Grains Report 08/08/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 8
For the week ended Aug 1, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for corn, soybeans and sorghum begins Sep 1. The
marketing year for soymeal and soyoil begins Oct 1.
For rice and cotton, “this year” is the 2024-2025 marketing
year, which began Aug 1, while “last year” is 2023-2024.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 274.0 112.0 8588.2 6410.2 5174.0 112.0
hrw 78.3 0.0 2108.0 1192.0 1335.7 0.0
srw 71.5 0.0 1369.1 1630.4 819.6 0.0
hrs 42.9 112.0 2882.0 2217.9 1790.2 112.0
white 78.4 0.0 2088.7 1278.3 1144.6 0.0
durum 2.9 0.0 140.3 91.7 83.9 0.0
corn 485.4 249.1 55696.0 40315.3 5984.8 5832.7
soybeans 325.4 985.2 45783.8 53094.2 3088.0 4521.0
soymeal 102.3 256.5 13735.9 12538.4 2230.9 1978.5
soyoil 10.9 -8.2 219.9 127.3 38.1 15.5
upland cotton 30.3-a 11.5 4101.7 4940.2 4080.1 333.6
pima cotton 36.8-b 0.0 53.0 45.3 51.3 0.0
sorghum 54.5 93.0 5847.6 2794.4 333.0 143.3
barley 0.8 0.0 20.1 16.1 18.3 0.0
rice 234.2-c 0.0 578.1 418.7 556.3 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Aug 1 which resulted
in a net decrease of -949.6 thousand metric tons. Also includes
979.9 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2023-2024.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Aug 1 which
resulted in a net increase of 7.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes
29.1 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2023-2024.
-c: Includes new sales activity for Aug 1 which
resulted in a net increase of 19.3 thousand metric tons. Also includes
214.9 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2023-2024.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets yesterday on some new speculative and commercial selling. The weekly export sales report is out and as there has been some positive demand news amid production problems in Russia and Europe. US harvest progress and ideas of good yields and crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 520, 514, and 508 September, with resistance at 557, 581, and 592 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 545, 540, and 534 September, with resistance at 590, 601, and 618 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 583, 574, and 5568 September, and resistance is at 628, 636, and 646 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday as the market seems to be consolidating before the USDA reports on Monday. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too dry, especially in Texas. However, planted area has increased from last year and so most are looking for a rebound in production this year. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1478, 1452, and 1431 September and resistance is at 1538, 1544, and 1566 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday with selling seen in Wheat and Soybeans and on ideas of good growing conditions in the Midwest and talk of very strong yield potential. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week but hot weather could return next week. Northern areas such as southern Minnesota have had way too much rain but the weather is better now. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas but demand remains solid overall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 379, 376, and 373 September, and resistance is at 414, 426, and 446 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 317, 311, and 302 September, and resistance is at 335, 348, and 364 September

SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower and Soybean Oil closed higher. Demand news was moderate for both Soybeans and Soybean Meal last week with big sales announced on the daily system. There was more beneficial precipitation in much of the Midwest over the last week. This week should be dry and temperatures should turn cooler amid dry weather this week. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1992, 980, and 968 September, and resistance is at 1018, 1033, and 1047 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 311.00 and 293.00 September. Support is at 320.00, 316.00, and 313.00 September, and resistance is at 330.00, 336.00, and 339.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4130, 4030, and 3970 September, with resistance at 4260, 4350, and 4510 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday with ideas of expanding world oilseeds production and weakness in outside markets. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was higher as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies, but growing conditions overall are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 585.00, 572.00, and 560.00 November, with resistance at 605.00, 617.00, and 627.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3680, 3620, and 3560 October, with resistance at 3770, 3830, and 3880 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July 61 July 137 Sep
49 Sep
95 Aug

August 76 Sep 137 Sep 49 Sep 95 Nov

Sep 82 Sep 145 Sep 48 Sep 90 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 910.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 890.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 867.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 867.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 865.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 912.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 892.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 870.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 867.20 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 922.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 832.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 3,860.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 314.00 -06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.472)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 77,167 lots, or 3.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,572 4,593 4,569 4,585 4,583 4,584 1 51,666 79,301
Nov-24 4,459 4,485 4,456 4,480 4,460 4,471 11 2,923 21,786
Jan-25 4,400 4,424 4,395 4,420 4,400 4,408 8 21,951 60,901
Mar-25 4,373 4,394 4,368 4,390 4,373 4,379 6 408 5,284
May-25 4,416 4,434 4,410 4,430 4,416 4,421 5 190 3,234
Jul-25 4,390 4,411 4,390 4,411 4,398 4,398 0 29 251
Corn
Turnover: 708,223 lots, or 16.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,274 2,301 2,270 2,300 2,263 2,284 21 410,472 524,468
Nov-24 2,277 2,300 2,274 2,300 2,265 2,287 22 144,042 443,369
Jan-25 2,260 2,286 2,260 2,284 2,254 2,273 19 116,480 403,337
Mar-25 2,273 2,284 2,264 2,283 2,258 2,273 15 18,637 94,736
May-25 2,310 2,324 2,302 2,321 2,304 2,315 11 8,198 17,725
Jul-25 2,315 2,330 2,311 2,328 2,306 2,320 14 10,394 9,246
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,705,725 lots, or 51.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 2,950 2,957 2,950 2,957 3,036 2,953 -83 2 20,056
Sep-24 2,981 3,012 2,972 2,992 2,997 2,990 -7 894,169 922,297
Nov-24 3,020 3,055 3,020 3,037 3,040 3,035 -5 119,529 491,559
Dec-24 3,063 3,094 3,062 3,072 3,097 3,075 -22 11,833 80,109
Jan-25 3,061 3,088 3,052 3,068 3,086 3,068 -18 521,862 1,107,436
Mar-25 2,956 2,991 2,955 2,977 2,988 2,971 -17 11,134 94,711
May-25 2,900 2,908 2,883 2,893 2,916 2,895 -21 133,747 773,496
Jul-25 2,904 2,919 2,896 2,905 2,930 2,905 -25 13,449 65,293
Palm Oil
Turnover: 984,303 lots, or 74.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 – – – 7,784 7,784 7,784 0 0 1,032
Sep-24 7,620 7,676 7,584 7,596 7,584 7,618 34 644,856 231,578
Oct-24 7,570 7,614 7,520 7,522 7,526 7,560 34 9,751 6,580
Nov-24 7,552 7,596 7,500 7,500 7,506 7,546 40 2,556 3,284
Dec-24 7,468 7,572 7,468 7,478 7,468 7,524 56 437 434
Jan-25 7,472 7,538 7,434 7,436 7,422 7,480 58 313,760 338,607
Feb-25 7,398 7,502 7,398 7,434 7,388 7,456 68 31 406
Mar-25 7,440 7,488 7,414 7,422 7,380 7,440 60 115 3,251
Apr-25 7,386 7,434 7,380 7,386 7,346 7,406 60 24 257
May-25 7,348 7,402 7,320 7,320 7,304 7,358 54 12,746 58,443
Jun-25 7,330 7,364 7,300 7,300 7,280 7,326 46 11 86
Jul-25 7,322 7,338 7,282 7,282 7,260 7,304 44 16 44
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 682,363 lots, or 5.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 – – – 7,260 7,260 7,260 0 0 3,251
Sep-24 7,444 7,540 7,442 7,458 7,400 7,480 80 400,251 346,124
Nov-24 7,462 7,534 7,454 7,458 7,410 7,484 74 7,523 24,880
Dec-24 7,540 7,594 7,514 7,514 7,480 7,550 70 736 2,292
Jan-25 7,528 7,570 7,482 7,484 7,454 7,520 66 253,156 439,155
Mar-25 7,404 7,452 7,384 7,408 7,360 7,404 44 156 3,429
May-25 7,294 7,346 7,276 7,278 7,248 7,302 54 20,438 122,253
Jul-25 7,262 7,336 7,262 7,274 7,242 7,298 56 103 264
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322