Phil Flynn
Phil Flynn is writer of The Energy Report, a daily market commentary discussing oil, the Middle East, American government, economics, and their effects on the world's energies markets, as well as other commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (888) 264-5665
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Saving Copper. Manic Metals Report 07/26/2024
The rebound in copper could signal that the sell-off in all metals could be nearing an end. Copper bounced after China’s central bank on Thursday unexpectedly cut its one-year lending facility rate by 0.2% to 2.30%, days after reducing another key short-term rate singling that China was prepared to do more to stimulate the economy. Silver still felt the weight of the tech wreck and the potential of a rotation away from investment in silver demand hungry tech projects. Traders are watching silvers 200 day moving average of 26.425.
Gold though rallied on geopolitical worries and uncertainty about the outlook for the US political election. Remember that the World Gold Council did report that global physically backed gold exchange-traded funds recorded their second consecutive month of inflows in June. Platinum Palladium and aluminum sagged. Palladium is down 64% since the 2022 highs.
Gold the traditional inflation hedge will really focus on today’s PCE price data. Right now, fairly convinced we are going to see an interest rate cut in September. This data today might confirm that, and that might even suggest the possibility the Fed could move even sooner.
Barrons reported that Inflation data coming Friday should give the Federal Reserve another key piece of the evidence it needs to cut interest rates in September.
The central bank’s preferred gauge of prices—the personal-consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index—is expected to confirm that inflation continues to close in on the central bank’s 2% annual target. The June PCE price index will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, as part of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ personal income and outlays report.
Economists’ consensus forecast calls for a 0.1% rise in the PCE price index in June, according to FactSet, following virtually no change in May and monthly gains of 0.3% in February, March, and April. The year-over-year increase in the PCE price index is projected to have slowed to 2.4% in June, from 2.6% in May. That would be its smallest annual increase since 2021.
The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy components, is forecast to have risen by slightly less than 0.2% in June. That would put its annual climb at 2.5%—marking the Fed’s progress in taming inflation since 2022, when the annual rise in the PCE price index peaked above 7%. In May, the core index rose 0.1% and was up 2.6% from a year earlier.
Any favor gold on the long side on breaks silver is going to be very interesting today if the tech market stabilizes, we should see a nice rebound in silver look to buy December calls for silver.
Many times, we talk about the United states being the cleanest producer of energy in the world but that also makes us the cleanest producer of other things like aluminum.
The Wall Street Journal wrote that aluminum products made in China are nearly 2.5 times as carbon intensive as similar products made in the U.S. and Canada.
Charles Johnson CEO, Aluminum Association wrote that Private investments in advanced aluminum manufacturing require public power sources that are more abundant, affordable and sustainable.
Demand for domestic aluminum is projected to jump 80% by 2050 due to its environmental advantages. That’s the same time frame in which international net-zero goals call for a 92% reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions. Meeting such targets will require an all-of-society approach and tens of billions of dollars in investment.
The North American aluminum industry is doing its part: Aluminum produced in the U.S. and Canada is half as carbon intensive as aluminum produced elsewhere, while aluminum products made in China are nearly 2.5 times as carbon intensive as similar products made in North America.
Our industry, like all others, can’t decarbonize fully until we can access a more modern, secure and affordable power grid fueled by more diverse energy sources. Policy makers must upgrade the grid and accelerate adoption of low-carbon production technologies. Anything less will increase emissions, harm U.S. industries and jobs and weaken supply-chain resilience.
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Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report and Manic Metals Report
Contributor to FOX Business Network
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