Demand Unease. The Energy Report 08/21/2024

Iran revolutionary guard spokesman said that a retaliation attack on Israel may take a long time so without a threat of a major OPEC oil producer getting into war the market’s focusing on demand    worries.
Even as the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported only a sling 347,000-barrel increase in crude supply the drop of 1.043 million barrels in gasoline supply and a drop of 2.247 million barrel in distillate should be supportive for crude.
Continued weakness in the crack spreads for both products suggests that the economy in the US may be slowing and the market is raising questions about a major downward revision in US jobs numbers may suggest that maybe the Fed was behind the curve in rate cuts.
Experts at Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo are predicting that the preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday will show that the economy created between 600,000 and 1 million fewer jobs than what was reported, according to Bloomberg News. Economists at JPMorgan Chase foresee a downward revision of around 360,000.
As predicted, peak oil demand predictions are looking less likely Bloomberg news reports Enbridge Inc. Chief Executive Officer Greg Ebel said oil demand may continue to grow in the decades ahead, putting his company’s internal assumptions among the more bullish forecasters of long-term crude usage.
Oil demand by 2050 will be “well north” of 100 million barrels a day and possibly exceed 110 million daily barrels, Ebel said Tuesday in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters. That contrasts with an International Energy Agency projection that demand will decline to 97 million barrels a day by mid-century.
Oil demand may plummet and prices for oil will soar if Kamala Harris gets her war. Zerohedge succinctly laid out her proposals.  Price Controls, 28% corporate tax, 44.6% capital gains tax, 25% tax on unrealized gains. St least she stole Trump’s idea of no taxes on tips. So, we got that going for us.

Summer is still hot. Natural gas futures are rebounding om hot forecasts and basking in last week’s supply withdrawal. This week we should get a 21 bcf increase but the heat may keep natural gas rising.
John Kemp at Reuters reported that US Colling demand has been higher than the long-term average so far this summer but slightly lower than recent “hot” summers since 2014. The Lower 48 states are three quarters of the way through the typical air-conditioning season. So far the total number of population-weighted cooling degree days is +9% above the long-term average for 1981-2010. But cooling degree days have been only +3% above the average for the last ten years and lower than other “hot” summers in 2022, 2020, 2018 and 2016.

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