Grains Report 09/12/2024

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly corn and soybean production and supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. 2024 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA August USDA 2023
Corn Production 15,154 14,974-15,932 15,147 15,342
Soybean Production 4,609 4,477-4,740 4,589 4,165
Corn Yield 182.7 180.5-184.0 183.1 177.3
Soybean Yield 53.4 52.0-54.9 53.2 50.6
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2023-24
Average Range USDA August
Corn 1,853 1,817-1,899 1,867
Soybeans 343 330-371 345
2024-25
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,009 1,819-2,120 2,073
Soybeans 584 525-670 560
Wheat 820 800-835 828
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA August
Corn 308.2 307.0-308.9 308.5
Soybeans 112.1 110.2-113.0 112.4
Wheat 262.5 262.3-263.0 262.4
2024-25
Average Range USDA August
Corn 309.0 307.4-311.0 310.2
Soybeans 134.2 133.0-135.0 134.3
Wheat 255.8 254.1-257.0 256.6

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 12
For the week ended Sep 5, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for rice and cotton began Aug 1. The
marketing year for soymeal and soyoil will begin Oct 1.
For corn, soybeans and sorghum, “this year” is the 2024-2025
marketing year, which began Sep 1, while “last year” is 2023-2024.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 474.9 -0.2 10766.0 8313.1 4624.1 0.0
hrw 71.0 0.0 2603.2 1491.2 1140.8 0.0
srw 10.0 0.0 1731.8 1917.1 681.8 0.0
hrs 235.4 -0.2 3542.4 2973.5 1518.3 0.0
white 157.2 0.0 2720.8 1690.7 1235.7 0.0
durum 1.3 0.0 167.9 240.5 47.5 0.0
corn 2120.3-a 0.0 13361.2 11159.9 12802.6 112.0
soybeans 2427.8-b 0.0 14244.4 16644.9 13930.2 0.0
soymeal -3.0 279.0 13888.6 12893.4 1462.5 3397.6
soyoil -0.5 1.7 233.6 126.6 31.3 20.7
upland cotton 116.1 0.0 4764.4 5379.3 4015.2 347.9
pima cotton 10.6 0.0 126.2 58.1 86.3 0.0
sorghum 80.5-c 0.0 609.8 1997.4 607.9 0.0
barley 1.6 0.0 21.7 16.0 19.9 0.0
rice 61.9 0.0 792.5 612.9 551.7 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Aug 27-31 which
resulted in a net increase of 666.5 thousand metric tons. Also includes
1453.8 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2023-2024.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Aug 27-31 which resulted in a
a net increase of 1474.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes
953.8 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2023-2024.
-c: Includes new sales activity for Aug 27-31 which resulted in
a net increase of 71.9 thousand metric tons. Also includes
8.6 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2023-20244.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep 13, 2024 17 Sep 09, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep 13, 2024 100 Aug 21, 2024
CORN September Sep 13, 2024 52 Sep 10, 2024
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 13, 2024 4 Sep 11, 2024
SOYBEAN September Sep 13, 2024 10 Sep 11, 2024
MINI-SIZED SOYBEANS September Sep 13, 2024 25 Aug 29, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher as world prices were stable amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were unchanged even as production estimates have dropped to about 82 million tons and prices in Europe have been near unchanged so far this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 560, 544, and 532 December, with resistance at 603, 615, and 642 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 566, 559, and 539 December, with resistance at 594, 607, and 618 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 602, 595, and 575 December, and resistance is at 630, 618, and 630 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday on a lack of offers in the cash market and some reports of rain in Arkansas. A hurricane came on shore yesterday near the Texas-Louisiana border and is bringing significant rain and wind to Rice lands. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state. However, planted area has increased from last year
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1499, 1466, and 1456 November and resistance is at 1520, 1534, and 1543 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed aa little higher, and Oats closed mixed yesterday on speculative short covering based on ideas that huge crops are already part of the price. Ideas are that USDA will show very strong yield and production potential for the crop this year. Producer selling of old crop supplies wrapped up last week before September First Notice Day last Friday and farmers plan to hold new crop supplies. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is just a few weeks away. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer.
Overnight News: Unknown desztinations bought 118626 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 402, 389, and 366 December, and resistance is at 416, 424, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 325, 314, and 305 December, and resistance is at 370, 375, and 390 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on speculative short covering tied to ideas that the production reports to be released later today could be the biggest of the year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest since early last week that could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. The weather is cooler now but it should remain dry. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is behind average. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 988, 973, and 960 November, and resistance is at 1032, 1042, and 1064 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 312.00, 306.00, and 304.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 344.00, and 347.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4020, 3940, and 3710 October, with resistance at 4200, 4300, and 4400 October.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday in anticipation of bearish MPOB data to be released later this week Futures traded higher today.. Production reports indicate that the increase in production is less than expected at this time but is rising. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was a little lower yesterday as the harvest is coming. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 565.00, 563.00, and 556.00 November, with resistance at 583.00, 606.00, and 611.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3860, 3820, and 3740 November, with resistance at 3950, 4020, and 4090 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sep 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 970.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 940.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 910.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 905.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 975.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 945.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 915.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 910.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 980.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 827.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 4,030.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 330.00 -06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.333)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 82,293 lots, or 3.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 – – – 4,438 4,438 4,438 0 0 0
Nov-24 4,350 4,379 4,350 4,362 4,350 4,365 15 4,133 17,807
Jan-25 4,308 4,318 4,290 4,308 4,289 4,304 15 75,952 131,298
Mar-25 4,229 4,238 4,215 4,229 4,209 4,228 19 1,371 15,158
May-25 4,250 4,255 4,232 4,246 4,228 4,243 15 674 8,032
Jul-25 4,195 4,199 4,180 4,192 4,173 4,190 17 163 3,323
Corn
Turnover: 679,277 lots, or 14.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 – – – 2,229 2,229 2,229 0 0 2
Nov-24 2,212 2,214 2,190 2,197 2,195 2,199 4 466,921 572,719
Jan-25 2,220 2,230 2,214 2,219 2,209 2,219 10 153,996 432,311
Mar-25 2,219 2,226 2,210 2,215 2,205 2,216 11 33,743 159,192
May-25 2,271 2,273 2,258 2,263 2,254 2,262 8 14,312 71,820
Jul-25 2,282 2,282 2,268 2,274 2,266 2,272 6 10,305 39,483
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,582,228 lots, or 47.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 3,030 3,030 3,030 3,030 3,039 3,030 -9 7 262
Nov-24 3,078 3,083 3,039 3,063 3,057 3,059 2 91,505 375,477
Dec-24 3,074 3,080 3,041 3,064 3,054 3,058 4 9,977 115,427
Jan-25 3,055 3,064 3,027 3,051 3,037 3,044 7 1,194,266 1,353,889
Mar-25 2,963 2,966 2,935 2,954 2,939 2,949 10 11,324 112,229
May-25 2,870 2,874 2,846 2,862 2,850 2,859 9 258,061 1,047,846
Jul-25 2,869 2,872 2,845 2,864 2,848 2,858 10 12,351 99,294
Aug-25 2,962 2,965 2,938 2,954 2,945 2,951 6 4,737 45,752
Palm Oil
Turnover: 861,878 lots, or 67.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,784 8,150 7,784 7,802 7,656 7,970 314 195 545
Oct-24 7,938 7,962 7,810 7,916 7,918 7,894 -24 6,214 4,714
Nov-24 7,956 7,956 7,802 7,904 7,890 7,884 -6 6,319 9,356
Dec-24 7,910 7,934 7,784 7,880 7,864 7,892 28 171 588
Jan-25 7,858 7,888 7,720 7,828 7,822 7,818 -4 801,742 464,865
Feb-25 7,828 7,836 7,730 7,794 7,792 7,802 10 60 347
Mar-25 7,804 7,834 7,690 7,788 7,778 7,772 -6 413 3,534
Apr-25 7,790 7,794 7,662 7,744 7,756 7,754 -2 55 308
May-25 7,752 7,758 7,604 7,700 7,708 7,692 -16 46,659 112,938
Jun-25 7,676 7,678 7,568 7,650 7,664 7,626 -38 18 117
Jul-25 7,606 7,618 7,528 7,598 7,598 7,580 -18 25 146
Aug-25 7,544 7,548 7,510 7,548 7,560 7,530 -30 7 28
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 660,762 lots, or 50.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,662 7,600 -62 1 1,917
Nov-24 7,696 7,704 7,562 7,642 7,654 7,632 -22 17,849 25,766
Dec-24 7,712 7,714 7,586 7,674 7,664 7,658 -6 965 4,506
Jan-25 7,700 7,704 7,568 7,660 7,654 7,638 -16 589,773 596,022
Mar-25 7,610 7,612 7,490 7,566 7,562 7,558 -4 370 4,535
May-25 7,422 7,432 7,304 7,388 7,380 7,372 -8 51,628 210,764
Jul-25 7,332 7,332 7,226 7,302 7,294 7,274 -20 151 853
Aug-25 7,348 7,348 7,240 7,310 7,308 7,298 -10 25 173
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322