Grains Report 08/22/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 22
For the week ended Aug 15, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 492.7 0.0 9420.7 7175.7 5034.2 45.2
hrw 116.4 0.0 2257.4 1351.9 1127.0 0.0
srw 130.5 0.0 1582.6 1707.5 916.4 0.0
hrs 63.4 0.0 3135.9 2595.7 1791.1 0.2
white 182.0 0.0 2284.2 1400.7 1136.2 45.0
durum 0.4 0.0 160.7 120.0 63.5 0.0
corn 119.1 1291.2 55935.6 40526.0 4035.8 7924.4
soybeans -43.7 1676.9 45894.5 53325.3 2413.5 7542.1
soymeal -20.1 136.4 13829.5 12736.2 1929.7 2255.0
soyoil 10.5 0.1 231.1 129.8 37.7 15.6
upland cotton 93.0 4.9 4305.6 5165.4 3983.9 338.8
pima cotton 8.2 0.0 83.6 49.8 68.3 0.0
sorghum 6.9 65.0 5858.1 2766.8 230.7 208.3
barley 0.0 0.0 20.1 16.1 18.3 0.0
rice 19.8 0.0 665.8 474.8 538.1 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets on stable overseas prices reported in Russia and Europe against the wrap up of the Wheat harvest and reports of cash movement here in the US. US harvest progress and ideas of good crops went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 519, 514, and 508 September, with resistance at 536, 548, and 552 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 531, 528, and 522 September, with resistance at 559, 567, and 579 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 579, 574, and 568 September, and resistance is at 601, 613, and 629 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be farm selling as the harvest moves along to completion. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as a result as the harvest moves forward. However, planted area has increased from last year and so most are looking for a rebound in production this year
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1472, 1453, and 1449 September and resistance is at 1504, 1509, and 1516 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed little changed and Oats closed mostly a little higher yesterday in quiet trading. Oats rallied to the upper end of the recent trading range. The Pro Farmer crop tour has started and found good Corn and Soybeans crops in Illinois but slightly less yield potential than USDA for the current year. The crops in Opwa showed very good yield potential. Yields for both states were calculated to be slightly below USDA estimates. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Corn and Mexico bought 110,490 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 367, 364, and 361 September, and resistance is at 385, 390, and 402 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 323, 315, and 313 September, and resistance is at 336, 348, and 358 September

SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on speculative short covering generated by a stronger demand news and news from the Pro Farmer crop tour. Trader reported good production potential from the Pro Farmer crop tour in Illinois and Iowa. Pod counts were a little below current USDA estimates. This week should be dry and temperatures should turn warmer later this week amid dry weather and western areas should stay warm and dry. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US as well. Mexico bought US Soybeans this week. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News: Vietnam bought 105,000 tons of US Soybean Meal and China bought 198,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 952, 939, and 928 September, and resistance is at 973, 1007, and 1018 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 309.00, 302.00, and 300.00 September, and resistance is at 323.00, 325.00, and 329.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3970, 3860, and 3800 September, with resistance at 4130, 4190, and 4360 September.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today along with Chicago price action. Production reports indicate that the increase in production is less than expected at this time. Indian imports of Palm Oil were the highest for the year in July. Exports are 834,948 tons so far this month. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was higher on ideas of increasing producer offers as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 562.00, 558.00, and 546.00 November, with resistance at 588.00, 581.00, and 598.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3670, 3640, and 3610 November, with resistance at 3780, 3810, and 3820 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 947.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 912.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 905.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 895.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 952.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 917.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 910.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 900.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 975.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 855.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 3,950.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 347.00 +06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.378)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 80,322 lots, or 3.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,458 4,467 4,446 4,447 4,455 4,456 1 6,752 15,942
Nov-24 4,328 4,339 4,318 4,323 4,328 4,330 2 2,596 25,756
Jan-25 4,230 4,238 4,215 4,216 4,222 4,225 3 62,509 162,890
Mar-25 4,171 4,172 4,142 4,147 4,164 4,156 -8 6,272 15,794
May-25 4,217 4,217 4,192 4,195 4,212 4,205 -7 1,974 7,977
Jul-25 4,189 4,190 4,166 4,167 4,184 4,181 -3 219 1,241
Corn
Turnover: 738,985 lots, or 17.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,327 2,335 2,320 2,333 2,313 2,329 16 59,378 107,341
Nov-24 2,301 2,325 2,298 2,324 2,290 2,311 21 476,060 633,186
Jan-25 2,280 2,300 2,278 2,299 2,270 2,287 17 164,135 431,755
Mar-25 2,253 2,276 2,253 2,275 2,248 2,265 17 22,039 128,386
May-25 2,297 2,315 2,297 2,315 2,290 2,304 14 11,622 45,242
Jul-25 2,300 2,317 2,298 2,317 2,291 2,306 15 5,751 16,646
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,459,613 lots, or 42.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,923 2,941 2,906 2,911 2,907 2,926 19 95,254 244,305
Nov-24 2,966 2,980 2,941 2,947 2,944 2,964 20 90,479 466,449
Dec-24 2,973 2,994 2,955 2,961 2,959 2,981 22 8,375 87,920
Jan-25 2,960 2,979 2,940 2,944 2,943 2,963 20 1,024,640 1,393,574
Mar-25 2,894 2,909 2,873 2,878 2,879 2,896 17 11,127 100,000
May-25 2,815 2,827 2,789 2,796 2,798 2,811 13 208,189 931,268
Jul-25 2,826 2,842 2,805 2,811 2,811 2,828 17 15,182 93,123
Aug-25 2,919 2,940 2,906 2,911 2,907 2,924 17 6,367 26,809
Palm Oil
Turnover: 954,963 lots, or 73.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,816 7,936 7,784 7,860 7,816 7,854 38 50,819 30,773
Oct-24 7,792 7,932 7,760 7,856 7,792 7,842 50 17,887 13,662
Nov-24 7,762 7,910 7,726 7,840 7,752 7,816 64 3,152 6,081
Dec-24 7,720 7,878 7,702 7,812 7,720 7,802 82 361 686
Jan-25 7,674 7,842 7,648 7,772 7,654 7,738 84 841,803 509,003
Feb-25 7,630 7,776 7,630 7,724 7,608 7,716 108 30 384
Mar-25 7,582 7,750 7,566 7,694 7,564 7,654 90 191 3,240
Apr-25 7,558 7,696 7,524 7,646 7,514 7,610 96 74 270
May-25 7,500 7,648 7,470 7,608 7,474 7,566 92 40,564 81,444
Jun-25 7,482 7,600 7,434 7,558 7,438 7,494 56 52 108
Jul-25 7,444 7,558 7,396 7,516 7,404 7,470 66 30 54
Aug-25 – – – 7,344 7,344 7,344 0 0 7
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 679,887 lots, or 50.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,446 7,476 7,358 7,400 7,420 7,430 10 53,801 57,437
Nov-24 7,470 7,502 7,380 7,440 7,424 7,450 26 15,470 24,251
Dec-24 7,482 7,516 7,406 7,456 7,446 7,468 22 679 2,947
Jan-25 7,460 7,492 7,366 7,424 7,416 7,442 26 559,515 613,869
Mar-25 7,376 7,422 7,310 7,364 7,362 7,380 18 610 4,361
May-25 7,262 7,286 7,176 7,232 7,226 7,242 16 49,681 163,208
Jul-25 7,276 7,292 7,188 7,230 7,240 7,248 8 126 487
Aug-25 7,302 7,318 7,292 7,310 7,242 7,308 66 5 10
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322