Grains Report 06/24/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets last week on reports of cheaper prices offered from Russia and as the US harvest expands and even as adverse world growing conditions are still around. There are more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. However, US producers are reporting strong yields that exceed expectations so far and very good conditions. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 558 July. Support is at 558, 550, and 543 July, with resistance at 593, 603, and 632 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 580, 568, and 554 July, with resistance at 623, 630, and 643 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 608, 596, and 590 July, and resistance is at 635, 656, and 659 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 489,836
: Positions :
: 46,202 113,349 157,651 98,532 116,223 149,804 61,206 452,190 448,429: 37,647 41,407
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -27,742) :
: -8,083 -6,347 -15,163 4,595 -8,363 -11,464 4,166 -30,115 -25,707: 2,373 -2,036
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.4 23.1 32.2 20.1 23.7 30.6 12.5 92.3 91.5: 7.7 8.5
: Total Traders: 375 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97 94 142 101 111 47 33 319 315:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 260,735
: Positions :
: 27,913 65,889 61,117 65,801 87,991 87,503 19,644 242,334 234,640: 18,401 26,095
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -20,530) :
: -2,783 109 -9,857 815 -4,159 -8,441 -6,859 -20,266 -20,766: -265 236
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.7 25.3 23.4 25.2 33.7 33.6 7.5 92.9 90.0: 7.1 10.0
: Total Traders: 221 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 41 48 61 70 74 38 21 184 172:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 65,721 :
: Positions :
: 30,266 34,790 3,200 151 208 12,313 9,778 5,635 1,263 869 3,362 :
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 :
: 3,443 -3,097 -561 -215 11 -564 4,633 791 -1,339 48 521 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.1 52.9 4.9 0.2 0.3 18.7 14.9 8.6 1.9 1.3 5.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 113 :
: 59 46 5 . . 14 17 14 7 6 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed near unchanged last week. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop. Big storms have brought significant rains to crops in Texas, but the weather is better now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1753, 1741, and 1725 July and resistance is at 1823, 1872, and 1900 July

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,275 :
: Positions :
: 4,264 6,129 143 0 0 670 1,341 1 1,470 109 674 :
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 :
: 234 -409 -18 0 0 -262 423 -162 301 77 71 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.0 66.1 1.5 0.0 0.0 7.2 14.5 0.0 15.8 1.2 7.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 53 :
: 20 19 . 0 0 6 7 . 10 4 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower last week on US weather that remains hot and mostly dry now, but should turn cooler next week. The US Midwest is still seeing good growing conditions although it has turned hot and dry now. The heat is expected to partially end next week but dry weather remains a concern. The market anticipated that crop condition ratings would be very high in the USDA reports last week and will anticipate high crop ratings this week. Oats were lower on good growing conditions found in the northern US and into Canada. Demand has been a force behind the rally. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 434, 428, and 422 July, and resistance is at 452, 456, and 460 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 298, 292, and 286 July, and resistance is at 320, 330, and 340 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,057,510
: Positions :
: 172,125 358,231 646,165 572,320 613,379 479,412 206,943 1,870,022 1,824,717: 187,488 232,793
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -9,589) :
: 15,679 7,458 -10,734 12,640 25,024 -28,477 -26,655 -10,893 -4,906: 1,304 -4,683
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.4 17.4 31.4 27.8 29.8 23.3 10.1 90.9 88.7: 9.1 11.3
: Total Traders: 783 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 147 143 203 366 351 55 37 679 641:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower last week on good but deteriorating growing conditions in the US and on forecasts for less heat in the Midwest this week. Precipitation chances are uncertain but the heat is expected to be less. There were wire reports that China prices are weakening amid veery strong imports from Brazil and from the US. US exports are more than 150% higher than a year ago due to logistical and production problems this year in Brazil. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but has cut back on demand if the domestic market does not improve and on ye tax issues in Brazil. Some of that demand has moved to the US. China said that it has increased exports of Soybean Meal due to the weaker internal demand. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the biofuels market.
Overnight News: Philippines bought 228,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1155 and 1123 July . Support is at 1146, 1141, and 1134 July, and resistance is at 1180, 1193, and 1205 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 350.00 and 324.00 July. Support is at 350.00, 345.00, and 342.00 July, and resistance is at 373.00, 376.00, and 381.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4330 and 4130 July. Support is at 4310, 4270, and 4250 July, with resistance at 4530, 4690, and 4780 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,056,572
: Positions :
: 59,952 157,312 317,754 422,810 430,053 198,474 72,398 998,990 977,518: 57,582 79,054
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -17,842) :
: -2,392 4,482 -14,168 9,574 -9,529 -10,697 5,521 -17,683 -13,694: -159 -4,148
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.7 14.9 30.1 40.0 40.7 18.8 6.9 94.6 92.5: 5.4 7.5
: Total Traders: 567 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 106 158 190 207 211 49 27 482 477:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 614,955
: Positions :
: 58,194 148,268 144,411 219,375 256,687 159,476 38,038 581,456 587,405: 33,499 27,549
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -325) :
: 2,483 13,822 2,074 6,182 -8,514 -10,901 -6,915 -161 468: -164 -794
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 24.1 23.5 35.7 41.7 25.9 6.2 94.6 95.5: 5.4 4.5
: Total Traders: 339 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 88 101 103 95 45 28 275 266:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 546,457
: Positions :
: 95,763 40,801 137,077 128,007 314,325 134,317 23,701 495,164 515,904: 51,293 30,553
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,989) :
: -10,084 -5,662 13,286 5,219 308 -3,265 -2,782 5,156 5,149: -166 -160
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.5 7.5 25.1 23.4 57.5 24.6 4.3 90.6 94.4: 9.4 5.6
: Total Traders: 335 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 67 95 115 124 40 22 277 272:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower last week in range trading. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was a little higher last week despite reports of generally good conditions in Canada and as the Canadian Dollar rallied. The Brazil news was bearish as well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 593.00 and 566.00 July. Support is at 597.00, 594.00, and 585.00 July, with resistance at 626.00, 642.00, and 645.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3880, 3860, and 3780 September, with resistance at 3970, 4020, and 4080 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 43,711 :
: Positions :
: 34,311 15,370 1,120 15,565 50 600 2,420 80 710 3,416 6,810 :
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 :
: 1,125 1,060 120 95 0 0 340 0 170 -20 120 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 78.5 35.2 2.6 35.6 0.1 1.4 5.5 0.2 1.6 7.8 15.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :
: 8 9 . 4 . . . . . 6 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 247,875 :
: Positions :
: 203,049 96,803 4,226 13,087 419 2,210 100,068 16,452 12,359 10,589 8,084 :
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 :
: 9,863 -19,589 -149 1,038 -998 -2,187 27,658 -9,026 2,227 410 -897 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.9 39.1 1.7 5.3 0.2 0.9 40.4 6.6 5.0 4.3 3.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 320 :
: 53 62 4 6 5 9 88 27 52 73 49 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 58 July 110 July
60 July
69 July

July 69 July 115 July 60 July 70 July

August 62 Sep 120 Sep 35 Sep 82 Aug

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Jul 880.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 877.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 867.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 880.00 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 882.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 880.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 882.50 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 882.50 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 835.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 3,980.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 294.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.71)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 199,887 lots, or 9.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,688 4,724 4,680 4,704 4,675 4,704 29 8,191 4,631
Sep-24 4,584 4,645 4,581 4,637 4,552 4,616 64 169,395 137,674
Nov-24 4,462 4,524 4,462 4,519 4,451 4,502 51 5,448 18,281
Jan-25 4,443 4,507 4,443 4,503 4,432 4,484 52 15,326 33,928
Mar-25 4,431 4,488 4,431 4,486 4,425 4,455 30 604 2,864
May-25 4,431 4,486 4,431 4,482 4,430 4,452 22 923 1,815
Corn
Turnover: 767,678 lots, or 19.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,442 2,470 2,439 2,465 2,442 2,456 14 54,599 91,264
Sep-24 2,464 2,499 2,462 2,495 2,466 2,485 19 612,034 733,619
Nov-24 2,418 2,449 2,415 2,444 2,419 2,439 20 51,271 220,192
Jan-25 2,393 2,421 2,391 2,415 2,396 2,410 14 34,803 157,959
Mar-25 2,395 2,421 2,394 2,416 2,401 2,411 10 14,369 37,295
May-25 2,436 2,455 2,434 2,448 2,440 2,448 8 602 3,057
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,546,289 lots, or 51.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,151 3,182 3,141 3,150 3,160 3,158 -2 13,925 29,606
Aug-24 3,310 3,348 3,296 3,323 3,319 3,324 5 18,718 97,418
Sep-24 3,334 3,374 3,321 3,347 3,346 3,349 3 1,220,332 1,774,640
Nov-24 3,347 3,392 3,337 3,370 3,359 3,371 12 31,896 384,268
Dec-24 3,362 3,402 3,357 3,380 3,375 3,381 6 2,240 40,823
Jan-25 3,350 3,389 3,345 3,371 3,358 3,368 10 210,032 435,698
Mar-25 3,200 3,237 3,193 3,221 3,204 3,217 13 2,038 28,528
May-25 3,047 3,076 3,039 3,063 3,055 3,057 2 47,108 242,003
Palm Oil
Turnover: 872,802 lots, or 66.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,716 7,760 7,630 7,696 7,746 7,688 -58 438 534
Aug-24 7,662 7,720 7,594 7,656 7,694 7,656 -38 3,519 3,274
Sep-24 7,654 7,710 7,576 7,634 7,690 7,644 -46 795,375 499,846
Oct-24 7,622 7,668 7,554 7,604 7,660 7,604 -56 158 465
Nov-24 7,628 7,670 7,556 7,608 7,654 7,598 -56 203 567
Dec-24 7,640 7,680 7,572 7,610 7,638 7,618 -20 143 409
Jan-25 7,620 7,692 7,574 7,620 7,668 7,634 -34 67,640 181,883
Feb-25 7,620 7,674 7,572 7,620 7,634 7,608 -26 50 349
Mar-25 7,622 7,672 7,580 7,630 7,664 7,620 -44 105 2,357
Apr-25 7,608 7,666 7,582 7,590 7,650 7,608 -42 23 186
May-25 7,590 7,658 7,574 7,622 7,628 7,612 -16 5,145 18,486
Jun-25 7,580 7,622 7,580 7,622 7,606 7,594 -12 3 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 635,773 lots, or 49.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,738 7,760 7,654 7,678 7,758 7,718 -40 727 2,136
Aug-24 7,792 7,832 7,732 7,776 7,804 7,786 -18 4,558 28,368
Sep-24 7,828 7,884 7,782 7,832 7,858 7,838 -20 544,550 664,536
Nov-24 7,862 7,910 7,812 7,858 7,878 7,868 -10 1,036 6,054
Dec-24 7,916 7,974 7,890 7,938 7,966 7,946 -20 51 1,531
Jan-25 7,886 7,950 7,848 7,900 7,916 7,902 -14 78,536 199,815
Mar-25 7,670 7,748 7,660 7,712 7,706 7,716 10 165 3,507
May-25 7,580 7,658 7,558 7,612 7,620 7,620 0 6,150 36,025
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322