Grains Report 07/11/2024

DJ Brazilian Conab Raises Corn Production on Completed Harvest
By Kirk Maltais
Brazilian crop agency Conab has increased its outlook for the country’s corn crop from the previous month, while its soybean crop outlook moved slightly lower.
Conab said in a monthly report Tuesday that it now expects corn production in Brazil to total 115.9 million metric tons, which is up from 1.7% from the previous month. Soybean production is seen at 147.3 million tons, practically flat compared with the previous month. Conab adds that harvests in Brazil are completed for 2023/24.
Both crops are down from this time last year–with corn down 16% from the previous marketing year, and soybeans down 7%. “The drop observed in relation to the previous cycle, according to the survey, is mainly due to the intensity of the El Niño phenomenon, which in this harvest had a negative influence on climate behavior from the beginning of planting,” said the agency.
The Conab report comes ahead of the USDA’s world supply and demand estimates report, which is due out Friday at noon eastern time. In its previous WASDE report released in June, the USDA forecast Brazilian corn production at 122 million metric tons, and soybeans at 153 million tons.
Grains trading on the Chicago Board of Trade are higher pre-market, with most-active corn up 1.1% and soybeans up 0.7%.

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. 2024 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA June USDA 2023
Corn Production 15,060 14,857-15,232 14,860 15,342
Soybean Production 4,416 4,335-4,436 4,450 4,165
Corn Yield 180.7 179.5-181.0 181.0 177.3
Soybean Yield 51.9 51.0-52.0 52.0 50.6
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2023-24
Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,041 1,917-2,126 2,022
Soybeans 353 329-377 350
Wheat 698 680-708 688
2024-25
Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,272 2,124-2,498 2,102
Soybeans 445 350-507 455
Wheat 793 750-863 758
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA June
Corn 312.0 308.5-314.3 312.4
Soybeans 110.9 109.1-112.5 111.1
Wheat 259.9 259.0-260.4 259.6
2024-25
Average Range USDA June
Corn 312.0 309.7-315.0 310.8
Soybeans 127.1 125.5-128.1 127.9
Wheat 252.6 250.0-256.0 252.3
****
2024-25 Wheat Production
Average Range USDA June USDA 2023-24
All Wheat 1,913 1,865-1,999 1,875 1,812
Winter Wheat 1,317 1,280-1,363 1,295 1,248
Hard Red Winter 745 716-793 726 601
Soft Red Winter 344 328-355 342 449
White Winter 227 220-240 226 198
Other Spring 525 505-553 N/A 505
Durum 71 50-85 N/A 59
****
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA June
Corn 121.3 120.0-122.0 122.0
Soybeans 152.1 149.0-153.0 153.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 51.4 48.0-53.0 53.0
Soybeans 50.0 49.5-50.0 50.0

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 11
For the week ended Jul 4, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 240.4 0.0 7139.7 5017.5 5578.7 0.0
hrw 52.6 0.0 1747.7 987.3 1400.9 0.0
srw 22.2 0.0 1122.8 1383.6 960.9 0.0
hrs 69.9 0.0 2458.1 1650.1 1975.5 0.0
white 96.7 0.0 1685.2 936.3 1121.5 0.0
durum -1.0 0.0 125.9 60.3 119.9 0.0
corn 538.3 116.5 54273.5 39508.6 9214.3 3641.9
soybeans 208.0 191.3 44996.8 52504.7 3556.3 1567.0
soymeal 53.1 22.8 13132.2 11798.4 2472.5 869.3
soyoil 9.7 -3.5 198.3 124.4 52.8 15.4
upland cotton 54.1 69.5 12992.3 13910.5 3034.3 2264.2
pima cotton 3.9 0.0 348.3 331.3 39.3 4.7
sorghum 112.3 0.0 5567.7 2381.0 406.5 0.3
barley 0.0 0.0 19.3 16.3 18.5 0.0
rice 27.9 29.3 3449.3 1940.6 363.4 203.8

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 12, 2024 43 Jul 03, 2024
ROUGH RICE July Jul 12, 2024 10 Apr 30, 2024
CORN July Jul 12, 2024 25 Jul 03, 2024
SOYBEAN July Jul 12, 2024 20 Jun 27, 2024
WHEAT July Jul 12, 2024 102 Jul 10, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets yesterday on the US harvest progress and ideas of good yields and crops against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France that are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. Russia is likely to expand the war and has reportedly started to make some threats against the US and NATO countries. The US harvest is expanding through Kansas and is now more than 50% complete for the country as a whole and adverse world growing conditions are still around. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 560, 544, and 538 September, with resistance at 5w66, 592, and 600 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 552, 546, and 540 September, with resistance at 578, 588, and 600 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 602, 596, and 590 September, and resistance is at 625, 636, and 646 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower as the market heard that Hurricane Beryl has passed by but hit growing areas with the damaging parts of the storm in and around the Houston area. The system has brought beneficial rains to Arkansas and other part of the Delta. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year and now a hurricane that dropped big amounts of rain on cops again along with some high winds. Inland Texas areas could also see too much rain. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1451, 1441, and 1428 September and resistance is at 1498, 1611, and 1518 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mostly a little lower and Oats closed mostly lower in response to Hurricane Beryl that brought beneficial precipitation to the southern and eastern Midwest. Current forecasts call for hotter and drier weather for the Midwest later this week. Some selling came in anticipation of bearish reports that USDA could release on Friday. Weakness was based on improved crop condition ratings released on Monday afternoon. The US weather features moderate temperatures and increasing chances for rains. Northern areas such as southern Minnesota that have had way too much rain and flooding is still reported.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 391, 388, and 385 September, and resistance is at 398, 412, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 296, 290, and 284 September, and resistance is at 315, 322, and 327 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower again yesterday on follow through selling. Hurricane Beryl brought beneficial precipitation to areas of the southern and eastern Midwest where conditions have been too dry until now. Northern and western areas should turn drier which is also beneficial for crops. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but has cut back and increased purchases from the US on demand due to the tax issues in Brazil and on Brazil logistical concerns. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the biofuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1117 and 1094 August. Support is at 1104, 1092, and 1080 August, and resistance is at 1130, 1151, and 1170 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 334.00 and 318.00 August. Support is at 337.00, 334.00, and 331.00 August, and resistance is at 344.00, 351.00, and 359.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4660 and 4890 August. Support is at 4510, 4440, and 4390 August, with resistance at 5030, 5090, and 6050 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday as demand remains a problem for bullish traders. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was lower yesterday along with US prices. The daily charts show that Canola trends are down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 636.00 and 625.00 November. Support is at 616.00, 599.00, and 591.00 November, with resistance at 648.00, 664.00, and 670.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3770 and 3630 September. Support is at 3850, 3830, and 3780 September, with resistance at 4000, 4050, and 4090 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast Showers and storms mostly south ane east. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 58 July 110 July
60 July
69 July

July 69 July 115 July 60 July 70 July

August 62 Sep 120 Sep 35 Sep 82 Aug

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 895.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 892.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 887.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 872.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 882.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 897.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 895.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 890.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 885.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 900.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 845.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 4,050.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 328.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6855)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 95,633 lots, or 4.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,630 4,640 4,630 4,640 4,536 4,635 99 2 5
Sep-24 4,635 4,641 4,606 4,628 4,632 4,622 -10 84,481 121,593
Nov-24 4,530 4,532 4,510 4,527 4,522 4,522 0 2,165 18,010
Jan-25 4,491 4,496 4,478 4,485 4,487 4,487 0 8,359 37,276
Mar-25 4,468 4,469 4,454 4,458 4,457 4,461 4 376 2,886
May-25 4,487 4,491 4,475 4,478 4,478 4,483 5 250 2,862
Corn
Turnover: 529,192 lots, or 1.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 2,445 2,445 2,445 0 0 0
Sep-24 2,420 2,427 2,411 2,413 2,424 2,418 -6 379,584 778,490
Nov-24 2,339 2,347 2,327 2,329 2,343 2,334 -9 85,401 296,855
Jan-25 2,333 2,339 2,320 2,322 2,335 2,326 -9 50,969 243,088
Mar-25 2,337 2,342 2,322 2,324 2,341 2,330 -11 12,477 55,630
May-25 2,378 2,384 2,367 2,367 2,388 2,374 -14 761 6,547
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,382,725 lots, or 44.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,082 3,082 3,082 3,082 3,082 3,082 0 1 4,249
Aug-24 3,212 3,223 3,160 3,160 3,203 3,197 -6 11,879 56,116
Sep-24 3,241 3,248 3,184 3,185 3,230 3,213 -17 999,446 1,598,755
Nov-24 3,260 3,270 3,213 3,214 3,253 3,243 -10 47,145 431,957
Dec-24 3,304 3,312 3,268 3,270 3,307 3,292 -15 6,416 48,766
Jan-25 3,299 3,301 3,256 3,259 3,284 3,279 -5 212,838 740,714
Mar-25 3,115 3,127 3,080 3,081 3,114 3,100 -14 10,841 53,567
May-25 3,032 3,042 3,012 3,013 3,038 3,024 -14 94,159 498,332
Palm Oil
Turnover: 672,484 lots, or 5.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 7,834 7,834 7,834 0 0 0
Aug-24 7,654 7,706 7,642 7,660 7,692 7,674 -18 456 1,719
Sep-24 7,650 7,692 7,614 7,638 7,648 7,654 6 572,290 417,382
Oct-24 7,628 7,668 7,598 7,616 7,622 7,636 14 929 2,317
Nov-24 7,640 7,652 7,588 7,596 7,618 7,622 4 148 457
Dec-24 7,624 7,636 7,572 7,574 7,606 7,602 -4 84 331
Jan-25 7,590 7,620 7,542 7,554 7,558 7,584 26 90,743 233,826
Feb-25 7,544 7,544 7,544 7,544 7,562 7,544 -18 2 309
Mar-25 7,582 7,594 7,546 7,554 7,538 7,580 42 61 2,264
Apr-25 7,592 7,592 7,558 7,564 7,570 7,580 10 10 222
May-25 7,580 7,612 7,550 7,556 7,560 7,586 26 7,745 34,768
Jun-25 7,590 7,590 7,540 7,550 7,554 7,568 14 16 175
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 458,092 lots, or 34.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 7,580 7,580 7,580 0 0 365
Aug-24 7,550 7,576 7,520 7,534 7,612 7,544 -68 5,090 16,403
Sep-24 7,606 7,628 7,570 7,582 7,638 7,598 -40 364,432 632,615
Nov-24 7,620 7,624 7,572 7,580 7,624 7,596 -28 3,158 12,815
Dec-24 7,706 7,716 7,672 7,674 7,710 7,698 -12 57 1,669
Jan-25 7,712 7,720 7,662 7,672 7,722 7,692 -30 74,882 274,156
Mar-25 7,574 7,612 7,564 7,586 7,588 7,588 0 321 3,305
May-25 7,530 7,552 7,498 7,512 7,524 7,524 0 10,152 74,313
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322