Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Softs Report 06/25/2024
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply higher yesterday on ideas that US growing conditions are deteriorating. Big storms were reported in southern Texas last week that could damage crops. There are also some big problems with too much sun and no rain in the Delta and Southeast in recent weeks. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and Chinese demand for Cotton has started to increase.
Overnight News: ICE said that 98 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 119 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 72.00, 71.20, and 70.00 December, with resistance of 74.40, 74.70 and 77.70 December.
This Week Last Qeek Last Year Average
Cotton Planted 94 90 94 96
Cotton Squaring 38 22 25 28
Cotton Setting Bolls 8 6 4 5
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 5 9 30 51 5
Cotton Last Week 2 11 33 47 7
Cotton Last Year 6 12 33 43 6
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower in range trading yesterday. The daily charts show that the market is trying to form a bottom. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 406.00, 389.00, and 384.00 July, with resistance at 452.00, 473.00, and 477.00 July.
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply higher yesterday but were higher for the week on reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market and forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam are still heard. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest. Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally. There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, buts in small amounts,
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 235.69 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 210 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 220.00, 217.00, and 212.00 September, and resistance is at 236.00, 238.00 and 241.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 3310 and 4610 September. Support is at 4180, 4070, and 3960 July, with resistance at 4390, 4450, and 4610 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday as harvest progress in Brazil was the important fundamental. The potential for a new tax regime in Brazil also supported the market as it could raise costs on producers and force them to hold crops from the market. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. End users need Sugar but are not finding too much available in the cash market. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather, but now the cry weather is causing concern about developing Sugarcane in center south areas. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1920, 1880, and 1860 July and resistance is at 2000, 2050, and 2100 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 559.00, 552.00, and 544.00 August, with resistance at 578.00, 586.00, and 595.00 August.
COCOA
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday and chart trends are turning down. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 1 notice was posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month is now 1 contract.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 7470, 6970, and 6420 September, with resistance at 6500, 6630, and 6970 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6130, 5790, and 5350 September, with resistance at 7420, 7940, and 8300 September.