Grains Report 08/15/2024

DJ Global Grain Output Estimates Trimmed on Lower Barley, Wheat Prospects — Update
By Joe Hoppe
The International Grains Council cut its forecast for global grain production on lower barley, wheat and sorghum crop expectations, mainly from the European Union.
The IGC now expects global grain output at 2.315 billion metric tons in 2024-25, down from July’s estimate of 2.321 billion tons. This remains a sharp rise from the prior year’s estimated harvest of 2.299 billion tons, and would be the highest on record.
Expectations for a record harvest have weighed on agricultural futures in recent months, with the price for Chicago wheat futures 14% lower on year at $5.38 a bushel. Corn is 15% lower on year at $4.00 a bushel, while soybean prices have fallen 25% to $9.70 a bushel.
Hedge funds and money managers are historically short on grains, and the robust Northern Hemisphere harvest appears baked into the prices, following the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, Citi analysts said.
That said, while corn, soybean and wheat futures have all entered bearish territory over the past year to 15 months, the bulk of the grains and oilseed market selloff has probably run its course, Citi analysts said in a note on Wednesday. The U.S. bank shifted its stance to neutral on the grains complex.
For corn, the IGC now expects output of 1.226 billion tons in 2024-25, slightly up from last month’s estimate of 1.225 billion tons, the grains body said.
Wheat output is expected at 799 million tons, down from 801 million tons in July, while rice is expected at 528 million tons, boosted by gains in Asia. Soybean output is expected to be a record 419 million tons, reflecting bumper crops in Argentina that more than offset falls in other key growers.
The forecast uses the latest acreage estimates and yield prospects.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 15
For the week ended Aug 8, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 339.9 -66.8 8928.1 6769.8 5011.8 45.2
hrw 33.0 0.0 2141.0 1277.4 1239.8 0.0
srw 83.0 0.0 1452.1 1687.1 810.4 0.0
hrs 190.6 -111.8 3072.6 2437.4 1804.6 0.2
white 13.5 45.0 2102.2 1247.9 1093.0 45.0
durum 19.9 0.0 160.2 120.1 64.0 0.0
corn 120.5 800.5 55816.5 40548.7 5072.6 6633.2
soybeans 221.7 1344.2 45938.2 53045.7 2879.0 5865.2
soymeal 113.7 140.1 13849.6 12664.8 2171.4 2118.6
soyoil 0.7 0.0 220.7 128.0 36.5 15.5
upland cotton 110.9 0.4 4212.6 5126.5 4059.8 333.9
pima cotton 22.4 0.0 75.3 48.5 65.1 0.0
sorghum 3.7 0.0 5851.3 2835.5 278.0 143.3
barley 0.0 0.0 20.1 16.1 18.3 0.0
rice 68.0 0.0 646.0 443.4 552.7 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed yesterday, with Chicago a little higher in recovery trading but KC and Minneapolis a little lower on selling seen in part on weaker overseas prices reported in Russia and Europe. US harvest progress and ideas of good crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 520, 514, and 508 September, with resistance at 557, 581, and 592 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 540, 534, and 528 September, with resistance at 567, 579, and 590 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 579, 574, and 568 September, and resistance is at 600, 613, and 629 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday and has exceeded the losses seen early in the week that came in response to the release of the USDA reports on Monday morning. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as a result as the harvest moves forward. However, planted area has increased from last year and so most are looking for a rebound in production this year. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1449, 1431, and 1415 September and resistance is at 1509, 1516, and 1532 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in recovery trading and Oats closed lower yesterday, with both crops showing very strong yield potential but Corn supported by USDA reducing harvested area and planted area and also increasing demand potential. The increased demand came from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 373, 370, and 367 September, and resistance is at 390, 402, and 409 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 316, 311, and 302 September, and resistance is at 336, 348, and 364 September

SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday in recovery trading after the market absorbed two days of selling tied to the USDA reports. Demand news was moderate for both Soybeans and Soybean Meal last week with big sales announced on the daily system. There was more beneficial precipitation in much of the Midwest over the last week. This week should be dry and temperatures should turn cooler amid dry weather this week. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 940 928, and 914 September, and resistance is at 1007, 1018, and 1033 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 311.00 and 293.00 September. Support is at 298.00, 295.00, and 292.00 September, and resistance is at 313.00, 316.00, and 323.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3970, 2910, and 3850 September, with resistance at 4130, 4190, and 4360 September.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on reports of weaker export demand. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was lower as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies, but growing conditions overall are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 560.00, 558.00, and 546.00 November, with resistance at 591.00, 607.00, and 617.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3620, 3560, and 3500 October, with resistance at 3770, 3830, and 3880 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July 61 July 137 Sep
49 Sep
95 Aug

August 76 Sep 137 Sep 49 Sep 95 Nov

Sep 82 Sep 145 Sep 48 Sep 90 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 930.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 915.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 882.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 880.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 875.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 935.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 920.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 887.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 885.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 880.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 942.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 842.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 3,920.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 326.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.433)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 104,066 lots, or 4.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,520 4,536 4,482 4,487 4,520 4,506 -14 46,333 49,281
Nov-24 4,382 4,388 4,349 4,356 4,396 4,370 -26 7,036 22,282
Jan-25 4,286 4,298 4,262 4,269 4,314 4,282 -32 46,607 112,261
Mar-25 4,269 4,269 4,236 4,238 4,281 4,251 -30 2,948 7,671
May-25 4,300 4,305 4,278 4,281 4,321 4,293 -28 957 4,160
Jul-25 4,280 4,285 4,260 4,261 4,297 4,274 -23 185 598
Corn
Turnover: 645,433 lots, or 14.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,284 2,304 2,280 2,300 2,287 2,292 5 244,750 302,432
Nov-24 2,248 2,278 2,245 2,277 2,254 2,265 11 258,607 508,872
Jan-25 2,234 2,260 2,231 2,256 2,238 2,249 11 106,259 422,294
Mar-25 2,232 2,255 2,226 2,249 2,234 2,244 10 19,482 99,039
May-25 2,277 2,296 2,271 2,290 2,275 2,286 11 6,781 23,885
Jul-25 2,279 2,302 2,278 2,296 2,281 2,291 10 9,554 12,153
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,663,564 lots, or 48.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,870 2,903 2,864 2,901 2,867 2,887 20 252,689 482,251
Nov-24 2,915 2,945 2,908 2,943 2,905 2,930 25 77,131 473,851
Dec-24 2,933 2,963 2,925 2,959 2,917 2,949 32 9,998 85,787
Jan-25 2,923 2,954 2,920 2,949 2,902 2,938 36 1,013,529 1,298,632
Mar-25 2,844 2,868 2,841 2,861 2,824 2,855 31 17,163 99,602
May-25 2,768 2,798 2,768 2,784 2,749 2,782 33 256,649 901,116
Jul-25 2,780 2,813 2,780 2,800 2,765 2,797 32 22,845 87,852
Aug-25 2,848 2,899 2,820 2,891 2,765 2,878 113 13,560 7,617
Palm Oil
Turnover: 806,868 lots, or 6.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,602 7,688 7,576 7,686 7,544 7,624 80 163,611 95,342
Oct-24 7,492 7,596 7,492 7,594 7,458 7,552 94 10,771 11,245
Nov-24 7,496 7,582 7,496 7,576 7,450 7,544 94 2,933 4,959
Dec-24 7,480 7,554 7,480 7,536 7,424 7,508 84 259 445
Jan-25 7,454 7,510 7,432 7,496 7,398 7,468 70 604,328 425,194
Feb-25 7,424 7,460 7,416 7,456 7,376 7,432 56 58 390
Mar-25 7,372 7,434 7,372 7,418 7,342 7,396 54 104 3,293
Apr-25 7,356 7,382 7,342 7,382 7,314 7,358 44 30 276
May-25 7,312 7,366 7,298 7,346 7,272 7,334 62 24,752 74,763
Jun-25 7,288 7,328 7,270 7,288 7,230 7,296 66 6 86
Jul-25 7,258 7,292 7,232 7,258 7,208 7,264 56 13 43
Aug-25 7,290 7,290 7,258 7,258 7,208 7,274 66 3 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 594,582 lots, or 43.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,320 7,394 7,308 7,384 7,276 7,360 84 163,615 178,921
Nov-24 7,296 7,360 7,292 7,348 7,254 7,332 78 11,696 29,054
Dec-24 7,336 7,404 7,336 7,386 7,308 7,376 68 551 2,874
Jan-25 7,314 7,378 7,314 7,364 7,286 7,344 58 388,984 561,992
Mar-25 7,248 7,308 7,248 7,298 7,218 7,284 66 135 3,653
May-25 7,140 7,196 7,140 7,176 7,100 7,170 70 29,558 136,517
Jul-25 7,152 7,200 7,148 7,188 7,128 7,176 48 38 474
Aug-25 7,140 7,180 7,136 7,136 7,128 7,154 26 5 1
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322