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Phil Flynn

Phil Flynn is writer of The Energy Report, a daily market commentary discussing oil, the Middle East, American government, economics, and their effects on the world's energies markets, as well as other commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (888) 264-5665

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Storm Surge. The Energy Report 07/01/2024

By On July 1, 2024 - 7:40 AM · In Market Commentaries, Phil Flynn Energy Report
Energy up on rising storms of different natures. Weather Risks, geopolitical risk, the possibility of an oil supply deficit and predictions of record Fourth of July travel are being tempered with Data from the Energy Information Administration that touts oil and gas production and disappointing Canada Trans Mountain Pipeline loadings suggesting weak Chinese demand. Is that anyway to celebrate Canada Day?

We should start with some of the geopolitical risk factors that are mounting. Fox News Lucas Tomlinson tweeted that, “All U.S. military bases in Europe have been put on heightened alert status due to a potential terrorist attack. There is credible intel pointing to an attack against U.S. bases in Europe over the next week or so,” a U.S. defense official tells Fox News.

ESSA News reported that NATO representatives have expressed concern over Russia’s actions in the North Sea. The issue pertains to the potential mining of key Western infrastructure. Russian ships reportedly performed up to 1,000 suspicious maneuvers. According to the British newspaper “The Times,” the suspicions are based on data from companies servicing key oil and gas drilling platforms, pipelines, power, and telecommunications cables. No sabotage has been detected on Belgian or Dutch cables. But explosives have been found on a British cable at the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, according to “The Times.”

The AP reports that U.S., European and Arab mediators are pressing to keep stepped-up cross-border attacks between Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militants from spiraling into a wider Middle East war that the world has feared for months. Iran and Israel traded threats Saturday on what Iran said would be an “obliterating” war over Hezbollah.

These increased risk factors will add a premium for the shipment of oil and gas it should be reflected in the futures market especially as we get into a holiday week where trading is a bit thinner, and people are more nervous.
Reuters is reporting that, “About 20 ships loaded crude oil on Canada’s West Coast in the first full month of operation on the newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline, according to vessel-tracking data on Sunday, slightly below the operator’s forecast. Loadings from the pipeline expansion are closely watched because the Canadian government wants to sell the $24.84 billion (C$34 billion) line. Questions about oil quality, pipeline economics and loading challenges have swirled since its startup, spurring concerns over demand and exports of crude.

The 20 vessels loaded were less than the 22 ships that Trans Mountain had initially expected to load for the month. Total crude exports from Vancouver were around 350,000 barrels per day with the last two vessels for June-loading at the Westridge Marine terminal, as of Sunday. Still Reuters reported that, “U.S. energy production overshadowed consumption by 9 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) in 2023, according to an analysis released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday that showed the widest margin in records dating back to 1949. Energy production rose 4% to hit a record of nearly 103 quads in 2023, the analysis found, while energy consumption eased 1%.

Even with the numbers that are being touted by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) there is still an expectation that we’ll see a supply deficit later this year. Obviously demand from China continues to be a concern but overall, we still expect that things will get tight especially with what’s happening on the weather front.

The Atlantic weather pictures is still a concern. Also a concern, Fox Weather is reporting that the situation in the Caribbean is becoming more dire, and residents are being warned to finish preparations as soon as possible ahead of Hurricane Beryl. The storm rapidly intensified and strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane and could unleash catastrophic destruction across populated island nations starting early Monday morning. “Extremely dangerous Category 4 Beryl (is) approaching the Windward Islands,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Sunday evening. “Life-threatening winds and storm surge expected there early Monday morning.”
Hurricane Beryl is now the second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and quickly strengthened from a tropical depression into a tropical storm and then a hurricane – all within 24 hours. Not only is Hurricane Beryl intense, but it’s also made history. Hurricane Beryl intensified from a tropical depression into a major Category 3 hurricane in less than 48 hours, a feat never achieved earlier than September.
Triple A reported last week that, “the national average shook off nearly three weeks of stagnation, moving a nickel higher since last week to hit $3.50. The move came as the cost of oil crossed the $80 per barrel mark, putting upward pressure on pump prices. With oil costs accounting for about 54% of what you pay at the pump, more expensive oil usually leads to more expensive gas.

“Summer got off to a slow start last week with low gas demand,” said Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson. “But with a record 60 million travelers forecast to hit the road for the July 4th holiday, that number could pop over the next ten days. But will oil stay above $80 a barrel, or will it sag again? Stay tuned.
Several states will adjust fuel taxes and fees starting Monday, July 1. Indiana is increasing the tax on gasoline/gasohol by a cent to 35cts/gal. Virginia increased the tax on gasoline, gasohol, and alternative fuels such as CNG and LNG by a penny to 30.8cts/gal. However, Michigan will keep the current gas tax rate at 18.8cts/gal while reducing the clear diesel fuel and kerosene tax from 21.3cts/gal to 20.4cts/gal.

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Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report

Contributor to FOX Business Network

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