Softs Report 08/14/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower in response to weakness in Chicago grains and oilseeds and also Crude Oil futures in New York. It looks like futures are cheap enough for now but speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 66.40, 65.20, and 64.60 December, with resistance of 70.80, 73.00 and 73.70 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday on forecasts for more tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic. Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this week as the current tropical system should stay in the ocean. A very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 415.00, 410.00, and 393.00 September, with resistance at 454.00, 467.00, and 471.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower with offers from Vietnam still hard to find but offers from Brazil and Indonesia in the market. CECAFE in Brazil said that July exports were near 900,000 bags. Reports of better rains in Vietnam and Brazil recently were important but reports indicate that Brazil suffered some light frosts in southern areas away from Coffee regions. The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 228.07 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 230.00, 228.00, and 225.00 September, and resistance is at 252.00, 255.00 and 261.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4320, 4190, and 4070 September, with resistance at 4630, 4680, and 4740 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading. India will not permit exports of Sugar and the news supported futures last week. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are turning drier in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are improving. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. UNICA said that the center-south Brazil crush was 51.31 million tonsss, down 3.35% from last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 October and resistance is at 1890, 1910, and 1950 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 504.00, 498.00, and 492.00 October, with resistance at 533.00, 538.00, and 544.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher as tight supply conditions and reports of dry and hot weather in Ghana, but as prospects for the next crops are called good in Ivory Coast. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 8000, 7690, and 7340 September, with resistance at 9540, 9800, and 10310 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6290, 5880, and 5820 September, with resistance at 6880, 7080, and 7320 September.

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