Softs Report 09/03/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower in range trading last week as the overall situation is bullish with reduced production potential again this year and slightly improving demand. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. Speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions as there have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Moderate temperatures are likely for the Delta and Southeast this week after a very hot week last week. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 67.40, 66.30, and 65.80 December, with resistance of 71.30, 73.00 and 73.70 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 264,657
: Positions :
: 27,410 83,042 63,489 79,778 83,016 79,486 20,203 250,164 249,749: 14,494 14,908
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -3,453) :
: -2,888 -6,473 -614 -454 3,566 925 273 -3,030 -3,248: -422 -205
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.4 31.4 24.0 30.1 31.4 30.0 7.6 94.5 94.4: 5.5 5.6
: Total Traders: 310 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 109 93 64 61 45 21 241 227:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower last week on apparent speculative selling ahead of Frist Notice Day and as ideas of reduced production continue against reports of stronger demand as forecasts call for no tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic. Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this week as the current tropical system should stay in the ocean and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida. A very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 438.00, 432.00, and 415.00 November, with resistance at a 471.00, 488.00, and 494.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,851 :
: Positions :
: 1,257 7,233 775 0 83 3,535 388 29 1,162 471 2,474 :
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 :
: -19 473 -17 0 47 373 -74 23 -34 -70 209 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.6 61.0 6.5 0.0 0.7 29.8 3.3 0.2 9.8 4.0 20.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 54 :
: 6 7 4 0 . 21 . . 11 7 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week with offers from Vietnam and Indonesia still hard to find but offers from Brazil are in the market. Indonesian offers are now less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes but offers have been strong so far this season. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 247.83 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 241.00, 234.00, and 229.00 December, and resistance is at 252.00, 259.00 and 265.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4730, 4660, and 4620 November, with resistance at 5180, 5240, and 5300 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 237,379
: Positions :
: 55,788 12,591 57,952 51,687 151,046 63,081 10,498 228,509 232,087: 8,870 5,292
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,562) :
: 384 661 1,441 -1,745 1,432 3,235 -180 3,316 3,355: 247 207
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.5 5.3 24.4 21.8 63.6 26.6 4.4 96.3 97.8: 3.7 2.2
: Total Traders: 383 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 126 68 105 87 120 51 20 311 275:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on what appeared to be speculative and commercial buying. Unica reported on Wednesday that sugar production in the Cener-South of Brazil totaled 3.11 million metric tons, down 10.2% from last year. Chinese demand in particular is in focus amid the economic problems seen there. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are strong but should start falling but not enough to impact prices much. The ISO forecast there would be a global sugar deficit of 3.58 million metric tons for the coming marketing year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 1920, 1890, and 1850 October and resistance is at 1990, 2040, and 2080 October. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 533.00, 526.00, and 517.00 October, with resistance at 562.00, 570.00, and 581.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,002,177
: Positions :
: 80,067 117,184 229,130 401,632 533,783 224,392 61,121 935,220 941,218: 66,956 60,959
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: 28,133) :
: 1,557 -27,248 9,720 6,972 51,717 8,474 3,568 26,722 37,756: 1,411 -9,623
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.0 11.7 22.9 40.1 53.3 22.4 6.1 93.3 93.9: 6.7 6.1
: Total Traders: 243 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 59 84 74 71 40 20 212 194:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower last week as tight supply conditions continue. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently dry weather in Ivory Coast. Ghana has had hot and dry conditions and there are reports that pods are being aborted. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7490, 7180, and 6850 December, with resistance at 8240, 8550, and 9000 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5210, 51120, and 5060 December, with resistance at 5510, 5680, and 5800 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 193,370
: Positions :
: 29,534 17,870 71,288 49,449 84,217 31,266 15,241 181,537 188,616: 11,833 4,754
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: 7,980) :
: 1,389 376 2,415 2,699 5,641 1,496 400 7,999 8,833: -19 -853
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.3 9.2 36.9 25.6 43.6 16.2 7.9 93.9 97.5: 6.1 2.5
: Total Traders: 173 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 36 65 33 34 30 14 157 121:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322