Softs Report 07/25/2024

NO COMMENTS THIS FRIDAY OR MONDAY

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower again yesterday on better crop condition ratings from USDA released on Monday afternoon. It looks like futures are cheap enough for now but speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions. USDA showed a decrease in production conditions for the crops in its reports yesterday that were the result of some extreme weather seen recently in Texas and the Southeast. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.50, 66.40, and 65.20 December, with resistance of 73.70, 74.40 and 76.80 December.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 25
For the week ended Jul 18, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year began Jun 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton -74.2 285.9 12945.3 13958.8 2742.9 2715.6
pima cotton -0.1 4.9 351.9 336.4 36.4 11.7

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday as the hurricane watch continued but nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts. Traders also continued to react to the USDA production reports released on Friday that showed slight increases in production in Florida and California. A very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 420.00, 410.00, and 403.00 September, with resistance at 443.00, 454.00, and 478.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower yesterday. Reports of better rains in Vietnam and Brazil recently were important. There are still reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market. Offers from Vietnam are reported to be down significantly and the current crop in Brazil along with the next crop in Vietnam s reported to be smaller. The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season. A little rain has been reported in Vietnam and in Brazil recently to help crops in both countries. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 232.98 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 228.00, 222.00, and 21w6.00 September, and resistance is at 247.00, 250.00 and 258.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4300, 4220, and 4080 July, with resistance at 4680, 4730, and 4800 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday as harvest progress in Brazil was the important fundamental and as growing conditions improved in Brazil. Even so, one analyst group this week reduced Brazil production by 300,000 tons to 41.3 million tons. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere to offset the potential Brazil losses. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are improving. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 October and resistance is at 1880, 1910, and 1950 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 513.00, 510.00, and 504.00 October, with resistance at 538.00, 555.00, and 562.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday as tight supply conditions and reports of good demand are still around. Weather reports indicate it is raining in Ivory Coast and Ghana right now. The current rains can help production of the next crop but have also created disease concerns about the pods. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. The North American and European grinds were stronger in data released last week, but the Asian grind was down a little. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted. Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast are now 27.2% less than a year ago. Demand has been strong for Cocoa and Chocolate.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7600, 7520, and 6960 September, with resistance at 8670, 8960, and 9540 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6250, 5920, and 5360 September, with resistance at 7100, 7420, and 7950 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322