Softs Report 07/11/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday as Hurricane Beryl is part of the past and as traders look ahead to the USDA WASDE reports due on Friday. USDA showed a decrease in production conditions for the crops in its reports this week that were the result of some extreme weather seen recently in Texas and the Southeast. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and Chinese demand for Cotton has started to increase.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 132 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 70.00, 68.80, and 67.60 December, with resistance of 72.30, 73.70 and 74.40 December.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 11
For the week ended Jul 4, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 54.1 69.5 12992.3 13910.5 3034.3 2264.2
pima cotton 3.9 0.0 348.3 331.3 39.3 4.7

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again and at new highs for the move as the hurricane watch continued. Hurricane Beryl missed Florida and there are no other storms in sight for the state for now, but a very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: ICE said that 3 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 147 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 433.00, 421.00, and 410.00 September, with resistance at 478.00, 484.00, and 490.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower in correction trading and despite more reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market. These markets are up sharply one day and down sharply the next, but the rally days are bigger than the loss days. The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season. A little rain has been reported in Vietnam recently to help crops there. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 244.92 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 661 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 243.00, 239.00, and 232.00 September, and resistance is at 252.00, 258.00 and 264.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4390, 4300, and 4220 July, with resistance at 4670, 4730, and 4790 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher in correction trading as harvest progress in Brazil was the important fundamental but as world supplies remain rather tight. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are improving. Trends are mixed to up on the daily and weekly charts. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2070 and 2170 October. Support is at 1920, 1880, and 1860 October and resistance is at 2050, 2070, and 2090 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 575.00 and 600.00 October. Support is at 538.00, 530.00, and 526.00 October, with resistance at 560.00, 572.00, and 581.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London both closed a little lower in consolidation trading but chart trends are still down. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,571 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 7520, 6960, and 6420 September, with resistance at 8320, 8630, and 8960 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6250, 5920, and 5710 September, with resistance at 6820, 7420, and 7940 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322