About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in all three markets last week on fund short covering and some new speculative and commercial buying and as there has been some positive demand news amid production problems in Russia and Europe. The weekly export sales report was good. US harvest progress and ideas of good yields and crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 526, 520, and 514 September, with resistance at 557, 581, and 592 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 546, 540, and 534 September, with resistance at 590, 601, and 618 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 600, 586, and 574 September, and resistance is at 628, 636, and 646 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 511,573
: Positions :
: 60,845 150,374 146,263 119,977 102,739 150,137 74,186 477,222 473,562: 34,350 38,011
: Changes from: July 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: 551) :
: 1,921 4,423 -9,249 9,020 4,587 474 3,447 2,167 3,208: -1,616 -2,657
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.9 29.4 28.6 23.5 20.1 29.3 14.5 93.3 92.6: 6.7 7.4
: Total Traders: 413 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 121 127 119 112 46 32 328 325:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 266,937
: Positions :
: 31,117 67,830 57,675 68,873 82,334 92,258 35,448 249,923 243,288: 17,014 23,649
: Changes from: July 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: 8,816) :
: 3,153 983 4,471 2,125 570 -1,050 757 8,699 6,781: 117 2,036
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.7 25.4 21.6 25.8 30.8 34.6 13.3 93.6 91.1: 6.4 8.9
: Total Traders: 248 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 58 67 75 73 37 23 200 191:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 80,009 :
: Positions :
: 44,477 22,786 3,951 0 319 7,991 32,923 6,766 1,813 998 3,123 :
: Changes from: July 23, 2024 :
: -354 634 199 0 181 -724 -1,650 181 -230 127 -135 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 55.6 28.5 4.9 0.0 0.4 10.0 41.1 8.5 2.3 1.2 3.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 114 :
: 53 37 8 0 4 11 22 9 8 7 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week after making a new high for the move on Thursday. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too dry, especially in Texas. However, planted area has increased from last year and so most are looking for a rebound in production this year. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1478, 1452, and 1431 September and resistance is at 1506, 1518, and 1530 September

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,358 :
: Positions :
: 5,347 5,174 0 114 0 863 2,686 48 1,372 71 1,066 :
: Changes from: July 23, 2024 :
: -532 259 0 -128 0 -118 -501 48 76 -285 -104 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.6 49.9 0.0 1.1 0.0 8.3 25.9 0.5 13.2 0.7 10.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61 :
: 19 15 0 . 0 7 9 . 14 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher last week on ideas of good growing conditions in the Midwest and talk of very strong yield potential. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week but hot weather could return next week. Northern areas such as southern Minnesota have had way too much rain but the weather is better now. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas but demand remains solid overall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 388, 385, and 382 September, and resistance is at 414, 426, and 446 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 317, 311, and 302 September, and resistance is at 335, 348, and 364 September

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,024,400
: Positions :
: 140,593 412,545 643,415 612,856 542,966 438,164 198,889 1,835,028 1,797,814: 189,373 226,586
: Changes from: July 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -82,346) :
: -3,520 -27,360 -49,907 -4,239 3,317 -18,584 -14,391 -76,251 -88,341: -6,095 5,995
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.9 20.4 31.8 30.3 26.8 21.6 9.8 90.6 88.8: 9.4 11.2
: Total Traders: 806 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 149 167 206 361 332 54 36 676 649:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,300 :
: Positions :
: 2,277 1,328 171 464 9 0 1,509 0 616 387 165 :
: Changes from: July 23, 2024 :
: 42 -85 14 14 -2 0 -111 0 -7 27 -26 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 43.0 25.1 3.2 8.8 0.2 0.0 28.5 0.0 11.6 7.3 3.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 26 :
: 8 6 . . . 0 6 0 4 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower last week and Soybean Meal was higher. Demand news was strong for both Soybeans and Soybean Meal last week with big sales announced on the daily system. The weekly export sales report showed new sales to China and this was positive as well. There was more beneficial precipitation in much of the Midwest over the last week. This week should be dry and temperatures should turn cooler amid dry weather this week. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1012, 1000, and 988 August, and resistance is at 1059, 1077, and 1089 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 355.00, 347.00, and 337.00 August, and resistance is at 365.00, 372.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 4120, 4060, and 4000 August, with resistance at 4270, 4350, and 4510 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,022,005
: Positions :
: 45,062 219,405 315,217 425,975 320,447 184,755 98,527 971,010 953,596: 50,996 68,409
: Changes from: July 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -73,364) :
: -13,846 1,413 -39,365 -8,546 -38,515 -8,744 3,950 -70,501 -72,517: -2,863 -847
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.4 21.5 30.8 41.7 31.4 18.1 9.6 95.0 93.3: 5.0 6.7
: Total Traders: 548 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 105 155 181 184 191 48 27 449 459:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 608,064
: Positions :
: 66,397 134,541 142,679 223,906 267,964 142,939 36,783 575,922 581,967: 32,142 26,097
: Changes from: July 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -26,150) :
: 3,362 25,794 -21,765 443 -37,101 -7,860 4,616 -25,820 -28,455: -330 2,305
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 22.1 23.5 36.8 44.1 23.5 6.0 94.7 95.7: 5.3 4.3
: Total Traders: 356 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 94 103 107 87 43 24 296 249:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 565,024
: Positions :
: 78,407 70,347 142,420 158,775 286,083 136,795 34,758 516,397 533,608: 48,627 31,416
: Changes from: July 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -30,340) :
: 3,147 -12,702 -20,414 -7,098 7,443 -1,567 -2,803 -25,932 -28,476: -4,408 -1,864
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.9 12.5 25.2 28.1 50.6 24.2 6.2 91.4 94.4: 8.6 5.6
: Total Traders: 341 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 69 78 96 112 103 41 26 276 267:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week with ideas of expanding world oilseeds production. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was lower last week as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies, but growing conditions overall are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 605.00, 599.00, and 592.00 November, with resistance at 617.00, 627.00, and 647.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3820, 3790, and 3770 October, with resistance at 4040, 4100, and 4140 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 45,544 :
: Positions :
: 34,994 14,605 880 16,283 370 600 3,645 0 760 2,671 7,910 :
: Changes from: July 23, 2024 :
: 1,228 225 0 998 20 0 60 0 145 80 120 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 76.8 32.1 1.9 35.8 0.8 1.3 8.0 0.0 1.7 5.9 17.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 31 :
: 9 12 . 4 . . . 0 . 6 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 286,921 :
: Positions :
: 222,215 115,600 3,270 15,997 411 10,233 106,221 20,575 17,403 13,751 11,289 :
: Changes from: July 23, 2024 :
: -2,552 -1,191 407 562 141 -4,986 -11,126 8,895 -923 3,477 948 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 77.4 40.3 1.1 5.6 0.1 3.6 37.0 7.2 6.1 4.8 3.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 344 :
: 65 73 5 7 . 17 82 28 49 80 50 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry early, scattered showers late. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July 61 July 137 Sep
49 Sep
95 Aug

August 76 Sep 137 Sep 49 Sep 95 Nov

Sep 82 Sep 145 Sep 48 Sep 90 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian pworts
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 937.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 922.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 895.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 887.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 882.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 940.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 925.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 897.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 890.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 885.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 955.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 860.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4000.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 346.00 -06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.424)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 131,944 lots, or 6.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,617 4,628 4,582 4,590 4,606 4,606 0 104,612 100,831
Nov-24 4,484 4,495 4,457 4,462 4,486 4,477 -9 5,035 23,139
Jan-25 4,443 4,452 4,410 4,413 4,446 4,430 -16 21,317 55,303
Mar-25 4,415 4,424 4,386 4,388 4,418 4,405 -13 641 5,239
May-25 4,434 4,447 4,420 4,420 4,439 4,433 -6 252 3,241
Jul-25 4,428 4,428 4,401 4,401 4,428 4,410 -18 87 210
Corn
Turnover: 828,723 lots, or 19.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,324 2,326 2,274 2,281 2,320 2,300 -20 486,923 662,863
Nov-24 2,305 2,306 2,269 2,275 2,307 2,287 -20 172,607 419,478
Jan-25 2,286 2,288 2,257 2,263 2,285 2,270 -15 125,215 401,527
Mar-25 2,289 2,290 2,261 2,267 2,285 2,275 -10 28,423 94,218
May-25 2,335 2,335 2,305 2,310 2,331 2,319 -12 4,534 17,044
Jul-25 2,339 2,342 2,313 2,318 2,338 2,327 -11 11,021 8,269
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,712,383 lots, or 52.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 3,049 3,059 3,049 3,059 3,048 3,049 1 179 20,200
Sep-24 3,084 3,098 3,047 3,055 3,065 3,075 10 919,749 1,146,284
Nov-24 3,128 3,139 3,091 3,100 3,108 3,119 11 79,567 482,421
Dec-24 3,161 3,177 3,135 3,142 3,143 3,161 18 10,474 68,518
Jan-25 3,161 3,170 3,127 3,135 3,134 3,151 17 507,526 980,719
Mar-25 3,028 3,041 3,005 3,011 3,009 3,024 15 14,840 91,191
May-25 2,958 2,962 2,932 2,938 2,942 2,948 6 164,704 754,926
Jul-25 2,959 2,971 2,944 2,949 2,951 2,960 9 15,344 53,759
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,371,369 lots, or 10.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 – – – 7,784 7,784 7,784 0 3 1,032
Sep-24 7,932 7,948 7,770 7,856 7,874 7,860 -14 1,074,302 302,483
Oct-24 7,836 7,846 7,704 7,764 7,776 7,766 -10 7,948 5,560
Nov-24 7,804 7,814 7,678 7,730 7,756 7,738 -18 2,449 2,155
Dec-24 7,792 7,792 7,658 7,704 7,728 7,718 -10 97 446
Jan-25 7,760 7,774 7,636 7,670 7,714 7,700 -14 271,211 281,687
Feb-25 7,736 7,736 7,644 7,660 7,686 7,696 10 36 293
Mar-25 7,694 7,702 7,588 7,614 7,646 7,646 0 140 3,203
Apr-25 7,658 7,658 7,570 7,570 7,596 7,598 2 24 250
May-25 7,618 7,636 7,510 7,530 7,590 7,560 -30 15,108 55,174
Jun-25 7,558 7,558 7,506 7,508 7,522 7,520 -2 31 83
Jul-25 7,556 7,556 7,470 7,486 7,498 7,494 -4 20 31
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 664,249 lots, or 50.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 – – – 7,260 7,518 7,260 -258 0 3,251
Sep-24 7,630 7,650 7,530 7,578 7,608 7,592 -16 430,352 417,610
Nov-24 7,656 7,656 7,542 7,588 7,628 7,604 -24 6,449 25,481
Dec-24 7,718 7,726 7,618 7,660 7,698 7,680 -18 870 1,939
Jan-25 7,678 7,696 7,584 7,634 7,668 7,646 -22 204,538 392,657
Mar-25 7,584 7,598 7,500 7,536 7,582 7,554 -28 193 3,448
May-25 7,460 7,478 7,372 7,422 7,466 7,432 -34 21,790 116,311
Jul-25 7,462 7,466 7,386 7,416 7,432 7,434 2 57 195
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322