Grains Report 07/16/2024

WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Jul 15, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 11, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/11/2024 07/04/2024 07/13/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 898 149 0 3,965 0
CORN 1,078,911 1,023,905 419,214 44,592,041 33,956,086
FLAXSEED 0 24 0 144 0
MIXED 0 0 0 572 0
OATS 0 0 499 100 1,897
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 70,614 58,841 139,333 5,329,198 2,062,282
SOYBEANS 168,593 294,209 160,844 42,016,293 49,894,059
SUNFLOWER 0 96 432 7,325 3,520
WHEAT 533,828 343,359 273,443 2,266,366 1,794,274
Total 1,852,844 1,720,583 993,765 94,216,004 87,712,118
————————————————————————
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

This Week Last Qeek Last Year Average
Cotton Squaring 64 52 61 63
Cotton Setting Bolls 27 19 23 22
Corn Silking 41 24 40 32
Corn Dough 8 3 6 4
Soybeans Blooming 51 34 51 44
Soybeans Setting Pods 18 9 17 12
Sorghum Headed 29 23 28 28
Sorghum Coloring 16 13 16 16
Rice Headed 44 31 34 27
Peanuts Pegging 70 58 65 68
Oats Headed 91 83 91 90
Oats Harvested 16 11 12
Winter Wheat Harvested 71 63 53 62
Spring Wheat Headed 76 59 82 78
Barley Headed 76 56 72 76

Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 11 12 32 37 8
Cotton Last Week 10 13 32 37 8
Cotton Last Year 12 16 27 38 7

Corn This Week 3 6 23 52 16
Corn Last Week 3 6 23 52 16
Corn Last Year 4 9 30 46 11

Soybeans This Week 2 6 24 56 12
Soybeans Last Week 2 6 24 55 13
Soybeans Last Year 4 8 32 47 8

Spring Wheat This Week 0 3 20 67 10
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 3 21 65 10
Spring Wheat Last Year 3 11 35 48 3

Sorghum This Week 3 8 32 44 13
Sorghum Last Week 3 7 31 46 13
Sorghum Last Year 3 7 32 47 11

Rice This Week 0 2 18 63 17
Rice Last Week 1 2 16 64 17
Rice Last Year 1 4 22 57 16

Peanuts This Week 1 6 33 54 6
Peanuts Last Week 1 7 34 52 6
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 28 62 6

Oats This Week 6 5 23 56 ten
Oats Last Week 6 5 22 56 11
Oats Last Year 7 9 40 41 3

Barley This Week 0 3 23 69 5
Barley Last Week 0 3 27 64 6
Barley Last Year 2 9 37 45 7

Pastures and Ranges This Week 12 17 30 34 7
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 9 16 31 36 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 9 15 29 37 10

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets yesterday with follow through selling seen due to increased Winter Wheat production estimates from USDA. The production data helped push ending stocks estimates above trade expectations. The failed assassination attempt on Mr Trump created ideas that his election was much more likely, and this helped boost the stock markets but hurt agricultural goods as Trump is likely to greatly increase tariffs to cut income taxes. That hurt demand ideas for US agricultural goods. US harvest progress and ideas of good yields and crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 525 and 489 September. Support is at 526, 520, and 514 September, with resistance at 557, 581, and 592 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 535 and 507 September. Support is at 546, 540, and 534 September, with resistance at 564, 590, and 601 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 575 and 541 September. Support is at 578, 572, and 566 September, and resistance is at 598, 603, and 61-0 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher in the new crop months as the market showed the potential to recover from recent losses. The situation calls for a short term short covering rally after prices got beat up lower over the previous few weeks. Hurricane Beryl has brought beneficial rains to Arkansas and other parts of the Delta. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis Trends are mixed. Support is at 1451, 1441, and 1428 September and resistance is at 1498, 1611, and 1518 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and near recent lows yesterday and Oats closed lower. Hurricane Beryl brought beneficial precipitation to the southern and eastern Midwest. Current forecasts call for hotter and drier weather for the Midwest this week. Weakness was based on hopes for improved crop condition ratings that were released on Monday afternoon. The US weather features moderate temperatures and increasing chances for rains. Northern areas such as southern Minnesota that have had way too much rain and flooding is still reported. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. The failed assassination attempt on Mr Trump created ideas that his election was much more likely, and this helped boost the stock markets but hurt agricultural goods as Trump is likely to greatly increase tariffs to cut income taxes. That hurt demand ideas for US agricultural goods.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 388, 385, and 382 September, and resistance is at 403, 412, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 301, 296, and 290 September, and resistance is at 324, 327, and 331 September

SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday as the weather improved and demand did not. There was more beneficial precipitation in much of the Midwest over the weekend. The NOPA crush report showed less than expected demand at 177 million bushels for June. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. The failed assassination attempt on Mr Trump created ideas that his election was much more likely, and this helped boost the stock markets but hurt agricultural goods as Trump is likely to greatly increase tariffs to cut income taxes. That hurt demand ideas for US agricultural goods. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but has cut back and increased purchases from the US on demand due to the tax issues in Brazil and on Brazil logistical concerns. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the biofuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1068, 1056, and 1044 August, and resistance is at 1102, 1130, and 1151 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 318.00 August. Support is at 331.00, 329.00, and 326.00 August, and resistance is at 339.00, 344.00, and 351.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4660 and 4890 August. Support is at 4510, 4440, and 4390 August, with resistance at 5030, 5090, and 6050 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on apparent short covering and new speculative buying even with ideas of increasing supplies. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was lower yesterday as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The daily charts show that Canola trends are down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 605.00, 599.00, and 591.00 November, with resistance at 615.00, 632.00, and 638.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3830, 3790, and 3770 October, with resistance at 3910, 3960, and 2890 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast Showers and storms mostly south and east. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 58 July 110 July
60 July
69 July

July 69 July 115 July 60 July 70 July

August 62 Sep 120 Sep 35 Sep 82 Aug

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 902.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 902.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 895.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 880.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 905.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 905.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 897.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 877.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 882.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 902.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 847.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 4,040.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 336.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.676)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 117,576 lots, or 5.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,533 4,562 4,515 4,517 4,568 4,542 -26 98,652 108,946
Nov-24 4,498 4,503 4,462 4,464 4,512 4,481 -31 5,544 18,837
Jan-25 4,445 4,451 4,420 4,422 4,464 4,437 -27 12,181 40,863
Mar-25 4,417 4,422 4,397 4,397 4,440 4,407 -33 902 3,286
May-25 4,450 4,450 4,417 4,417 4,471 4,433 -38 275 2,728
Jul-25 4,390 4,430 4,390 4,422 4,437 4,422 -15 22 20
Corn
Turnover: 627,147 lots, or 14.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,384 2,388 2,366 2,381 2,396 2,379 -17 419,353 781,438
Nov-24 2,323 2,328 2,300 2,317 2,330 2,314 -16 85,720 314,258
Jan-25 2,306 2,316 2,290 2,307 2,322 2,302 -20 83,455 270,709
Mar-25 2,315 2,315 2,293 2,306 2,321 2,305 -16 24,562 64,318
May-25 2,358 2,358 2,338 2,351 2,366 2,348 -18 2,516 7,957
Jul-25 2,361 2,365 2,345 2,361 2,369 2,355 -14 11,541 3,586
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,720,851 lots, or 5.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 3,075 3,094 3,047 3,057 3,106 3,071 -35 9,069 52,994
Sep-24 3,090 3,119 3,071 3,084 3,122 3,093 -29 1,191,815 1,545,176
Nov-24 3,135 3,158 3,109 3,120 3,155 3,133 -22 54,218 450,589
Dec-24 3,185 3,206 3,162 3,169 3,217 3,181 -36 7,921 49,418
Jan-25 3,174 3,199 3,152 3,166 3,194 3,174 -20 290,767 778,700
Mar-25 3,016 3,044 3,004 3,012 3,038 3,023 -15 11,331 55,942
May-25 2,962 2,979 2,929 2,939 2,974 2,951 -23 149,479 573,712
Jul-25 2,977 2,992 2,943 2,954 2,989 2,970 -19 6,251 7,946
Palm Oil
Turnover: 818,792 lots, or 63.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 7,722 7,884 7,692 7,840 7,736 7,792 56 649 1,686
Sep-24 7,702 7,862 7,666 7,820 7,708 7,766 58 708,271 383,639
Oct-24 7,652 7,798 7,614 7,750 7,668 7,708 40 1,866 3,118
Nov-24 7,602 7,764 7,590 7,712 7,646 7,676 30 310 473
Dec-24 7,582 7,738 7,568 7,686 7,622 7,632 10 156 290
Jan-25 7,560 7,722 7,518 7,668 7,594 7,628 34 92,511 232,741
Feb-25 7,544 7,690 7,540 7,652 7,590 7,632 42 39 309
Mar-25 7,556 7,680 7,550 7,642 7,586 7,624 38 55 2,550
Apr-25 7,518 7,676 7,516 7,622 7,556 7,610 54 19 185
May-25 7,540 7,658 7,500 7,626 7,572 7,608 36 14,884 39,345
Jun-25 7,500 7,626 7,500 7,586 7,518 7,582 64 31 173
Jul-25 7,602 7,602 7,602 7,602 7,616 7,602 -14 1 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 464,486 lots, or 35.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 7,534 7,608 7,488 7,574 7,572 7,560 -12 3,345 13,701
Sep-24 7,570 7,652 7,534 7,612 7,608 7,594 -14 363,392 591,292
Nov-24 7,570 7,654 7,538 7,616 7,610 7,602 -8 3,770 17,321
Dec-24 7,654 7,726 7,628 7,710 7,700 7,688 -12 117 1,624
Jan-25 7,640 7,742 7,614 7,692 7,684 7,682 -2 78,003 287,795
Mar-25 7,576 7,616 7,524 7,580 7,582 7,574 -8 238 3,423
May-25 7,474 7,536 7,450 7,510 7,506 7,494 -12 15,619 85,966
Jul-25 7,484 7,484 7,484 7,484 7,466 7,484 18 2 4
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322