Grains Report 06/20/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets again yesterday on reports of cheaper prices offered from Russia and as the US harvest expands and even as adverse world growing conditions are still around. There are more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. However, US producers are reporting strong yields that exceed expectations so far and very good conditions. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 583 and 558 July. Support is at 580, 575, and 569 July, with resistance at 613, 630, and 640 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 598, 592, and 580 July, with resistance at 660, 675, and 690 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 620, 608, and 596 July, and resistance is at 641, 670, and 679 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday after seeing some wild price action as the July contract continues to liquidate longs and shorts in a violent way. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop. Big storms have brought significant rains to crops in Texas, but the weather is better now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1753, 1741, and 1725 July and resistance is at 1820, 1872, and 1900 July

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday on US weather that remains hot and mostly dry and more news that Brazil has proposed new export taxes on Agricultural goods of 20% and on reports that Brazil farmer are now selling to beat the tax bill. Congress must approve the measure and has already rejected the move once. The US Midwest is still seeing good growing conditions although it has turned hot and dry now. The market anticipated that crop condition ratings would be very high in the USDA reports last week and will anticipate high crop ratings this week. Oats were lower on good growing conditions found in the northern US and into Canada. The weather in the Midwest has been very wet but it is drier and warm now. Demand has been a force behind the rally. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 438, 436, and 434 July, and resistance is at 449, 456, and 460 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 310, 304, and 298 July, and resistance is at 330, 340, and 350 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed mostly higher yesterday, on good but deteriorating growing conditions in the US and on reports of increased taxes for Brazil farmers that apparently are now causing farmers to sell. The government there has proposed a new tax on farm production and exports of up to 20%. Congress must approve the measure and has rejected it once already, but the government is trying again. There were wire reports that China prices are weakening amid veery strong imports from Brazil. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but has cut back on demand if the domestic market does not improve and on ye tax issues in Brazil. Some of that demand has moved to the US. China said that it has increased exports of Soybean Meal due to the weaker internal demand. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the biofuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1155 and 1123 July . Support is at 1157, 1146, and 1141 July, and resistance is at 1180, 1193, and 1205 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 350.00 and 324.00 July. Support is at 350.00, 345.00, and 342.00 July, and resistance is at 373.00, 376.00, and 381.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4330 and 4130 July. Support is at 4310, 4270, and 4250 July, with resistance at 4530, 4690, and 4780 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher on stronger demand ideas. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was lower on reports of generally good conditions in Canada and as the Canadian Dollar rallied. The Brazil news was bearish as well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 593.00 and 566.00 July. Support is at 597.00, 594.00, and 585.00 July, with resistance at 626.00, 642.00, and 645.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3880, 3860, and 3780 September, with resistance at 3970, 4020, and 4080 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 59 July 115 July
40 July
66 July

July 60 July 115 July 40 July 67 July

August 56 Sep 110 Sep 30 Sep 70 Aug

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 885.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 885.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 887.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 887.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 877.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 885.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 842.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 4,000.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 294.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.708)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 76,338 lots, or 3.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,649 4,679 4,638 4,664 4,644 4,656 12 11,986 12,580
Sep-24 4,509 4,532 4,508 4,530 4,516 4,523 7 54,508 156,451
Nov-24 4,417 4,437 4,414 4,437 4,422 4,429 7 2,650 17,552
Jan-25 4,400 4,426 4,400 4,422 4,409 4,419 10 6,579 31,557
Mar-25 4,399 4,417 4,397 4,414 4,400 4,410 10 333 2,896
May-25 4,410 4,429 4,407 4,425 4,408 4,420 12 282 1,860
Corn
Turnover: 409,246 lots, or 10.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,442 2,445 2,435 2,442 2,437 2,440 3 35,562 128,524
Sep-24 2,458 2,469 2,458 2,465 2,461 2,463 2 322,290 736,987
Nov-24 2,408 2,424 2,408 2,419 2,413 2,418 5 26,488 222,282
Jan-25 2,394 2,401 2,391 2,398 2,393 2,396 3 18,517 158,656
Mar-25 2,400 2,406 2,397 2,404 2,403 2,402 -1 6,058 36,071
May-25 2,443 2,445 2,438 2,443 2,441 2,442 1 331 3,055
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,653,853 lots, or 55.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,193 3,202 3,168 3,192 3,193 3,188 -5 7,439 38,665
Aug-24 3,354 3,361 3,327 3,353 3,347 3,345 -2 22,794 96,294
Sep-24 3,380 3,388 3,353 3,379 3,370 3,370 0 1,172,398 1,796,389
Nov-24 3,395 3,410 3,375 3,394 3,393 3,390 -3 54,266 386,039
Dec-24 3,389 3,415 3,389 3,406 3,383 3,401 18 5,414 41,056
Jan-25 3,380 3,404 3,376 3,387 3,369 3,387 18 334,408 416,408
Mar-25 3,231 3,250 3,226 3,239 3,218 3,237 19 4,225 28,360
May-25 3,078 3,095 3,071 3,082 3,073 3,080 7 52,909 214,477
Palm Oil
Turnover: 685,724 lots, or 52.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,738 7,780 7,710 7,744 7,716 7,744 28 700 1,076
Aug-24 7,686 7,734 7,666 7,694 7,664 7,692 28 2,730 3,610
Sep-24 7,710 7,748 7,670 7,700 7,668 7,704 36 617,989 535,684
Oct-24 7,690 7,728 7,654 7,670 7,646 7,694 48 91 503
Nov-24 7,694 7,718 7,646 7,674 7,648 7,682 34 36 609
Dec-24 7,682 7,702 7,646 7,682 7,634 7,678 44 68 420
Jan-25 7,686 7,724 7,650 7,684 7,652 7,682 30 58,176 175,748
Feb-25 7,680 7,694 7,642 7,658 7,632 7,672 40 22 330
Mar-25 7,678 7,698 7,640 7,684 7,626 7,674 48 55 2,353
Apr-25 7,664 7,680 7,644 7,660 7,612 7,658 46 16 180
May-25 7,618 7,666 7,604 7,640 7,590 7,638 48 5,841 16,031
Jun-25 – – – 7,576 7,576 7,576 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 464,559 lots, or 36.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,792 7,842 7,748 7,766 7,774 7,788 14 3,408 3,913
Aug-24 7,880 7,888 7,816 7,842 7,838 7,852 14 4,073 28,619
Sep-24 7,914 7,942 7,866 7,890 7,886 7,904 18 402,379 667,207
Nov-24 7,946 7,958 7,888 7,912 7,906 7,926 20 375 5,755
Dec-24 8,014 8,016 7,950 7,984 7,976 7,982 6 51 1,530
Jan-25 7,982 7,982 7,910 7,936 7,926 7,944 18 49,384 186,695
Mar-25 7,762 7,772 7,724 7,744 7,716 7,752 36 71 3,526
May-25 7,678 7,688 7,620 7,646 7,624 7,656 32 4,818 30,788
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322