Grains Report 08/19/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in Winter Wheat markets on selling seen in part on weaker overseas prices reported in Russia and Europe and less than inspiring weekly export sales reported by USDA. The USDA crop report also hurt Winter Sheat, but supported prices in Minneapolis which closed a little higher for the week. US harvest progress and ideas of good crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 520, 514, and 508 September, with resistance at 557, 581, and 592 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 528, 520, and 514 September, with resistance at 559, 567, and 579 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 579, 574, and 568 September, and resistance is at 601, 613, and 629 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 483,853
: Positions :
: 57,917 146,295 149,103 112,567 101,101 129,366 49,470 448,953 445,970: 34,900 37,883
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: -27,244) :
: 1,715 2,852 -9,114 -3,224 -844 -17,857 -19,109 -28,481 -26,216: 1,237 -1,029
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.0 30.2 30.8 23.3 20.9 26.7 10.2 92.8 92.2: 7.2 7.8
: Total Traders: 407 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 123 130 115 109 47 35 327 326:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 273,418
: Positions :
: 33,271 68,032 58,661 68,283 86,685 92,916 36,016 253,131 249,393: 20,287 24,025
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: -5,965) :
: 2,912 2,085 -2,683 -2,142 -204 -6,356 -5,792 -8,269 -6,594: 2,304 629
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 24.9 21.5 25.0 31.7 34.0 13.2 92.6 91.2: 7.4 8.8
: Total Traders: 242 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 49 54 65 76 74 37 24 193 190:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 77,661 :
: Positions :
: 44,534 21,200 3,651 174 162 6,211 31,906 5,258 1,975 1,349 3,874 :
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 :
: 865 -378 30 126 -323 549 1,107 -2,016 299 49 363 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.3 27.3 4.7 0.2 0.2 8.0 41.1 6.8 2.5 1.7 5.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 111 :
: 56 39 7 . . 10 19 12 7 7 9 :

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week and might have found some farm selling after a mid week rally. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as a result as the harvest moves forward. However, planted area has increased from last year and so most are looking for a rebound in production this year. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1449, 1431, and 1415 September and resistance is at 1509, 1516, and 1532 September

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,367 :
: Positions :
: 5,468 5,572 52 197 0 596 2,024 99 1,417 120 1,087 :
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 :
: 93 -29 52 197 0 -33 -74 29 84 101 57 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 52.7 53.7 0.5 1.9 0.0 5.7 19.5 1.0 13.7 1.2 10.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 64 :
: 21 16 . . 0 5 8 . 15 . 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower last week, with both crops showing very strong yield potential but Corn supported by USDA reducing harvested area and planted area and also increasing demand potential. The weekly USDA export sales report showed average sales. The increased demand came from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week. Pro Farmer is holding its annual Midwest crop tour this week and most traders expect the tourists to report top yields and record production potential given the USDA reports from last Monday and the weather outlooks.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 373, 370, and 367 September, and resistance is at 390, 402, and 409 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 316, 311, and 302 September, and resistance is at 336, 348, and 364 September

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,039,692
: Positions :
: 162,061 375,184 656,518 604,007 554,581 430,117 215,911 1,852,703 1,802,194: 186,989 237,498
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: 22,907) :
: 10,492 16,649 3,015 6,961 -16,490 2,312 13,832 22,781 17,007: 126 5,900
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 18.4 32.2 29.6 27.2 21.1 10.6 90.8 88.4: 9.2 11.6
: Total Traders: 808 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 156 156 205 360 330 54 38 674 648:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,194 :
: Positions :
: 2,148 1,095 177 471 7 0 1,528 0 594 430 188 :
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 :
: -48 -67 2 5 -2 0 36 0 65 104 56 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 41.4 21.1 3.4 9.1 0.1 0.0 29.4 0.0 11.4 8.3 3.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 27 :
: 9 6 . . . 0 6 0 4 . 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower last week despite a stronger than expected weekly export sales report from USDA. Soybean Oil was lower as the export sales report was not strong. Trader anticipate top production potential and traders expect the Pro Farmer crop tour to confirm these ideas this week. There was more beneficial precipitation in much of the Midwest over the last week. This week should be dry and temperatures should turn cooler amid dry weather this week. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil.
Overnight News: USDA said that 110,000 tons of US Soybeans were sold to unknown destinations and that 332,000 tonss of US Soybeans were received for delivery to China
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 940 928, and 914 September, and resistance is at 1007, 1018, and 1033 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 293.00 September. Support is at 298.00, 295.00, and 292.00 September, and resistance is at 313.00, 316.00, and 323.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3910, 3850, and 3800 September, with resistance at 4130, 4190, and 4360 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,128,030
: Positions :
: 48,814 212,854 384,883 453,716 344,022 191,429 111,627 1,078,842 1,053,387: 49,187 74,643
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: 85,466) :
: 4,744 4,766 54,669 21,717 9,038 4,279 12,127 85,410 80,600: 56 4,866
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.3 18.9 34.1 40.2 30.5 17.0 9.9 95.6 93.4: 4.4 6.6
: Total Traders: 558 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 107 165 182 190 189 46 25 456 461:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 615,765
: Positions :
: 62,735 149,447 142,934 232,161 252,336 146,894 43,428 584,724 588,145: 31,041 27,620
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: 14,249) :
: 1,826 5,182 344 11,449 5,735 1,794 2,405 15,413 13,666: -1,164 583
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.2 24.3 23.2 37.7 41.0 23.9 7.1 95.0 95.5: 5.0 4.5
: Total Traders: 355 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 91 101 114 97 41 25 290 265:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 602,441
: Positions :
: 62,145 86,496 161,490 191,834 283,418 133,111 37,305 548,580 568,710: 53,862 33,732
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: 28,641) :
: -14,679 23,056 9,458 33,873 -11,776 -2,959 4,664 25,693 25,402: 2,948 3,239
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.3 14.4 26.8 31.8 47.0 22.1 6.2 91.1 94.4: 8.9 5.6
: Total Traders: 334 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 84 88 125 104 38 26 271 262:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week despite reports of stronger export demand as Soybean Oil is lower. It was higher today on wehat was called bargain hunting. Indian imports of Palm Oil were the highest for the year in July. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was lower as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies, but growing conditions overall are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 560.00, 558.00, and 546.00 November, with resistance at 591.00, 607.00, and 617.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3670, 3640, and 3610 November, with resistance at 3730, 3740, and 3780 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 43,376 :
: Positions :
: 33,076 13,675 720 16,817 560 520 2,355 0 760 2,309 7,640 :
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 :
: 915 -565 0 840 0 -160 200 0 -280 120 260 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 76.3 31.5 1.7 38.8 1.3 1.2 5.4 0.0 1.8 5.3 17.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 9 11 . 5 . . . 0 . 6 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 325,575 :
: Positions :
: 261,753 110,538 2,830 15,875 993 13,186 151,176 15,702 17,306 16,252 12,080 :
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 :
: 18,315 424 -649 215 388 1,081 18,115 13 72 291 -519 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 80.4 34.0 0.9 4.9 0.3 4.1 46.4 4.8 5.3 5.0 3.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 351 :
: 64 72 4 7 4 12 96 20 45 86 52 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 940.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 890.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 882.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 875.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 945.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 895.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 887.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 880.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 960.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 850.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 3,950.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 345.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.379)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 84,317 lots, or 3.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,442 4,499 4,442 4,493 4,473 4,481 8 24,440 29,290
Nov-24 4,346 4,365 4,335 4,360 4,358 4,355 -3 3,967 22,986
Jan-25 4,256 4,268 4,248 4,252 4,262 4,256 -6 51,698 138,982
Mar-25 4,216 4,228 4,200 4,206 4,226 4,212 -14 2,865 9,191
May-25 4,255 4,266 4,246 4,250 4,268 4,255 -13 1,231 5,372
Jul-25 4,235 4,240 4,220 4,224 4,249 4,234 -15 116 786
Corn
Turnover: 825,303 lots, or 18.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,298 2,312 2,294 2,310 2,302 2,304 2 116,211 184,754
Nov-24 2,250 2,290 2,250 2,287 2,264 2,272 8 494,190 595,312
Jan-25 2,239 2,270 2,235 2,268 2,246 2,255 9 157,883 435,580
Mar-25 2,227 2,252 2,226 2,251 2,240 2,240 0 32,694 111,427
May-25 2,269 2,291 2,268 2,289 2,281 2,280 -1 12,341 32,031
Jul-25 2,277 2,296 2,273 2,294 2,286 2,285 -1 11,984 14,001
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,529,060 lots, or 44.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,900 2,938 2,894 2,902 2,912 2,913 1 198,909 388,499
Nov-24 2,938 2,971 2,924 2,933 2,952 2,945 -7 95,837 477,739
Dec-24 2,951 2,983 2,928 2,937 2,961 2,953 -8 9,807 86,926
Jan-25 2,931 2,961 2,908 2,917 2,947 2,932 -15 1,016,556 1,343,709
Mar-25 2,845 2,869 2,829 2,842 2,863 2,846 -17 11,154 99,859
May-25 2,761 2,785 2,752 2,762 2,778 2,766 -12 180,044 910,701
Jul-25 2,780 2,800 2,766 2,774 2,792 2,781 -11 13,021 89,617
Aug-25 2,876 2,884 2,852 2,863 2,878 2,868 -10 3,732 15,907
Palm Oil
Turnover: 909,776 lots, or 68.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,620 7,822 7,618 7,788 7,704 7,722 18 106,389 61,974
Oct-24 7,560 7,718 7,546 7,694 7,628 7,636 8 13,493 13,293
Nov-24 7,522 7,692 7,522 7,666 7,606 7,614 8 3,843 6,072
Dec-24 7,498 7,660 7,492 7,630 7,564 7,576 12 577 678
Jan-25 7,450 7,608 7,444 7,578 7,528 7,530 2 758,617 445,453
Feb-25 7,428 7,550 7,410 7,522 7,494 7,474 -20 73 397
Mar-25 7,388 7,520 7,372 7,500 7,436 7,454 18 195 3,254
Apr-25 7,344 7,450 7,338 7,448 7,400 7,396 -4 58 286
May-25 7,296 7,422 7,278 7,404 7,368 7,364 -4 26,463 79,332
Jun-25 7,306 7,384 7,298 7,384 7,350 7,334 -16 34 88
Jul-25 7,308 7,344 7,260 7,344 7,322 7,294 -28 32 50
Aug-25 7,270 7,292 7,270 7,292 7,290 7,280 -10 2 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 613,406 lots, or 45.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,330 7,432 7,322 7,402 7,402 7,388 -14 100,965 133,014
Nov-24 7,300 7,380 7,272 7,348 7,362 7,336 -26 10,477 30,783
Dec-24 7,320 7,418 7,302 7,388 7,396 7,378 -18 360 2,817
Jan-25 7,294 7,400 7,272 7,368 7,376 7,342 -34 473,577 579,550
Mar-25 7,238 7,336 7,214 7,310 7,314 7,290 -24 305 3,762
May-25 7,126 7,210 7,102 7,190 7,188 7,164 -24 27,687 146,678
Jul-25 7,150 7,206 7,110 7,206 7,202 7,158 -44 35 489
Aug-25 – – – 7,154 7,154 7,154 0 0 1
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322