About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337


Hurricane Beryl delivered quite a bit of moisture to the Eastern Corn Belt resulting in a violent downswing yesterday that took out the lows established by the June 28th Acres/Qtly Stocks Report! The mkt is already dialing in a 182-183 BPA yield – well over the 2023 record of 177! That maybe premature given it’s only early July! And it’s all dependent on the yields as the acres are forecast to be 3MA under 2023! The mkt may well correct up this week – in anticipation of Friday’s July WASDE Report! Foreign production is waning – particularly in the Black Sea! And the Western Corn Belt is expected to be hot & dry the 2nd half of July! As well exports have been impressive with over 1mmt Mon & a flash sale of corn to an unknown destination! Finally, a record short open interest has developed which could fuel any fundamental rallies ahead!



Much like Sept Corn, the Hurricane brought needed moisture to the Eastern States causing a collapse in prices yesterday – which is being furthered today! Gd-Ex crop conditions increased 1% to 68%! Tight farmer holding of cash beans supports – as well as the export potential created by the recent dramatic price drop! Beans aren’t made until August so the jury is still out on the yields! But it feels like early harvest lows are being carved out now! Global stocks continue to decrease due to dryness, heat & frost in some major crop areas! Hot & dry is forecast for the end of July in the WCB!



A quick purview of all grain charts shows Sept Wht to be the strongest as it resisted the massive down in corn & beans on Mon & is recovering today! The harvest pressure is easing off the mkt with harvest 63% done & stocks are on the low side as Russia is being less aggressive in its export program! Cumulative export inspections are 23% over last year & the historically low prices promise more of the same!



That was quick! All of a sudden, Aug Cat has corrected $7.00 (188-181)! Definitely, a mkt correction & maybe even a mkt top! Even with boxed beef trading the highest since 6-26-23! The key demand periods – Memorial Day W/E & the 4th of July are in the review mirror & the glaring gap between pork & beef prices in the supermarket is not lost on consumers! We’ll see if the mkt stabilizes late week as cash cattle is relatively strong even though short-term technicals have turned lower!



An interesting dichotomy exists in the hogs – the near-term Aug hogs are  congesting in a $3-4 range after dropping $20 since late April while the Fall contract Oct hogs are plummeting – making new contract lows the last 3 consecutive days! The recent Pig Crop Report indicated bigger #’s down the road & that’s coming to fruition while the front month is holding a tight sideways pattern due to OK demand from the huge disparity between pork & beef in the grocery store!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337