AgMaster Report 09/04/2024

DEC CORN

LOW PRICES EVENTUALLY CURE LOW PRICES! It happens every time & now this year the old commodity axiom is once again being validated! Record yields have driven corn prices down to 4-year lows -where they have begun to attract exports – and justifiably so as US corn is the cheapest anywhere on the planet! And a plummeting US Dollar has made US exports even more attractive! Just last week, we had 7 announced Flash Sales of corn & beans – & one more today! Monday Inspections & Thursday export sales are running well above average! A recent dry spell in the US Farm Belt has taken the top end off the yields! Finally, non-US countries production have been trimmed by drought in S/A, the EU & the B/S!

 

NOV BEANS

Nov Beans actually turned the corner right after the PRO FARMER TOUR ended on 8-23-24! They estimated bean yield at 54.9bpa up from the USDA’s 53.2 on 8-12-24 – yet the mkt was unable to take out its 955 low posted right after the August WASDE! That indicated the mkt felt enough record yield was already baked into the price! Plus, dry weather in the Central US in the past few weeks has taken the high-end yield out of the equation! Finally, with beans driven down to 4-yr lows, the US is the best deal around & the spate of flash sales last week & today is solid evidence of that! Drought has afflicted other bean-growing areas globally – reducing their export potential! And the lower US Dollar is just sweetening the pot

 

DEC WHT

Dec Wht’s nearly vertical 70 cent upsurge has been the beneficiary of many positive fundamentals – a seasonal tendency to bottom in Sept, spill-over support from corn & beans, strong exports, higher European cash, drought in various countries & a strong technical upside reversal last week! 4-year lows seem to be enough as the contract has plummeted over $3.00 since last summer!

 

DEC CAT

Despite concerns about increased carcass weights & waning demand after Labor Day, Dec cat rallied to last weeks high as consumers came back to the supermarkets after the long holiday W/E in a buying mood! As well, exports have been running above average in recent weeks! But it appears beef will eventually succumb to seasonally weaker demand & much cheaper pork cuts!

 

DEC HOGS

 Dec Hog’s stunning $10 rally in the past 3 weeks established it as the new upside leader in the Meat Complex & was fueled by steady demand in the supermarket due to its cheaper price & a reduction in stocks – as reflected in the most recent Cold Storage Report! In this age of rampant inflation, the very cost-cautious consumer is opting for the inexpensive pork cuts versus the expensive beef! General meat demand will seasonally wane after LD but not as much for pork!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337