Grains Report 09/03/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 03
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep 04, 2024 227 Aug 21, 2024
CORN September Sep 04, 2024 12 Jun 12, 2024
SOYBEAN September Sep 04, 2024 6 Aug 01, 2024
WHEAT September Sep 04, 2024 132 Aug 26, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in all three markets last week on stable overseas prices reported in Russia and Europe and the wrap up of the Wheat harvest and reports of reduced cash movement here in the US. Ideas of good crops in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 532, 521, and 514 December, with resistance at 560, 575, and 581 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 539, 527, and 520 December, with resistance at 573, 584, and 595 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 575, 563, and 552 December, and resistance is at 612, 618, and 630 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 445,562
: Positions :
: 71,251 156,655 109,710 96,907 93,714 132,033 47,614 409,901 407,691: 35,662 37,871
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -47,193) :
: 6,255 14,870 -47,010 -6,831 -11,176 475 -1,979 -47,111 -45,295: -82 -1,899
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.0 35.2 24.6 21.7 21.0 29.6 10.7 92.0 91.5: 8.0 8.5
: Total Traders: 381 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 110 120 107 98 48 33 309 298:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 252,994
: Positions :
: 36,590 73,705 50,420 58,200 77,172 90,364 31,165 235,574 232,462: 17,421 20,532
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -12,333) :
: 4,046 1,490 -6,904 -6,435 -2,193 -1,222 -1,393 -10,515 -9,001: -1,818 -3,332
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.5 29.1 19.9 23.0 30.5 35.7 12.3 93.1 91.9: 6.9 8.1
: Total Traders: 258 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 63 60 82 78 38 24 203 194:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 80,116 :
: Positions :
: 45,683 21,293 3,817 442 73 6,904 33,152 6,494 2,333 3,312 3,521 :
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 :
: 788 -1,342 244 87 20 312 1,914 2,040 544 1,510 -1,317 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.0 26.6 4.8 0.6 0.1 8.6 41.4 8.1 2.9 4.1 4.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 126 :
: 57 41 7 . . 8 25 12 11 8 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed little changed last week after failing to sustain a move higher and what appeared to be speculator selling in September before First Notice Day. The back months were lower as the trade felt the ongoing harvest. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as a result as the harvest moves forward. However, planted area has increased from last year
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1472, 1466, and 1456 November and resistance is at 1504, 1520, and 1532 November

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,349 :
: Positions :
: 5,494 4,917 0 229 0 507 2,336 0 1,384 152 574 :
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 :
: -102 -387 -52 -4 0 86 97 -44 -63 10 -281 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 58.8 52.6 0.0 2.4 0.0 5.4 25.0 0.0 14.8 1.6 6.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 20 12 0 . 0 5 11 0 15 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher last week on speculative buying and some commercial buying as cooler and dry weather was reported in just about all of the Midwest and is forecast for the week. Producer selling of old crop supplies wrapped up last week before September First Notice Day last Friday. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is just a few weeks away. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest for the next week or longer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 389, 366, and 360 December, and resistance is at 403, 408, and 416 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 325, 314, and 305 December, and resistance is at 339, 351, and 361 December

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,777,126
: Positions :
: 165,870 364,574 514,568 533,684 514,868 382,420 151,106 1,596,542 1,545,116: 180,584 232,009
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -227,922) :
: 11,585 -16,091 -142,837 -65,313 -29,401 -31,299 -32,227 -227,865 -220,556: -57 -7,366
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.3 20.5 29.0 30.0 29.0 21.5 8.5 89.8 86.9: 10.2 13.1
: Total Traders: 779 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 135 161 192 350 318 51 35 644 620:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,883 :
: Positions :
: 1,853 871 175 462 17 81 1,463 0 638 426 148 :
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 :
: -300 -271 5 -13 -2 81 -87 0 92 -106 -10 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 37.9 17.8 3.6 9.5 0.3 1.7 30.0 0.0 13.1 8.7 3.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 30 :
: 8 6 . . . . 5 0 6 4 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher last week on speculative buying. Stronger demand news and First Notice Day last Friday were reasons to trade the market. There is also concern about the hot and dry weather seen in the Midwest early last week that could hurt pod fill. The weather is turning cooler now but it should remain dry. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is begind average. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons f US Soybeans and has slapped tariffs on Canadian Canola and Canola products due to the Canadian government moves to increase tariff on Chinese EV.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 973, 961, and 955 November, and resistance is at 1013, 1032, and 1042 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 306.00, 304.00, and 299.00 October, and resistance is at 314.00, 320.00, and 323.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 4110, 4020, and 3940 October, with resistance at 4310, 4400, and 4520 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,044,645
: Positions :
: 47,396 217,552 297,734 445,133 341,144 193,734 107,664 983,997 964,093: 60,648 80,552
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -54,143) :
: 3,103 2,249 -53,307 -15,553 -601 -2,436 -8,532 -68,193 -60,191: 14,050 6,048
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.5 20.8 28.5 42.6 32.7 18.5 10.3 94.2 92.3: 5.8 7.7
: Total Traders: 565 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 99 169 177 205 203 50 30 465 475:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 583,828
: Positions :
: 72,030 138,914 114,415 215,043 260,916 149,822 42,224 551,309 556,469: 32,519 27,359
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -50,317) :
: -2,343 -13,978 -23,559 -21,498 -4,639 -2,124 -7,496 -49,524 -49,672: -793 -645
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.3 23.8 19.6 36.8 44.7 25.7 7.2 94.4 95.3: 5.6 4.7
: Total Traders: 350 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 96 98 111 93 42 23 282 255:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 575,331
: Positions :
: 64,659 87,849 139,123 180,075 283,743 138,986 34,845 522,843 545,560: 52,489 29,771
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -19,160) :
: 621 -1,655 -14,596 -8,513 -1,268 4,198 -907 -18,290 -18,427: -871 -734
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.2 15.3 24.2 31.3 49.3 24.2 6.1 90.9 94.8: 9.1 5.2
: Total Traders: 343 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 81 99 123 109 41 24 286 270:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on hopes of improving demand as Indonesia intends to increase its use of Palm Oil in its biofuels blends and increase biofuels to 40% of consumption. It could become 50% if the new president gets his way. Production reports indicate that the increase in production is less than expected at this time. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was higher and trends remain up on ideas of reduced supplies even with the harvest starting soon. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 602.00, 590.00, and 581.00 November, with resistance at 629.00, 668.00, and 681.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Supp with no objectives. Support is at 3900, 3870, and 3820 November, with resistance at 4020, 4090, and 415aq0 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 47,566 :
: Positions :
: 36,746 15,255 840 17,627 580 720 2,015 250 305 3,724 8,095 :
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 :
: 1,580 500 120 90 20 200 0 80 -175 1,155 -245 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 77.3 32.1 1.8 37.1 1.2 1.5 4.2 0.5 0.6 7.8 17.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 34 :
: 9 10 . 6 4 . . . . 11 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 327,387 :
: Positions :
: 263,518 110,124 4,244 16,156 1,178 9,164 153,788 18,386 16,929 12,510 12,541 :
: Changes from: August 20, 2024 :
: -4,149 4,504 1,291 -316 144 -1,593 -8,862 797 -690 -287 -1,043 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 80.5 33.6 1.3 4.9 0.4 2.8 47.0 5.6 5.2 3.8 3.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 341 :
: 63 76 4 7 5 15 87 22 40 85 53 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian pworts
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 965.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 942.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 927.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 917.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 970.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 947.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 932.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 922.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 990.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 845.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 4050.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 345.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.365)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 96,310 lots, or 4.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,440 4,441 4,440 4,440 4,428 4,440 12 505 4,065
Nov-24 4,313 4,353 4,313 4,348 4,324 4,335 11 5,002 22,742
Jan-25 4,263 4,296 4,254 4,293 4,267 4,274 7 86,832 126,685
Mar-25 4,182 4,220 4,177 4,220 4,208 4,201 -7 1,934 14,845
May-25 4,218 4,255 4,206 4,252 4,235 4,235 0 1,648 8,734
Jul-25 4,170 4,207 4,160 4,205 4,189 4,192 3 389 3,400
Corn
Turnover: 1,024,272 lots, or 23.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,309 2,309 2,271 2,280 2,309 2,289 -20 7,050 9,215
Nov-24 2,284 2,287 2,261 2,272 2,314 2,273 -41 660,198 579,375
Jan-25 2,275 2,275 2,250 2,258 2,288 2,259 -29 246,239 456,132
Mar-25 2,260 2,265 2,242 2,250 2,281 2,252 -29 51,023 153,445
May-25 2,298 2,307 2,282 2,288 2,326 2,293 -33 37,236 53,524
Jul-25 2,302 2,315 2,289 2,296 2,326 2,299 -27 22,526 27,685
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,472,106 lots, or 10.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 3,001 3,070 2,996 3,050 2,987 3,015 28 2,398 3,415
Nov-24 3,053 3,146 3,037 3,092 3,035 3,078 43 195,552 422,496
Dec-24 3,052 3,146 3,041 3,091 3,038 3,084 46 16,204 99,398
Jan-25 3,035 3,132 3,021 3,070 3,021 3,061 40 2,652,460 1,525,956
Mar-25 2,931 3,023 2,925 2,968 2,935 2,960 25 17,109 100,730
May-25 2,850 2,932 2,839 2,883 2,848 2,870 22 546,116 1,013,509
Jul-25 2,869 2,947 2,855 2,900 2,865 2,892 27 31,476 107,588
Aug-25 2,975 3,038 2,956 3,001 2,970 2,987 17 10,791 39,621
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,233,090 lots, or 98.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 8,000 8,000 7,994 7,994 8,112 8,004 -108 17 613
Oct-24 7,956 8,154 7,934 8,050 7,996 8,040 44 20,718 14,889
Nov-24 7,950 8,154 7,916 8,042 7,976 8,028 52 6,938 7,405
Dec-24 7,962 8,128 7,904 8,030 7,988 8,004 16 781 621
Jan-25 7,920 8,128 7,876 7,998 7,956 7,986 30 1,124,113 541,882
Feb-25 7,898 8,068 7,872 7,982 7,962 7,974 12 115 453
Mar-25 7,890 8,096 7,854 7,962 7,920 8,002 82 296 3,302
Apr-25 7,868 8,050 7,848 7,934 7,902 7,954 52 60 272
May-25 7,806 8,042 7,774 7,904 7,836 7,900 64 79,953 108,792
Jun-25 7,748 7,964 7,734 7,848 7,800 7,856 56 44 119
Jul-25 7,724 7,906 7,676 7,778 7,734 7,804 70 41 149
Aug-25 7,682 7,788 7,642 7,746 7,700 7,712 12 14 22
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 974,766 lots, or 75.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 – – – 7,766 7,766 7,766 0 0 4,216
Nov-24 7,654 7,866 7,640 7,792 7,704 7,758 54 24,211 27,715
Dec-24 7,674 7,882 7,658 7,810 7,740 7,796 56 1,877 3,935
Jan-25 7,652 7,878 7,638 7,798 7,718 7,752 34 822,694 630,620
Mar-25 7,594 7,790 7,570 7,720 7,686 7,686 0 653 4,071
May-25 7,464 7,656 7,434 7,572 7,530 7,548 18 124,823 188,849
Jul-25 7,386 7,526 7,340 7,454 7,406 7,458 52 338 737
Aug-25 7,336 7,520 7,336 7,440 7,374 7,464 90 170 88
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322