Softs Report 09/04/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher in range trading yesterday an trends started to turn up again as the overall situation is bullish with reduced production potential again this year and slightly improving demand. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. Speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions as there have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now even after some vey hot weather, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Moderate temperatures are likely for the Delta and Southeast this week. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 69.20, 67.40, and 66.30 December, with resistance of 71.30, 73.00 and 73.70 December.

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Bolls Opening 37 25 30 31
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 11 12 32 34 6
Cotton Last Week 12 16 32 34 6
Cotton Last Year 19 22 28 26 5

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher yesterday as ideas of reduced production continue and on reports of stronger demand as forecasts call for no tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic. Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this week as the current tropical system should stay in the ocean and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida. A very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 452.00, 438.00, and 432.00 November, with resistance at a 471.00, 488.00, and 494.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week with offers from Vietnam and Indonesia still hard to find but offers from Brazil are in the market. Indonesian offers are now less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes but offers have been strong so far this season. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 241.00, 234.00, and 229.00 December, and resistance is at 252.00, 259.00 and 265.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4660, 4620, and 4530 November, with resistance at 5180, 5240, and 5300 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying. Chinese demand in particular is in focus amid the economic problems seen there. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are strong but should start falling but not enough to impact prices much. The ISO forecast on Friday there would be a global sugar deficit of 3.58 million metric tons for the coming marketing year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 1910, 1890, and 1850 October and resistance is at 1990, 2040, and 2080 October. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 533.00, 526.00, and 517.00 October, with resistance at 562.00, 570.00, and 581.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday as tight supply conditions continue but production for the next crop looks to be improved. Some production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently dry weather in Ivory Coast. Ghana has had hot and dry conditions and there are reports that pods are being aborted. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 6820 and 6020 December. Support is at 7220, 6850, and 6600 December, with resistance at 7610, 7940, and 8240 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5210, 5060, and 5110 December, with resistance at 5440, 5510, and 5680 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322