Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
The only report today is Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-Year fixed mortgage fell 0.26%last week to 6.47, while the average on the 15-Year rate was down 0.40%. The 30-Year rate was the lowest since May 2023 and the 15-Year rate was the lowest since April 2023. Compared to a year ago, the 30-Yearrate was 0.49% lower and marked the 5th consecutive month of year-over-year declines. The Mortgage Bankers Association demand index has shown a recent uptick in mortgage applications, which last week were the highest since January. However, it’s the Refinance Index that has shown the strongest increase, and last week was the highest since July 2022. However, both the Application Index and Refinance Index are still barely above multi-decade lows.
Drought Eases KY/E Corn Belt; Expands in Southern Plains/MO: This week’s drought monitor featured an easing of dryness in OH, PA, & KY and a modest expansion of abnormal dryness in TX, OK, KS, NE, and MO. Soil moisture will be stabilized in CO/KS amid incoming rainfall this weekend and as mild temps blanket the Central US into the early part of next week. The two-week forecast is consistent with prior solutions and features noticeable net soil moisture loss in IA, the E Midwest and mid-South. Decently organized rainfall slides across CO, KS, and OK Fri-Saturday. Accumulations are projected in a range of .25-1.50”. W KS where rain is most needed – will be favored. The EU & GFS have also added rain to the SW Midwest Aug 16-17, but details late next week will hinge upon the path of an projected of an Atlantic hurricane. The US temp pattern is favorable into next week as high temps remain capped in the upper 70’s/low 80’s, but extended range forecasts are steadfast in projecting a warmer trend beyond Aug 14-15th . Highs in the Plains Aug 15-18 reach back into the mid/upper 90’s. The May/June/July period was the 5th warmest for the Central US on record.
CBOT Corn Sheds Modest US Supply Premium; Yield Hike Needed in Aug Report to Be Bearish of Dec Below $3.95: Dec CBOT corn fell to last week’s low on as rain was added to Southern IL/IN at midday and as the trade preps for a sizable hike in US corn yield in Monday’s August WASDE. Commercial yield estimates are centered at 180-182, vs. USDA’s current 181, but Ag Resources (ARC) suspects private ideas are much higher. ARC does expect old crop carryover to be trimmed 35-50 Mil Bu and for new crop average to be lowered 1 Mil. A yield of 185 lifts 24/25 end stocks to 2.2 Bil Bu. A yield of 181 lowers 24/25 end stocks to 1.8 Bil. ARC’s message is that US stocks building will be muted even assuming incredible US corn yields. A longer-term corn bottom should be formed by late month. The degree of recovery will depend on supply perception, but amid soaring cash bids in Ukraine and lofty Brazilian premiums, this year’s large US crop will be absorbed. Old crop export sales in the week ending Aug 1st were 18 Mil Bu. Just 4 Mil/week must be sold into Aug 31 to meet the USDA’s annual target. Record larger US corn exports are forecast in 2024/25 on crop short falls in S America/Black Sea.
Save Our Economy + Starts With Farming & Energies. The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/09/2024
The only report today is Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-Year fixed mortgage fell 0.26%last week to 6.47, while the average on the 15-Year rate was down 0.40%. The 30-Year rate was the lowest since May 2023 and the 15-Year rate was the lowest since April 2023. Compared to a year ago, the 30-Yearrate was 0.49% lower and marked the 5th consecutive month of year-over-year declines. The Mortgage Bankers Association demand index has shown a recent uptick in mortgage applications, which last week were the highest since January. However, it’s the Refinance Index that has shown the strongest increase, and last week was the highest since July 2022. However, both the Application Index and Refinance Index are still barely above multi-decade lows.
Drought Eases KY/E Corn Belt; Expands in Southern Plains/MO: This week’s drought monitor featured an easing of dryness in OH, PA, & KY and a modest expansion of abnormal dryness in TX, OK, KS, NE, and MO. Soil moisture will be stabilized in CO/KS amid incoming rainfall this weekend and as mild temps blanket the Central US into the early part of next week. The two-week forecast is consistent with prior solutions and features noticeable net soil moisture loss in IA, the E Midwest and mid-South. Decently organized rainfall slides across CO, KS, and OK Fri-Saturday. Accumulations are projected in a range of .25-1.50”. W KS where rain is most needed – will be favored. The EU & GFS have also added rain to the SW Midwest Aug 16-17, but details late next week will hinge upon the path of an projected of an Atlantic hurricane. The US temp pattern is favorable into next week as high temps remain capped in the upper 70’s/low 80’s, but extended range forecasts are steadfast in projecting a warmer trend beyond Aug 14-15th . Highs in the Plains Aug 15-18 reach back into the mid/upper 90’s. The May/June/July period was the 5th warmest for the Central US on record.
CBOT Corn Sheds Modest US Supply Premium; Yield Hike Needed in Aug Report to Be Bearish of Dec Below $3.95: Dec CBOT corn fell to last week’s low on as rain was added to Southern IL/IN at midday and as the trade preps for a sizable hike in US corn yield in Monday’s August WASDE. Commercial yield estimates are centered at 180-182, vs. USDA’s current 181, but Ag Resources (ARC) suspects private ideas are much higher. ARC does expect old crop carryover to be trimmed 35-50 Mil Bu and for new crop average to be lowered 1 Mil. A yield of 185 lifts 24/25 end stocks to 2.2 Bil Bu. A yield of 181 lowers 24/25 end stocks to 1.8 Bil. ARC’s message is that US stocks building will be muted even assuming incredible US corn yields. A longer-term corn bottom should be formed by late month. The degree of recovery will depend on supply perception, but amid soaring cash bids in Ukraine and lofty Brazilian premiums, this year’s large US crop will be absorbed. Old crop export sales in the week ending Aug 1st were 18 Mil Bu. Just 4 Mil/week must be sold into Aug 31 to meet the USDA’s annual target. Record larger US corn exports are forecast in 2024/25 on crop short falls in S America/Black Sea.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn