Grains Report 06/21/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 21
For the week ended Jun 13, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 589.7 -11.0 5426.9 4060.9 4792.1 0.0
hrw 119.4 0.0 1245.6 815.1 1165.2 0.0
srw 67.8 -11.0 905.0 1197.2 831.2 0.0
hrs 196.2 0.0 1865.3 1270.3 1638.8 0.0
white 206.3 0.0 1302.1 683.8 1048.0 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 108.9 94.6 108.9 0.0
corn 511.4 93.6 52835.9 38648.0 10727.4 3074.5
soybeans 556.5 84.0 44334.1 52106.5 3800.3 1123.6
soymeal 178.8 32.8 12646.8 11490.3 2697.2 533.6
soyoil 20.9 -0.4 182.8 128.5 83.0 23.4
upland cotton 189.0 111.8 12732.1 13652.6 3251.7 2070.2
pima cotton 7.9 0.0 337.3 317.3 44.3 5.1
sorghum 55.1 0.0 5453.0 2015.1 402.3 0.3
barley 0.0 0.0 19.3 16.3 18.9 0.0
rice 85.6 24.3 3376.3 1911.2 484.5 98.5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets again yesterday on reports of cheaper prices offered from Russia and as the US harvest expands and even as adverse world growing conditions are still around. There are more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. However, US producers are reporting strong yields that exceed expectations so far and very good conditions. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 558 July. Support is at 559, 550, and 543 July, with resistance at 593, 603, and 632 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 580, 568, and 554 July, with resistance at 623, 630, and 643 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 608, 596, and 590 July, and resistance is at 635, 656, and 659 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop. Big storms have brought significant rains to crops in Texas, but the weather is better now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1753, 1741, and 1725 July and resistance is at 1820, 1872, and 1900 July

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on US weather that remains hot and mostly dry now, but should turn cooler next week. The US Midwest is still seeing good growing conditions although it has turned hot and dry now. The heat is expected to partially end next week but dry weather remains a concern. The market anticipated that crop condition ratings would be very high in the USDA reports last week and will anticipate high crop ratings this week. Oats were lower on good growing conditions found in the northern US and into Canada. Demand has been a force behind the rally. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 438, 436, and 434 July, and resistance is at 452, 456, and 460 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 310, 304, and 298 July, and resistance is at 330, 340, and 350 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed mostly lower yesterday, on good but deteriorating growing conditions in the US and on forecasts for less heat in the Midwest next week. Precipitation chances are uncertain at this time. There were wire reports that China prices are weakening amid veery strong imports from Brazil and from the US. US exports are more than 150% higher than a year ago due to logistical and production problems this year in Brazil. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but has cut back on demand if the domestic market does not improve and on ye tax issues in Brazil. Some of that demand has moved to the US. China said that it has increased exports of Soybean Meal due to the weaker internal demand. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the biofuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1155 and 1123 July . Support is at 1146, 1141, and 1134 July, and resistance is at 1180, 1193, and 1205 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 350.00 and 324.00 July. Support is at 350.00, 345.00, and 342.00 July, and resistance is at 373.00, 376.00, and 381.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4330 and 4130 July. Support is at 4310, 4270, and 4250 July, with resistance at 4530, 4690, and 4780 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher on stronger demand ideas. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was lower on reports of generally good conditions in Canada and as the Canadian Dollar rallied. The Brazil news was bearish as well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 593.00 and 566.00 July. Support is at 597.00, 594.00, and 585.00 July, with resistance at 626.00, 642.00, and 645.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3880, 3860, and 3780 September, with resistance at 3970, 4020, and 4080 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 59 July 115 July
40 July
66 July

July 60 July 115 July 40 July 67 July

August 56 Sep 110 Sep 30 Sep 70 Aug

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 882.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 880.00 — Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 877.50 — Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 865.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 885.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 882.50 — Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 880.00 — Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 867.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 880.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 837.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 3,980.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 294.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.705)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 121,771 lots, or .55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,658 4,690 4,647 4,688 4,656 4,675 19 8,450 8,241
Sep-24 4,529 4,580 4,526 4,579 4,523 4,552 29 99,922 144,922
Nov-24 4,434 4,473 4,429 4,467 4,429 4,451 22 3,602 17,632
Jan-25 4,416 4,453 4,414 4,443 4,419 4,432 13 9,135 31,442
Mar-25 4,408 4,442 4,406 4,431 4,410 4,425 15 485 2,866
May-25 4,420 4,442 4,419 4,428 4,420 4,430 10 177 1,821
Corn
Turnover: 380,543 lots, or 9.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,440 2,446 2,437 2,441 2,440 2,442 2 30,457 114,526
Sep-24 2,467 2,471 2,460 2,465 2,463 2,466 3 299,813 739,867
Nov-24 2,422 2,424 2,415 2,418 2,418 2,419 1 18,268 221,640
Jan-25 2,399 2,401 2,392 2,393 2,396 2,396 0 16,167 158,482
Mar-25 2,403 2,406 2,394 2,395 2,402 2,401 -1 15,378 36,306
May-25 2,442 2,446 2,435 2,435 2,442 2,440 -2 460 3,138
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,628,219 lots, or 54.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,178 3,186 3,142 3,154 3,188 3,160 -28 9,582 34,065
Aug-24 3,339 3,346 3,302 3,309 3,345 3,319 -26 15,854 95,759
Sep-24 3,360 3,372 3,326 3,334 3,370 3,346 -24 1,274,629 1,782,029
Nov-24 3,380 3,387 3,342 3,345 3,390 3,359 -31 28,277 382,056
Dec-24 3,389 3,396 3,356 3,362 3,401 3,375 -26 3,703 40,967
Jan-25 3,372 3,378 3,341 3,350 3,387 3,358 -29 232,646 437,976
Mar-25 3,224 3,229 3,191 3,197 3,237 3,204 -33 2,608 28,451
May-25 3,072 3,080 3,041 3,045 3,080 3,055 -25 60,920 234,488
Palm Oil
Turnover: 835,651 lots, or 64.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,744 7,792 7,682 7,686 7,744 7,746 2 400 871
Aug-24 7,700 7,758 7,642 7,658 7,692 7,694 2 3,016 3,434
Sep-24 7,732 7,768 7,628 7,644 7,704 7,690 -14 754,653 520,709
Oct-24 7,702 7,736 7,602 7,616 7,694 7,660 -34 207 474
Nov-24 7,718 7,724 7,600 7,616 7,682 7,654 -28 104 609
Dec-24 7,722 7,722 7,604 7,622 7,678 7,638 -40 101 415
Jan-25 7,686 7,736 7,608 7,626 7,682 7,668 -14 68,451 176,255
Feb-25 7,692 7,698 7,600 7,608 7,672 7,634 -38 42 339
Mar-25 7,708 7,710 7,608 7,620 7,674 7,664 -10 36 2,360
Apr-25 7,700 7,700 7,610 7,622 7,658 7,650 -8 15 186
May-25 7,644 7,684 7,576 7,588 7,638 7,628 -10 8,621 17,680
Jun-25 7,598 7,624 7,582 7,582 7,576 7,606 30 5 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 591,047 lots, or 46.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,772 7,808 7,686 7,700 7,788 7,758 -30 1,619 2,596
Aug-24 7,840 7,878 7,760 7,776 7,852 7,804 -48 4,252 28,473
Sep-24 7,890 7,930 7,808 7,826 7,904 7,858 -46 502,026 668,484
Nov-24 7,924 7,950 7,836 7,856 7,926 7,878 -48 444 5,756
Dec-24 7,990 8,008 7,912 7,920 7,982 7,966 -16 39 1,529
Jan-25 7,958 7,980 7,866 7,886 7,944 7,916 -28 74,583 195,971
Mar-25 7,760 7,760 7,658 7,658 7,752 7,706 -46 164 3,564
May-25 7,648 7,682 7,556 7,572 7,656 7,620 -36 7,920 34,646
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322