About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. May Coffee, Cocoa Imports-July 3
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-May 2024—- —-Apr 2024—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 117,422,668 258,916,983 122,793,173 270,758,946
coffee, roasted 10,684,380 23,559,058 10,564,924 23,295,657
coffee, soluble
instant 6,041,623 13,321,779 6,958,399 15,343,270
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 15,750,133 34,729,043 15,372,348 33,896,027
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,708,511 5,972,267 2,852,824 6,290,477
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 7,525,336 16,593,366 7,769,313 17,131,335
cocoa paste,
not defatted 4,884,484 10,770,287 5,531,990 12,198,038
cocoa paste
defatted 6,538,959 14,418,405 3,969,310 8,752,329
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 7,345,094 16,195,932 9,043,042 19,939,908
cocoa powder,
sweetened 46,438 102,396 130,962 288,771
confectioners
coating 5,328,452 11,749,237 5,255,546 11,588,479
candy containing
chocolate 15,193,666 33,502,034 14,072,421 31,029,688

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday but held the recent trading range. USDA showed a decrease in production conditions for the crops in its reports this week that were the result of some extreme weather seen recently in Texas and the Southeast. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and Chinese demand for Cotton has started to increase.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 132 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 72.00, 71.20, and 70.00 December, with resistance of 75.80, 77.70 and 79.40 December.

DJ U.S. May Cotton Exports-Jul 3
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
May 24 Apr 24 Mar 24 May 23
Upland, under 1 inch 4,652,569 7,873,341 14,160,166 12,991,518
1 to 1 1/8 inch 50,176,250 57,489,836 89,426,716 110,156,517
upland 1 1/8 and over 7,374,603 6,039,310 3,937,541 9,748,451
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 157,647,532 192,154,448 248,392,517 191,109,340
All cotton 219,850,954 263,556,935 355,916,940 324,005,826
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
May 24 Apr 24 Mar 24 May 23
Upland, under 1 inch 21,369 36,162 65,037 59,670
1 to 1 1/8 inch 230,458 264,049 410,734 505,945
upland 1 1/8 and over 33,871 27,738 18,085 44,774
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 724,069 882,558 1,140,858 877,758
All cotton 1,009,767 1,210,507 1,634,713 1,488,147

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday and trends are turning up again. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 422.00, 410.00, and 403.00 September, with resistance at 441.00, 457.00, and 459.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher as more reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market and forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam are still heard. Vietnam said it exported 902,000 tons of Coffee in the first six months of this year, down 10.6% from last year. A little rain has been reported in Vietnam recently to help crops there. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest but the main focus is on the terrible conditions in Vietnam. Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 228.21 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 622 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 217.00, 212.00, and 203.00 September, and resistance is at 229.00, 236.00 and 238.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3960, 3820, and 3740 July, with resistance at 4300, 4390, and 4450 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed mostly higher as harvest progress in Brazil was the important fundamental but as world supplies remain rather tight. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil have been disappointing so far. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. End users need Sugar but are not finding too much available in the cash market. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather, but now the cry weather is causing concern about developing Sugarcane in center south areas. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries and above average rains are in the forecast for India.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2070 and 2170 October. Support is at 1970, 1920, and 1880 October and resistance is at 2090, 2140, and 2170 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 575.00 and 600.00 October. Support is at 550.00, 550.00, and 528.00 October, with resistance at 581.00, 590.00, and 599.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher in Turnaround Tuesday trading yesterday and chart trends are down. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 919 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 6960, 6420, and 6000 September, with resistance at 8000, 8130, and 8670 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5790, 5350, and 4920 September, with resistance at 6810, 7420, and 7940 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322