Grains Report 07/12/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 15, 2024 126 Jul 11, 2024
CORN July Jul 15, 2024 63 Jul 05, 2024
SOYBEAN July Jul 15, 2024 137 Jul 02, 2024
WHEAT July Jul 15, 2024 28 Jul 11, 2024

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. 2024 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA June USDA 2023
Corn Production 15,060 14,857-15,232 14,860 15,342
Soybean Production 4,416 4,335-4,436 4,450 4,165
Corn Yield 180.7 179.5-181.0 181.0 177.3
Soybean Yield 51.9 51.0-52.0 52.0 50.6
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2023-24
Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,041 1,917-2,126 2,022
Soybeans 353 329-377 350
Wheat 698 680-708 688
2024-25
Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,272 2,124-2,498 2,102
Soybeans 445 350-507 455
Wheat 793 750-863 758
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA June
Corn 312.0 308.5-314.3 312.4
Soybeans 110.9 109.1-112.5 111.1
Wheat 259.9 259.0-260.4 259.6
2024-25
Average Range USDA June
Corn 312.0 309.7-315.0 310.8
Soybeans 127.1 125.5-128.1 127.9
Wheat 252.6 250.0-256.0 252.3
****
2024-25 Wheat Production
Average Range USDA June USDA 2023-24
All Wheat 1,913 1,865-1,999 1,875 1,812
Winter Wheat 1,317 1,280-1,363 1,295 1,248
Hard Red Winter 745 716-793 726 601
Soft Red Winter 344 328-355 342 449
White Winter 227 220-240 226 198
Other Spring 525 505-553 N/A 505
Durum 71 50-85 N/A 59
****
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA June
Corn 121.3 120.0-122.0 122.0
Soybeans 152.1 149.0-153.0 153.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 51.4 48.0-53.0 53.0
Soybeans 50.0 49.5-50.0 50.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in all three markets yesterday in preparation for the USDA WASDE reports to be released later today. US harvest progress and ideas of good yields and crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. Russia is likely to expand the war and has reportedly started to make some threats against the US and NATO countries. The US harvest is expanding through Kansas and is now more than 50% complete for the country as a whole and adverse world growing conditions are still around. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 550, 544, and 538 September, with resistance at 581, 592, and 600 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 552, 546, and 540 September, with resistance at 590, 601, and 615 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 602, 596, and 590 September, and resistance is at 628, 636, and 646 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher as the market prepared for the WASDE reports from USDA later today. Hurricane Beryl has passed by but hit growing areas with the damaging parts of the storm in and around the Houston area. The system has brought beneficial rains to Arkansas and other part of the Delta. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year and now a hurricane that dropped big amounts of rain on cops again along with some high winds. Inland Texas areas could also see too much rain. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1451, 1441, and 1428 September and resistance is at 1498, 1611, and 1518 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mostly a little higher and Oats closed higher as the market prepared for the release of the WASDE reports from USDA today. Hurricane Beryl brought beneficial precipitation to the southern and eastern Midwest. Current forecasts call for hotter and drier weather for the Midwest later this week. Weakness was based on hopes for improved crop condition ratings to be released on Monday afternoon. The US weather features moderate temperatures and increasing chances for rains. Northern areas such as southern Minnesota that have had way too much rain and flooding is still reported.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 391, 388, and 385 September, and resistance is at 403, 412, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 296, 290, and 284 September, and resistance is at 322, 327, and 331 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed mostly a little higher yesterday as the market prepared for the USDA WASDE reports to be released later today. Hurricane Beryl brought beneficial precipitation to areas of the southern and eastern Midwest where conditions have been too dry until now. Northern and western areas should turn drier which is also beneficial for crops. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but has cut back and increased purchases from the US on demand due to the tax issues in Brazil and on Brazil logistical concerns. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the biofuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1117 and 1094 August. Support is at 1104, 1092, and 1080 August, and resistance is at 1130, 1151, and 1170 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 334.00 and 318.00 August. Support is at 337.00, 334.00, and 331.00 August, and resistance is at 344.00, 351.00, and 359.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4660 and 4890 August. Support is at 4510, 4440, and 4390 August, with resistance at 5030, 5090, and 6050 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday on demand. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was higher yesterday along with US prices. The daily charts show that Canola trends are down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 636.00 and 625.00 November. Support is at 615.00, 599.00, and 591.00 November, with resistance at 648.00, 664.00, and 670.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3770 and 3630 September. Support is at 3850, 3830, and 3780 September, with resistance at 4000, 4050, and 4090 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast Showers and storms mostly south and east. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 58 July 110 July
60 July
69 July

July 69 July 115 July 60 July 70 July

August 62 Sep 120 Sep 35 Sep 82 Aug

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 900.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 895.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 887.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 882.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 902.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 897.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 890.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 872.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 885.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 897.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 842.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 4,030.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 331.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.667)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 105,714 lots, or 4.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 4,655 4,635 4,655 20 0 0
Sep-24 4,628 4,637 4,605 4,613 4,622 4,620 -2 85,694 112,427
Nov-24 4,527 4,549 4,521 4,537 4,522 4,537 15 5,993 18,852
Jan-25 4,490 4,507 4,481 4,487 4,487 4,491 4 12,512 38,846
Mar-25 4,460 4,481 4,454 4,458 4,461 4,467 6 977 2,932
May-25 4,478 4,507 4,472 4,494 4,483 4,493 10 538 2,691
Corn
Turnover: 555,287 lots, or 13.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 2,454 2,445 2,454 9 0 0
Sep-24 2,413 2,424 2,402 2,404 2,418 2,415 -3 411,470 784,573
Nov-24 2,332 2,345 2,329 2,330 2,334 2,337 3 74,853 300,428
Jan-25 2,322 2,338 2,322 2,323 2,326 2,330 4 56,599 246,762
Mar-25 2,327 2,340 2,324 2,326 2,330 2,332 2 11,314 56,091
May-25 2,364 2,385 2,364 2,369 2,374 2,377 3 1,051 6,610
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,451,195 lots, or 4.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 3,182 3,082 3,182 100 0 0
Aug-24 3,180 3,183 3,142 3,143 3,197 3,166 -31 11,395 55,089
Sep-24 3,201 3,206 3,164 3,166 3,213 3,188 -25 1,056,263 1,568,910
Nov-24 3,230 3,236 3,196 3,200 3,243 3,222 -21 44,678 439,255
Dec-24 3,280 3,288 3,248 3,250 3,292 3,271 -21 6,249 48,942
Jan-25 3,278 3,280 3,233 3,235 3,279 3,259 -20 206,263 748,038
Mar-25 3,091 3,099 3,062 3,062 3,100 3,085 -15 18,765 56,082
May-25 3,026 3,028 2,990 2,990 3,024 3,012 -12 107,582 521,755
Palm Oil
Turnover: 935,885 lots, or 72.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 7,834 7,834 7,834 0 0 0
Aug-24 7,688 7,868 7,680 7,790 7,674 7,762 88 740 1,835
Sep-24 7,690 7,844 7,654 7,766 7,654 7,754 100 806,496 397,909
Oct-24 7,636 7,806 7,636 7,734 7,636 7,732 96 1,788 2,492
Nov-24 7,640 7,778 7,626 7,708 7,622 7,702 80 220 448
Dec-24 7,616 7,752 7,600 7,696 7,602 7,694 92 151 314
Jan-25 7,600 7,730 7,570 7,652 7,584 7,660 76 113,792 233,467
Feb-25 7,584 7,700 7,566 7,646 7,544 7,640 96 45 309
Mar-25 7,580 7,708 7,568 7,652 7,580 7,594 14 142 2,358
Apr-25 7,572 7,690 7,568 7,672 7,580 7,626 46 22 208
May-25 7,576 7,700 7,520 7,632 7,586 7,650 64 12,467 35,572
Jun-25 7,568 7,660 7,568 7,620 7,568 7,620 52 22 169
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 544,173 lots, or 41.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 7,624 7,580 7,624 44 6 0
Aug-24 7,552 7,658 7,548 7,590 7,544 7,598 54 2,169 15,855
Sep-24 7,620 7,710 7,594 7,638 7,598 7,652 54 440,646 609,768
Nov-24 7,604 7,706 7,596 7,638 7,596 7,656 60 4,527 15,398
Dec-24 7,704 7,792 7,694 7,726 7,698 7,738 40 37 1,671
Jan-25 7,702 7,796 7,686 7,722 7,692 7,742 50 83,183 278,512
Mar-25 7,600 7,670 7,598 7,626 7,588 7,630 42 242 3,275
May-25 7,534 7,610 7,530 7,562 7,524 7,568 44 13,363 76,304
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322