Grains Report 08/16/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was a little lower yesterday on selling seen in part on weaker overseas prices reported in Russia and Europe and less than inspiring weekly export sales reported by USDA. US harvest progress and ideas of good crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 520, 514, and 508 September, with resistance at 557, 581, and 592 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 534, 528, and 520 September, with resistance at 567, 579, and 590 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 579, 574, and 568 September, and resistance is at 601, 613, and 629 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday and might have found some farm selling after the recent rally. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as a result as the harvest moves forward. However, planted area has increased from last year and so most are looking for a rebound in production this year. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1449, 1431, and 1415 September and resistance is at 1509, 1516, and 1532 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday, with both crops showing very strong yield potential but Corn supported by USDA reducing harvested area and planted area and also increasing demand potential. ZThe weekly USDA export sales report showed average sales. The increased demand came from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 373, 370, and 367 September, and resistance is at 390, 402, and 409 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 316, 311, and 302 September, and resistance is at 336, 348, and 364 September

SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher yesterday in response to a stronger than expected weekly export sales report from USDA. Soybean Oil was lower as the export sales report was not strong. There was more beneficial precipitation in much of the Midwest over the last week. This week should be dry and temperatures should turn cooler amid dry weather this week. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 940 928, and 914 September, and resistance is at 1007, 1018, and 1033 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 293.00 September. Support is at 298.00, 295.00, and 292.00 September, and resistance is at 313.00, 316.00, and 323.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3910, 3850, and 3800 September, with resistance at 4130, 4190, and 4360 September.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on reports of stronger export demand. Indian imports of Palm Oil were the highest for the year in July. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was lower as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies, but growing conditions overall are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 560.00, 558.00, and 546.00 November, with resistance at 591.00, 607.00, and 617.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3620, 3560, and 3500 October, with resistance at 3770, 3830, and 3880 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July 61 July 137 Sep
49 Sep
95 Aug

August 76 Sep 137 Sep 49 Sep 95 Nov

Sep 82 Sep 145 Sep 48 Sep 90 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 925.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 915.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 870.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 865.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 930.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 920.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 880.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 875.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 870.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 940.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 837.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 3,920.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 345.00 +19.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.431)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 136,305 lots, or 5.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,488 4,507 4,449 4,464 4,506 4,473 -33 43,952 38,939
Nov-24 4,345 4,376 4,338 4,347 4,370 4,358 -12 7,660 22,197
Jan-25 4,258 4,282 4,246 4,256 4,282 4,262 -20 79,757 128,884
Mar-25 4,229 4,248 4,212 4,218 4,251 4,226 -25 3,359 8,360
May-25 4,272 4,287 4,252 4,258 4,293 4,268 -25 1,427 4,754
Jul-25 4,249 4,262 4,230 4,230 4,274 4,249 -25 150 706
Corn
Turnover: 759,278 lots, or 17.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,305 2,313 2,291 2,299 2,292 2,302 10 188,209 231,198
Nov-24 2,274 2,278 2,252 2,254 2,265 2,264 -1 398,079 575,676
Jan-25 2,251 2,260 2,236 2,240 2,249 2,246 -3 125,747 439,648
Mar-25 2,244 2,253 2,227 2,230 2,244 2,240 -4 28,703 105,750
May-25 2,288 2,294 2,267 2,272 2,286 2,281 -5 8,855 29,160
Jul-25 2,292 2,300 2,273 2,275 2,291 2,286 -5 9,685 12,821
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,729,293 lots, or 50.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,888 2,940 2,886 2,906 2,887 2,912 25 253,607 433,043
Nov-24 2,936 2,981 2,928 2,941 2,930 2,952 22 124,093 469,258
Dec-24 2,956 2,991 2,939 2,957 2,949 2,961 12 10,974 86,417
Jan-25 2,930 2,975 2,926 2,936 2,938 2,947 9 1,069,542 1,309,294
Mar-25 2,857 2,882 2,842 2,849 2,855 2,863 8 15,011 99,966
May-25 2,773 2,794 2,763 2,770 2,782 2,778 -4 230,892 905,635
Jul-25 2,800 2,809 2,780 2,787 2,797 2,792 -5 15,558 88,633
Aug-25 2,884 2,896 2,865 2,869 2,878 2,878 0 9,616 13,865
Palm Oil
Turnover: 712,989 lots, or 53.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,650 7,742 7,650 7,662 7,624 7,704 80 96,786 81,963
Oct-24 7,576 7,664 7,568 7,582 7,552 7,628 76 9,008 11,712
Nov-24 7,546 7,646 7,546 7,562 7,544 7,606 62 3,106 5,523
Dec-24 7,526 7,614 7,520 7,532 7,508 7,564 56 151 431
Jan-25 7,470 7,578 7,468 7,484 7,468 7,528 60 580,875 423,961
Feb-25 7,434 7,524 7,430 7,488 7,432 7,494 62 64 395
Mar-25 7,408 7,476 7,380 7,436 7,396 7,436 40 95 3,286
Apr-25 7,362 7,432 7,356 7,392 7,358 7,400 42 25 276
May-25 7,316 7,414 7,312 7,322 7,334 7,368 34 22,864 79,062
Jun-25 7,352 7,362 7,342 7,342 7,296 7,350 54 7 86
Jul-25 7,332 7,332 7,316 7,316 7,264 7,322 58 6 45
Aug-25 7,292 7,292 7,288 7,288 7,274 7,290 16 2 3
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 529,271 lots, or 39.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,344 7,444 7,344 7,362 7,360 7,402 42 93,172 158,622
Nov-24 7,316 7,408 7,316 7,322 7,332 7,362 30 10,997 29,826
Dec-24 7,360 7,442 7,360 7,360 7,376 7,396 20 492 2,844
Jan-25 7,336 7,424 7,328 7,328 7,344 7,376 32 392,335 572,381
Mar-25 7,284 7,352 7,268 7,272 7,284 7,314 30 297 3,710
May-25 7,148 7,224 7,148 7,152 7,170 7,188 18 31,924 143,231
Jul-25 7,166 7,226 7,160 7,160 7,176 7,202 26 53 483
Aug-25 7,154 7,154 7,154 7,154 7,154 7,154 0 1 1
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322