Softs Report 07/15/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher last week in range trading as Hurricane Beryl is part of the past and as the USDA WASDE reports released on Friday produced no bearish surprises. USDA increased production estimates by one million bales and left the demand side untouched for an increase in US ending stocks levels. World ending stocks levels were reduced slightly as world growing conditions are more suspect. The demand as reflected in the weekly USDA export sales report was poor. USDA showed a decrease in production conditions for the crops in its reports last week that were the result of some extreme weather seen recently in Texas and the Southeast. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and Chinese demand for Cotton has started to increase.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 132 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 70.00, 68.80, and 67.60 December, with resistance of 72.30, 73.70 and 74.40 December.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Jun Jul
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 13.75 10.23 10.67* 11.67**
Harvested 7.29 6.44 9.13* 9.67**
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 953 899 842* 844**
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.05 4.25 2.85 3.05
Production 14.47 12.07 16.00 17.00
Imports 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 18.52 16.32 18.86 20.06
Domestic Use 2.05 1.85 1.90 1.90
Exports, Total 12.77 11.60 13.00 13.00
Use, Total 14.82 13.45 14.90 14.90
Unaccounted 2/ -0.55 -0.18 -0.15 -0.15
Ending Stocks 4.25 3.05 4.10 5.30
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 84.8 76.0 70.0 68.0
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WASDE – 650 – 18 July 2024

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2024/25 Proj.
World
Jun 80.97 119.14 44.95 116.94 44.95 -0.32 83.49
Jul 79.31 120.19 44.59 117.19 44.59 -0.32 82.63
World Less China
Jun 39.97 92.14 32.95 77.94 44.88 -0.32 42.56
Jul 38.31 92.69 33.09 78.19 44.52 -0.32 41.70
United States
Jun 2.85 16.00 0.01 1.90 13.00 -0.15 4.10
Jul 3.05 17.00 0.01 1.90 13.00 -0.15 5.30
Total Foreign
Jun 78.12 103.14 44.95 115.04 31.95 -0.18 79.39
Jul 76.26 103.19 44.59 115.29 31.59 -0.18 77.33
Major Exporters 4/
Jun 26.68 59.83 2.22 34.42 27.77 -0.18 26.72
Jul 25.81 59.88 2.20 34.71 27.41 -0.18 25.95
Major Importers 8/
Jun 48.06 39.82 40.01 76.57 2.39 0.00 48.94
Jul 48.03 39.82 39.71 76.27 2.39 0.00 48.90
================================================================================
WASDE – 650 – 28 July 2024

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 09, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 244,039
: Positions :
: 28,268 73,390 54,825 64,227 86,652 84,504 14,610 231,825 229,476: 12,214 14,563
: Changes from: July 2, 2024 (Change in open interest: 5,648) :
: 1,256 7,634 1,160 4,558 -4,278 -2,055 614 4,919 5,130: 729 518
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 30.1 22.5 26.3 35.5 34.6 6.0 95.0 94.0: 5.0 6.0
: Total Traders: 305 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 106 82 56 53 47 23 228 218:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher last week as the hurricane watch continued. Traders also reacted to the USDA production reports released on Friday tat showed slight increases in production in Florida and California. Hurricane Beryl missed Florida and there are no other storms in sight for the state for now, but a very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 147 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 433.00, 421.00, and 410.00 September, with resistance at 478.00, 484.00, and 490.00 September.

The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is
2.76 million tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 8 percent
from the 2022-2023 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at
18.0 million boxes (808,000 tons), is up 1 percent from the previous forecast
and up 14 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, early,
midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 6.76 million boxes
(304,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 10 percent from
last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at
11.2 million boxes (504,000 tons), is up 1 percent from the previous forecast
and up 16 percent from last season’s final utilization.

The California all orange forecast is 47.5 million boxes (1.90 million tons),
up 3 percent from previous forecast and up 6 percent from last season’s final
utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 39.0 million boxes
(1.56 million tons), up 3 percent from the previous forecast and up 8 percent
from last season’s final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast
is 8.50 million boxes (340,000 tons), up 6 percent from the previous forecast
but down 1 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Texas all orange
forecast, at 1.18 million boxes (50,000 tons), is up 7 percent from the
previous forecast and up 4 percent from last season’s final utilization.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 9, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,755 :
: Positions :
: 1,645 7,813 898 0 133 2,906 513 66 1,451 503 2,850 :
: Changes from: July 2, 2024 :
: -380 -142 34 0 30 176 35 -24 -320 38 129 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.9 61.3 7.0 0.0 1.0 22.8 4.0 0.5 11.4 3.9 22.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58 :
: 7 8 5 0 . 18 4 . 14 7 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on more reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market. Offers from Vietnam are reported to be down significantly and the current crop in Brazil along with the next crop in Vietnam s reported to be smaller These markets are up sharply one day and down sharply the next, but the rally days are bigger than the loss days. The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season. A little rain has been reported in Vietnam recently to help crops there. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 248.36 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 21 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 682 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 241.00, 239.00, and 232.00 September, and resistance is at 258.00, 264.00 and 270.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4390, 4300, and 4220 July, with resistance at 4680, 4730, and 4790 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 09, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 273,533
: Positions :
: 63,892 12,990 79,096 57,899 161,206 63,587 14,381 264,474 267,674: 9,059 5,860
: Changes from: July 2, 2024 (Change in open interest: 22,241) :
: 4,410 -1,671 10,312 5,256 11,895 1,484 1,289 21,461 21,825: 780 417
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.4 4.7 28.9 21.2 58.9 23.2 5.3 96.7 97.9: 3.3 2.1
: Total Traders: 409 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 150 62 107 101 130 51 22 340 288:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week as harvest progress in Brazil was the important fundamental but as world supplies remain rather tight. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are improving, and UNICA said that Sugar production was up more than 20% from last year at 3.25 million tons. The market had expected this increase. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1920, 1880, and 1860 October and resistance is at 2050, 2070, and 2090 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 538.00, 530.00, and 526.00 October, with resistance at 560.00, 572.00, and 581.00 October.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Jun Jul
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1820 1843 1724 1986
Production 2/ 9250 9220 9200 9325
Beet Sugar 5187 5179 5111 5236
Cane Sugar 4063 4041 4089 4089
Florida 1985 2065 2004 2004
Louisiana 2001 1936 2085 2085
Texas 76 40 0 0
Imports 3614 3619 3076 2939
TRQ 3/ 1862 1798 1415 1647
Other Program 4/ 141 288 200 200
Non-program 1611 1533 1460 1092
Mexico 1156 504 1197 790
High-tier tariff/other 455 1029 263 302
Total Supply 14685 14682 14000 14250
Exports 82 241 100 100
Deliveries 12589 12455 12455 12455
Food 12473 12350 12350 12350
Other 5/ 116 105 105 105
Miscellaneous 171 0 0 0
Total Use 12843 12696 12555 12555
Ending Stocks 1843 1986 1445 1695
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 15.6 11.5 13.5
================================================================================

Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight

Sugar
2023/24 Est.
Jun 835 4718 596 4618 399 1132
Jul 835 4708 747 4630 432 1228
2024/25 Proj.
Jun 1132 5189 343 4661 1024 978
Jul 1228 5094 25 4661 708 978
================================================================================
WASDE – 650 – 17 July 2024

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 09, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 920,207
: Positions :
: 78,665 85,220 199,581 347,159 523,785 220,761 50,674 846,166 859,260: 74,041 60,947
: Changes from: July 2, 2024 (Change in open interest: -8,509) :
: -6,214 -6,201 -4,328 7,297 6,333 -4,606 -6,008 -7,850 -10,203: -659 1,694
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 9.3 21.7 37.7 56.9 24.0 5.5 92.0 93.4: 8.0 6.6
: Total Traders: 230 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 47 75 68 67 38 21 203 178:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed little changed last week. The European Cocoa grind was 357,502 tons, up 4.1% from last year. The data was supportive to prices. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 399 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,970 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 7880, 7520, and 6960 September, with resistance at 8670, 8960, and 9540 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 6520, 6250, and 5920 September, with resistance at 7420, 7940, and 8300 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 09, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 230,014
: Positions :
: 24,023 13,746 101,456 60,464 94,344 31,904 14,874 217,847 224,420: 12,167 5,594
: Changes from: July 2, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,188) :
: 1,975 394 1,837 -1,672 204 308 225 2,448 2,661: 739 526
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.4 6.0 44.1 26.3 41.0 13.9 6.5 94.7 97.6: 5.3 2.4
: Total Traders: 173 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 50 45 74 36 33 31 19 159 136:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322