AgMaster Report 08/14/2024

SEPT CORN

Despite a record yield estimate of 183.1 (177.0 – 2023), Sept Corn displayed positive mkt action after the August USDA Report issued Monday at 11am! The reason is that the acreage was reduced by 700,000 acres – bringing total 2024 acreage nearly 4MA under 2023! So the total crop came in at 15,147 BB – roughly the same as July & 200 million bushel under 2023! As well, 23-24 & 24-25 carryout came out under last month for both the US & Worldwide! With the recent drop in prices, US Corn is the cheapest anywhere & recent flash sales & Mon/Thur exports substantiate that! Finally, non-US production in the Black Sea & EU is below par! And farmer selling at these prices is nih! So not all DOOM & GLOOM! We feel 4-yr lows are enough!

 

SEPT BEANS

Unquestionably, the August WASDE Report was bearish – primarily due to the 1000 acreage increase– which at a record 53.2 BPA – translated to 4.583 BB crop! Also, both US & Global stocks increased over last month! However, the current $9.50 price discounts much of the report – and like corn, beans & bean oil are the cheapest in the world! Already this week, we’ve had 2 Flash Sales of beans! And China is rumored to be interested in much more! So, also much like corn, we think the current 4-year lows are probably cheap enough! In addition to improved export flow, the Macros are leaning positive as recent lower inflation #’s should enable the Fed to lower IR’s a few times before year end! And at the current depressed prices, farmers are sitting tight!

 

SEPT WHT

The Monday USDA Report came in a little friendly with total wht production & most US & Global carry-out #’s under July! However, the mkt this week has been disappointed in the large 3.8 mmt tender – only which a small portion has been satisfied! So, positive corn action & negative bean action has push & pulled wht prices in sideways action with little new fundamentals news available!

 

OCT HOGS

Oct Cat today were the beneficiary of still solid-demand from the grilling season, a macro boost from the DJI & lower slaughter from last week & last year! The DJI has been on a 1500 point rally off lower inflation #’s – which should allow the Fed to lower IR’s at least twice before year-end! A higher stock mkt implies better demand – and “a rising tide floats all boats”!

 

DEC HOGS

Dec Hogs have had technical issues – namely an open downside gap – left a week ago – which created downside pressure! As well, yesterdays action was very negative as the mkt took out a congestion area – plummeting to within $1.50 of the contract lows! But today the mkt key-reversed violently to the upside for a $2.50 gain – closing the gap in the process! Still solid pork demand thru Labor Day & a sharp rally in the DJI fueled the price surge!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337