Softs Report 09/10/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on speculative selling and ideas that the weather in southern states was going to improve this week. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. Speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions as there have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now even after some very hot weather, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Moderate temperatures are likely for the Delta and Southeast this week and rain is forecast for parts of Texas. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Futures are now as cheap as they have been for several years.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 67.40, 66.30, and 65.70 December, with resistance of 69.40, 71.30 and 73.00 December.

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Bolls Opening 45 37 40 40
Cotton Harvested 8 7 6
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 12 16 32 34 6
Cotton Last Week 11 14 32 38 6
Cotton Last Year 18 23 30 24 5

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ surged higher yesterday on follow through buying as ideas of reduced production continue and as forecasts call for limited tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic. Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this week and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida but one is headed fr the Texas-Louisiana border area. A very active year has been forecast but has yet to come true. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil is hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 468.00, 452.00, and 438.00 November, with resistance at a 496.00, 502.00, and 508.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply higher yesterday in recovery trading from the losses seen on Friday on speculative selling and with offers from Vietnam and Indonesia still hard to find but offers from Brazil in the market. Indonesian offers are now less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes but offers have been strong so far this season. It is very dry in Brazil right now. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is now 243.88 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 234.00, 229.00, and 226.00 December, and resistance is at 248.00, 252.00 and 259.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4660, 4620, and 4530 November, with resistance at 4970, 5180, and 5240 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation and some reports of commercial selling from Brazil. Chinese demand is a problem amid the economic problems seen there. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed to allow any exports. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are strong but should start falling soon.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1850, 1780, and 1720 October and resistance is at 1940, 1960, and 1990 October. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 517.00, 513.00, and 508.00 October, with resistance at 536.00, 547.00, and 549.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday as tight supply conditions continue but production for the next crop looks to be improved. The market has rejected a new leg down on the daily charts and is back solidly in the previous trading range. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently dry weather in Ivory Coast. Ghana has had hot and dry conditions and there are reports that pods are being aborted. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 6820 and 6020 December. Support is at 6600, 6000, and 5870 December, with resistance at 7610, 7940, and 8240 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4870, 4850, and 4790 December, with resistance at 5510, 5690, and 5800 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322