Grains Report 07/08/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 09, 2024 23 Jul 02, 2024
WHEAT July Jul 09, 2024 31 Jul 03, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in all three markets last week on reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France that is affecting world production estimates. Russia is likely to expand the war and has reportedly started to make some threats against the US and NATO countries. USDA showed that the quarterly stocks were a little higher than expected but that planted area was a little below expectations. The US harvest is expanding through Kansas and is now more than 50% complete for the country as a whole and adverse world growing conditions are still around. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 566, 557, and 550 September, with resistance at 605, 614, and 631 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 576, 568, and 565 September, with resistance at 601, 614, and 636 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 602, 596, and 590 September, and resistance is at 646, 649, and 669 September.46

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed sharply lower after the July 4th holiday as the market heard that Hurricane Beryl would miss growing areas with the damaging parts of the storm and might instead bring some beneficial moisture to growing areas. The US weather is now improved and big crops are expected once again after some big rains threatened crops earlier in the growing season. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1453 1451, and 1441 September and resistance is at 1469, 1484, and 1494 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher in response tp longer range forecasts calling for hotter and drier weather for the Midwest starting in the second half of July. Weakness was based on higher than expected planted area estimates released by USDA along with sharply higher than expected quarterly stocks data and strength coming from rallies in Soybeans and Wheat. The US weather features moderate temperatures and increasing chances for rains. Northern areas such as southern Minnesota that have had way too much rain and flooding is still reported. The US Midwest is seeing uneven growing conditions and so are Southeast growing areas. However, USDA kept crop conditions unchanged at high levels and the market sees no real problem at this time.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 136.636 tons of US Corn
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 400, 394, and 388 September, and resistance is at 429, 432, and 443 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 302, 296, and 290 September, and resistance is at 322, 327, and 338 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher. Deteriorating growing conditions in the US and forecasts for more heat and less rain in areas in the Midwest in a couple of weeks were supportive. USDA found less than expected planted area and slightly more stocks than had been expected by the trade. Precipitation chances are high in northern Midwest areas that have already been flooded. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but has cut back and increased purchases from the US on demand due to the tax issues in Brazil and on Brazil logistical concerns. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the biofuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1117 and 1094 August. Support is at 1128, 1116, and 1104 August, and resistance is at 1180, 1185, and 1199 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 344.00, 343.00, and 340.00 August, and resistance is at 359.00, 362.00, and 365.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4660 and 4890 August. Support is at 4510, 4440, and 4390 August, with resistance at 5930, 5990, and 6050 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week and trends are up again. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was sharply higher last week along with US prices. The daily charts show that Canola trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 664.00 and 708.00 November. Support is at 618.00, 599.00, and 591.00 November, with resistance at 664.00, 670.00, and 680.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3770 and 3630 September. Support is at 4020, 3990, and 3960 September, with resistance at 4170, 4220, and 4280 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 58 July 110 July
60 July
69 July

July 69 July 115 July 60 July 70 July

August 62 Sep 120 Sep 35 Sep 82 Aug

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 141,660 lots, or 6.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 4,674 4,674 4,674 0 0 0
Sep-24 4,729 4,734 4,671 4,676 4,716 4,700 -16 122,478 159,269
Nov-24 4,619 4,624 4,557 4,559 4,605 4,588 -17 3,315 18,940
Jan-25 4,590 4,598 4,523 4,530 4,580 4,561 -19 14,547 36,042
Mar-25 4,556 4,559 4,495 4,502 4,547 4,531 -16 738 2,725
May-25 4,566 4,569 4,508 4,515 4,549 4,543 -6 582 2,676
Corn
Turnover: 568,718 lots, or 13.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,445 2,445 2,445 2,445 2,445 2,445 0 51 222
Sep-24 2,469 2,474 2,458 2,459 2,472 2,465 -7 417,172 720,395
Nov-24 2,402 2,406 2,383 2,384 2,403 2,393 -10 72,654 274,529
Jan-25 2,380 2,384 2,368 2,369 2,383 2,375 -8 47,109 205,095
Mar-25 2,380 2,385 2,369 2,370 2,382 2,379 -3 30,224 54,566
May-25 2,427 2,428 2,416 2,417 2,426 2,420 -6 1,508 5,057
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,561,411 lots, or 5.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,176 3,176 3,176 3,176 3,176 3,176 0 72 4,249
Aug-24 3,310 3,333 3,283 3,290 3,301 3,307 6 24,832 68,327
Sep-24 3,338 3,359 3,308 3,313 3,327 3,332 5 1,111,714 1,721,949
Nov-24 3,383 3,385 3,333 3,338 3,350 3,358 8 43,235 417,663
Dec-24 3,421 3,439 3,395 3,400 3,403 3,420 17 7,161 47,193
Jan-25 3,415 3,432 3,384 3,388 3,393 3,407 14 262,101 724,559
Mar-25 3,199 3,209 3,166 3,168 3,180 3,191 11 21,412 56,147
May-25 3,094 3,099 3,072 3,073 3,080 3,087 7 90,884 450,378
Palm Oil
Turnover: 887,579 lots, or 70.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 7,834 7,834 7,834 0 0 0
Aug-24 8,004 8,012 7,872 7,910 8,074 7,964 -110 6,758 1,957
Sep-24 7,950 8,020 7,854 7,904 8,004 7,928 -76 786,668 539,922
Oct-24 7,876 7,942 7,800 7,852 7,928 7,862 -66 2,070 2,385
Nov-24 7,850 7,922 7,782 7,836 7,906 7,844 -62 321 502
Dec-24 7,852 7,896 7,784 7,818 7,900 7,822 -78 126 365
Jan-25 7,850 7,918 7,772 7,824 7,904 7,834 -70 80,543 225,318
Feb-25 7,820 7,886 7,758 7,790 7,898 7,846 -52 50 325
Mar-25 7,822 7,868 7,762 7,794 7,894 7,834 -60 215 2,305
Apr-25 7,832 7,880 7,768 7,812 7,892 7,836 -56 78 215
May-25 7,846 7,906 7,780 7,832 7,888 7,830 -58 10,731 29,822
Jun-25 7,800 7,838 7,766 7,788 7,858 7,798 -60 19 187
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 543,401 lots, or 43.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,580 7,580 7,580 7,580 7,662 7,580 -82 15 365
Aug-24 7,902 7,950 7,820 7,842 7,934 7,894 -40 5,562 23,910
Sep-24 7,966 8,002 7,870 7,892 7,986 7,932 -54 435,629 623,750
Nov-24 7,962 7,994 7,870 7,890 7,970 7,916 -54 1,671 10,220
Dec-24 8,032 8,064 7,954 7,984 8,062 7,996 -66 143 1,632
Jan-25 8,056 8,074 7,950 7,978 8,056 8,010 -46 90,253 276,384
Mar-25 7,830 7,876 7,782 7,810 7,862 7,818 -44 232 3,485
May-25 7,756 7,816 7,720 7,748 7,794 7,756 -38 9,896 62,877
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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