Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Farm Payrolls, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Unemployment Rate at 7:30 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 7:45 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 10:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., Dairy Products at 2:00 P.M., and Total Vehicle Sales.
This morning The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release nonfarm payroll and other jobs. Yesterday’s ADP payrolls showed that private businesses added fewer than expected jobs in August. Private businesses added 99,000 jobs during the month , which was 23,000 fewer in July and 46,000 jobs below the consensus. It was also the slowest monthly job growth since January 2021 and the lowest for August since 2020. Confidence in the BLS nonfarm payroll data has been lower over the last 2 years, as alleged job growth has repeatedly outperformed never underperformed expectations and never underperformed expectations and never underperformed. This skepticism was justified last month when the BLS revised 2023 nonfarm payroll was revised lower by 818,000 jobs! (Are you kidding me?) The US job market is slowing and is the focus of the US Central Bank going forward.
Weather Discussion – Central US Pattern Flash Drought Emerges in Mid-South; Dryness Deepens in E Midwest; Hurricanes Complicate Extended Range Forecasts:
The Central US forecast is broadly consistent with prior runs, though the AI model potential for tropical storm-based rainfall in the Eastern Midwest in the 9 to15 day period. This week’s drought monitor showed an expansion/intensification of abnormal dryness & drought across southern IL, the E Midwest, and KY, but moisture improvement in TX. Drought has developed as forecast across the Southeast, TN, and KY. Next week’s drought monitor will feature additional expansion in abnormal dryness across the E Midwest, while drought in OH is likely to be upgraded to extreme. 10-day forecasts remain arid. Temps warm after this weekend with highs in the low/mid-80’s to be widespread, Record heat is possible across the Pacific Northwest in the next 48 hours. Further Ag Resources (ARC) advises caution against committing to any extended range outlook. The National Hurricane Center on Thursday identifies five potential events – one of which impacts the Gulf Coast this weekend and two without clear paths. However, a stagnant pattern of dryness is most probable into Seo 14-15. Meaningful net soil moisture loss is forecast across the Upper Great Lakes, MO, TN, and KY. Recent warmth/dryness has accelerated crop maturity. On the margin, this harms yield potential and ARC expects some 25-30% of US corn and soybean crops will be harvested by Oct 1st.
Tropical storm/hurricane activity will be watched closely Sep 15th onward. Ag Resources estimates US corn yield at 181.1 BPA, 1.6 BPA below NASS’s initial forecast. Yield growth will be capped across the Midwest amid disease pressure/regional weather issues, and ARC notes each 5 BPA trimmed from IL lowers national yield by a full bushel. And ARC estimates IL corn yield in 2024 at 217, still a record but down 8 BPA from USDA.
Will The Fed Cut ¼ or a ½ – Or Too Late Market Closed. The Corn & Ethanol Report 09/06/2024
We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Farm Payrolls, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Unemployment Rate at 7:30 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 7:45 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 10:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., Dairy Products at 2:00 P.M., and Total Vehicle Sales.
This morning The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release nonfarm payroll and other jobs. Yesterday’s ADP payrolls showed that private businesses added fewer than expected jobs in August. Private businesses added 99,000 jobs during the month , which was 23,000 fewer in July and 46,000 jobs below the consensus. It was also the slowest monthly job growth since January 2021 and the lowest for August since 2020. Confidence in the BLS nonfarm payroll data has been lower over the last 2 years, as alleged job growth has repeatedly outperformed never underperformed expectations and never underperformed expectations and never underperformed. This skepticism was justified last month when the BLS revised 2023 nonfarm payroll was revised lower by 818,000 jobs! (Are you kidding me?) The US job market is slowing and is the focus of the US Central Bank going forward.
Weather Discussion – Central US Pattern Flash Drought Emerges in Mid-South; Dryness Deepens in E Midwest; Hurricanes Complicate Extended Range Forecasts:
The Central US forecast is broadly consistent with prior runs, though the AI model potential for tropical storm-based rainfall in the Eastern Midwest in the 9 to15 day period. This week’s drought monitor showed an expansion/intensification of abnormal dryness & drought across southern IL, the E Midwest, and KY, but moisture improvement in TX. Drought has developed as forecast across the Southeast, TN, and KY. Next week’s drought monitor will feature additional expansion in abnormal dryness across the E Midwest, while drought in OH is likely to be upgraded to extreme. 10-day forecasts remain arid. Temps warm after this weekend with highs in the low/mid-80’s to be widespread, Record heat is possible across the Pacific Northwest in the next 48 hours. Further Ag Resources (ARC) advises caution against committing to any extended range outlook. The National Hurricane Center on Thursday identifies five potential events – one of which impacts the Gulf Coast this weekend and two without clear paths. However, a stagnant pattern of dryness is most probable into Seo 14-15. Meaningful net soil moisture loss is forecast across the Upper Great Lakes, MO, TN, and KY. Recent warmth/dryness has accelerated crop maturity. On the margin, this harms yield potential and ARC expects some 25-30% of US corn and soybean crops will be harvested by Oct 1st.
Tropical storm/hurricane activity will be watched closely Sep 15th onward. Ag Resources estimates US corn yield at 181.1 BPA, 1.6 BPA below NASS’s initial forecast. Yield growth will be capped across the Midwest amid disease pressure/regional weather issues, and ARC notes each 5 BPA trimmed from IL lowers national yield by a full bushel. And ARC estimates IL corn yield in 2024 at 217, still a record but down 8 BPA from USDA.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn