AgMaster Report 06/25/2024

JULY BEANS

Benign weather & excellent crop conditions have trumped all else as the mkt remains under pressure going into the all-important USDA – Acres/Qtly Stocks Report due Fri at 11am! Acres are estimated at 86.8MA (ly-83.6)! Gd-Ex ratings went down from 70-67% – still high for late June! Flooding in the northern states has mitigated some of the down! Rain doesn’t always make grain! A Monday flash sale of 228,000 of meal to the Philippines was confirmed – short-covering should occur in front of Fri report! The mkt has dialed in a pretty good crop but Beans aren’t really made until August!

 

JULY CORN

 Despite a 3% drop in the Gd-Ex ratings, a flash sale today of 209,000MT to Mexico and hot/dry conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt, the mkt’s least path of resistance is down with adequate moisture so far for the Western Corn Belt! However, the mkt’s recent break has already dialed in a sizeable crop & the mkt price is $2.00 cheaper than last Summer already! July weather is still the primary determinant of the corn crop – as well, a major grain report happens on Friday – also the last day of the week, month & quarter! So, we expect some evening up going into Friday!

 

JULY WHT

 Better-than-expected US harvest weather & less threatening weather in the Black Sea have combined to drive July Wht down 70 cents in the past 6 trading sessions! But US WW harvest is approaching 50% – which should relieve some of the bearish hedge pressure on  the mkt! Also, a recent Russian crop estimate came in at 79.5MT (USDA-83)! After dropping over $1.70 in the last month, the contract is extremely oversold – going into the big USDA report on Friday!

 

AUG CAT

Aug Cat posted their highest close since Oct 2023 – remarkably rejecting a bearish cattle-on-feed Report (plcmts 6% over ests)– as the mkt fed off record high cash cattle trade (195-197 in the north)! As well, the demand-best “grilling season” continues to feed the mkt as we approach the 4^th of July holiday! The cattle’s strength is especially impressive in the face of its neighboring hog mkt’s continuing weakness – with the wide disparity between Beef & Pork in the supermarket – not yet impacting their relative demand!

 

JULY HOGS

 Heavy selling entered the hog complex early Monday morning – pushing July Hogs to new contract lows – thus negating the upside reversal seen early last week!  Cutout remains very weak & the quarterly Pig Crop Report due out on Thur at 2pm is expected to be negative – adding to the pressure on the mkt! The incredible disparity between pork & beef in the grocery store has not yet inexplicably altered demand – so far! We feel it soon will – helping to bottom out hog futures!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337