AgMaster Report 08/06/2024

SEPT CORN

Chaotic financial mkts tested the corn mkt yesterday with the DJI closing 1000 points lower off very sluggish unemployment #’s on Friday but – the mkt was able to shrug off the spill-over pressure – impressively closing higher! Bullish divergence, indeed! The mkt appears to have dialed in 182-183 BPA yields! As well, with US prices underneath both Brazil & Argentina, exports have been running 30% over 2023! The USDA will update their estimates next Monday 8-12-24 at 11am CST! It appears 4-yr lows were enough as the mkt seems to be in the process of carving out early-harvest-lows! Gd-Ex crop ratings dropped 1% to 67%! Silking is 88% (88), Dough is 46% (38), Dented 7% (5). Last Thur export sales 878mmt (1.070), Mon Inspections – 1.213mmt (1.070) – plus 3 flash sales 104,000, 200,000 -unk, 133,000- Mex

 

SEPT BEANS

Much like Sept Corn, Sept Beans were pressured down yesterday off the DJI melt-down but were able to recover late with a higher close! However, the crop ratings came out overnite with a 1% increase in the GD-Ex ratings which today pushed the mkt back down today! But there have been many rumblings that China is in the mkt for 6-10 cargoes of US Beans! And understandably so as US Beans are the cheapest around! Yield estimates are running 51-52bpa but August is when beans are made so the jury is still out on the final yield! The mkt is hovering just off 2020 lows & the current price has already dialed in a near-record yield!

Beans Gd-Ex went up 1% (67-68), blooming 86% (84) & setting pods 59% (56) Mon Inspections – 261mmt (488) & Thur Export Sales 1.03mmt (918)! There were 3 flash sales 202,000 & 132,000mmt to China & 264,000mmt to unknown!

 

 

SEPT WHT

The financial meltdown which attacked the markets on Monday was an excellent litmus test for the already-cheap Sept wht & it passed with flying colors – being unable to make new lows & actually closing higher!  Export sales are running 15% over 2023 & much like corn & beans, 4 year lows may be enough for wht as well!

Winter Wheat harvest is 88% in (86) – Spring Wht is 6% in (10) – headed- 97% (99)!

 

OCT CAT

Oct Cat topped out with a vengeance – falling $10 in no time! The plummet was certainly expedited by the DJI free-fall Monday – heightening fears that a possible upcoming recession would seriously hurt demand! As well, the wide disparity between pork & beef in the Supermarket encouraged a big demand shift to the former!

 

OCT HOGS

The recent $10 free-fall in Oct Cat & 1000 DJI drop was resisted by the Oct Hogs – as they held steady & thereby re-established themselves as the new upside leader in the meats! The glaring price disparity of pork-to-beef in the grocery store enhanced pork’s demand & lower slaughter & better exports also aided the turn-around!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337