AgMaster Report 08/02/2024

SEPT CORN

The GD/EX crop rating increased by 1% to 68% & the weather forecast changed to less hot & more wet – driving corn down to its lows! An expected yield last reported at 181 BPA – may be raised by the USDA in their upcoming 8/11/24 Report! Today, mitigating macro factors are the likelihood the Fed will soon drop interest rates, a corresponding decline in the US Dollar & sharply higher crude oil! The mkt is already on 3 ½ year lows – which is attracting an increasing export flow – reflected in daily flash sales & the weekly Mon & Thurs #’s! We think the mkt has already dialed in record yields & will look to carve out lows before the August Crop Report!

 

SEPT BEANS

Hot & dry morphed into cool & wet – driving the entire grain complex down to its 2020 lows – including soybeans as they enter their critical pod-filling stage in August! However, the low prices have been accompanied by excellent export demand – as evidenced by today’s EXPORT SALES which topped 1MMT for the 1^st time in forever! As well, 5 flash sales in the past 8 mkt days have featured both beans & corn! The upcoming August WASDE Report on Mon 8-12-24 is rumored to be lowering total acres by 1 million in both beans & corn! Our 4-year low prices are the lowest globally – & should rejuvenate our exports! Finally, on the macro side, the Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates in Sept! We feel mkt lows are very close!

 

SEPT WHT

Harsh weather in Western Europe & the Black Sea Area coupled with international tension between Israel & Iran underpinned Wht Futures this week as the mkt bounced off of 4-yr lows! A lot have bearish fundamentals are in & it feels like LOW PRICES HAVE FINALLY CURED LOW PRICES for wht, corn & beans! As the US is the best deal around, we look for the entire grain complex to carve out lows right around the issuance of the AUGUST CROP REPORT at mid-month!- motivated by much-better exports across the board!

 

OCT CAT

A violent down in Oct Cat today in excess of $3.-  – has to be tied the collapse in the DJI – now over 700 points in the red! The Oct Cat looks to have topped out as the disparity between pork & beef in your local grocery store became extreme & demand is now very partial to pork! As well, daily slaughter has been running over last year!

 

OCT HOGS

Today’s disparity between Oct Cattle -300 points & Oct Hogs +100 points might be decisive proof that cattle has topped out & hogs are ready to take over upside leadership! The glaring gap in prices at the retail level has finally translated into much better demand for pork – allowing it to hold $1.00 higher while a 700 point lower DJI pulled cattle over $3.00 lower!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337