Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM & YoY, House Price Index, and House Price Index MoM & YoY at 8:00 A.M., JOLT’s Job Openings, CB Consumer Confidence, and JOLT’s Job Quits at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Services Index and Dallas Fed Services Revenues at 9:30 A.M., 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M., and Day 1 of the FOMC Meeting.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that for the week ending July 23, funds sold nearly 22,000 contracts in the gold market. It was the largest week of fund selling since early February. However, this followed 2 weeks of buying and funds are still net long over 198,000 contracts of gold. This was the 2nd largest weekly net short position since April. Commercials bought close to 6,900 contracts during the week, which was the largest week of commercial buying since July 2023. The commercial short position at mid-July had been the most since late March, but from a historical perspective, it remains small. With rising interest rates and the collapse in US dollar purchasing power , the market has yet to reach prices that have encouraged significant commercial selling. In South East Wisconsin, soybeans look healthy, some bright spots in corn, however, we are at a critical juncture for yields the crop can produce. Ag Resources (ARC) US Forecast Extends Warmth into Aug 8th; Extended Range Uncertain as Tropical Activity Ramps up. The Central US forecast through the first full week of August is broadly consistent with prior runs. The outlook ias non-threatening across the mid-South and eastern Midwest as ridge-riding systems provide .50-2.00” of rain to MN, eastern IA, IL, IN, and OH over the next 5 days. Rapid net soil loss occurs elsewhere. TX, OK, KS, and NE will be targeted with max temps in a range of 98-105 degre4es Wed-Friday. The Plains and SW Midwest hold in a arid trend throughout the next 10 days. AG Resources (ARC) maintains a tropical system/hurricane is needed to dislodge the current North American upper air pattern. Note than an increase of tropical activity is probable from mid-August onward, but details in the extended range will be murky until the storms actually form. The EU model’s 1-5 & 6-10 day temp anomaly forecasts with to be the feature for the Central US CBOT Corn Recovers; US Crop Rating Rises Unexpectedly: CBOT corn ended slightly higher and well off session lows as end user buying/strong export demands begins to battle against record US yield potential. The US crop on Sunday was rated at 68% good-to-excellent, vs. 63% on average, which Ag Resources (ARC) expects will keep the trades yield ideas at 182-184 BPA. However, the key is how the market reacts today. World cash markets are firm. Ukrainian is offered at $1.20-$1.30/Bu over Chicago for Aug-Sep delivery. This is a highly unusual Ukraine corn basis and reflects the exhausting of old crop supply amid a deepening drought. Export data continues to suggest there’s been a shift in summer consumption fr5om South America & Black Sea to the US market. US export inspections in the week ending July 25th totaled 42 Mil Bu, vs. 21 Mil in late July a year ago. Given Consensus export data’s 220 Mil. FGIS numbers, ARC pegs -Sep-July Us corn exports at 2.093 Mil Bu, up 34% year-over-year. Barring a collapse in August, USDA’s 23/24 US corn export forecast is 25-50 Mil Bu too low. I am onboard with ARC that US yield potential is the only bearish fundamental at 4.00 Dec CBOT. Heat in the Plains is a growing concern along with producer reports of growing foliar corn disease pressures. If the global export market continues to struggle, can the US fill the market void? Remember the funds are banking otherwise.
Exports-Weather-Yields & Whispers. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/30/2024
We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM & YoY, House Price Index, and House Price Index MoM & YoY at 8:00 A.M., JOLT’s Job Openings, CB Consumer Confidence, and JOLT’s Job Quits at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Services Index and Dallas Fed Services Revenues at 9:30 A.M., 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M., and Day 1 of the FOMC Meeting.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that for the week ending July 23, funds sold nearly 22,000 contracts in the gold market. It was the largest week of fund selling since early February. However, this followed 2 weeks of buying and funds are still net long over 198,000 contracts of gold. This was the 2nd largest weekly net short position since April. Commercials bought close to 6,900 contracts during the week, which was the largest week of commercial buying since July 2023. The commercial short position at mid-July had been the most since late March, but from a historical perspective, it remains small. With rising interest rates and the collapse in US dollar purchasing power , the market has yet to reach prices that have encouraged significant commercial selling. In South East Wisconsin, soybeans look healthy, some bright spots in corn, however, we are at a critical juncture for yields the crop can produce. Ag Resources (ARC) US Forecast Extends Warmth into Aug 8th; Extended Range Uncertain as Tropical Activity Ramps up. The Central US forecast through the first full week of August is broadly consistent with prior runs. The outlook ias non-threatening across the mid-South and eastern Midwest as ridge-riding systems provide .50-2.00” of rain to MN, eastern IA, IL, IN, and OH over the next 5 days. Rapid net soil loss occurs elsewhere. TX, OK, KS, and NE will be targeted with max temps in a range of 98-105 degre4es Wed-Friday. The Plains and SW Midwest hold in a arid trend throughout the next 10 days. AG Resources (ARC) maintains a tropical system/hurricane is needed to dislodge the current North American upper air pattern. Note than an increase of tropical activity is probable from mid-August onward, but details in the extended range will be murky until the storms actually form. The EU model’s 1-5 & 6-10 day temp anomaly forecasts with to be the feature for the Central US CBOT Corn Recovers; US Crop Rating Rises Unexpectedly: CBOT corn ended slightly higher and well off session lows as end user buying/strong export demands begins to battle against record US yield potential. The US crop on Sunday was rated at 68% good-to-excellent, vs. 63% on average, which Ag Resources (ARC) expects will keep the trades yield ideas at 182-184 BPA. However, the key is how the market reacts today. World cash markets are firm. Ukrainian is offered at $1.20-$1.30/Bu over Chicago for Aug-Sep delivery. This is a highly unusual Ukraine corn basis and reflects the exhausting of old crop supply amid a deepening drought. Export data continues to suggest there’s been a shift in summer consumption fr5om South America & Black Sea to the US market. US export inspections in the week ending July 25th totaled 42 Mil Bu, vs. 21 Mil in late July a year ago. Given Consensus export data’s 220 Mil. FGIS numbers, ARC pegs -Sep-July Us corn exports at 2.093 Mil Bu, up 34% year-over-year. Barring a collapse in August, USDA’s 23/24 US corn export forecast is 25-50 Mil Bu too low. I am onboard with ARC that US yield potential is the only bearish fundamental at 4.00 Dec CBOT. Heat in the Plains is a growing concern along with producer reports of growing foliar corn disease pressures. If the global export market continues to struggle, can the US fill the market void? Remember the funds are banking otherwise.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn