Grains Report 06/11/2024

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 10
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Jun 10, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 06, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/06/2024 05/30/2024 06/08/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 599 548 0 599 0
CORN 1,339,849 1,416,488 1,170,114 39,123,347 31,103,754
FLAXSEED 0 24 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 0 572 0
OATS 100 0 799 100 799
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 179,397 67,850 59,161 5,141,511 1,778,921
SOYBEANS 231,002 361,217 147,645 40,538,570 48,842,357
SUNFLOWER 384 384 0 6,869 2,608
WHEAT 352,202 427,276 247,958 296,616 318,450
Total 2,103,533 2,273,787 1,625,677 85,108,184 82,046,889
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

This Week Last Qeek Last Year Average
Cotton Planted 80 70 78 80
Cotton Squaring 14 9 10 12
Corn Planted 95 91 98 95
Corn Emerged 85 74 91 84
Soybeans Planted 87 78 95 84
Soybeans Emerged 70 55 83 66
Sorghum Planted 65 51 60 60
Rice Emerged 93 88 92 91
Peanuts Planted 90 82 91 91
Sunflowers Planted 18 10 21 19
Oats Emerged 92 87 91 90
Oats Headed 41 33 41 36
Winter Wheat Headed 89 83 87 86
Winter Wheat Harvested 12 6 7 6
Spring Wheat Planted 98 94 96 96
Spring Wheat Emerged 87 78 86 83
Barley Planted 98 94 96 97
Barley Emerged 83 74 83 86

Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 2 6 36 49 7
Cotton Last Week 3 5 31 54 7
Cotton Last Year 2 13 36 40 9

Corn This Week 1 4 21 58 16
Corn Last Week 1 3 21 60 15
Corn Last Year 2 6 31 51 18

Soybeans This Week 1 3 24 60 12
Soybeans Last Week
Soybeans Last Year 2 7 32 51 8

Winter Wheat This Week 6 13 34 39 8
Winter Wheat Last Week 6 12 33 41 8
Winter Wheat Last Year 12 19 31 32 6

Spring Wheat This Week 0 3 25 67 5
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 2 24 69 5
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 6 33 56 4

Sorghum This Week 2 5 37 49 7
Sorghum Last Week
Sorghum Last Year 2 6 35 49 8

Rice This Week 1 2 15 68 14
Rice Last Week 1 1 17 67 14
Rice Last Year 0 3 30 54 13

Peanuts This Week 1 4 29 62 4
Peanuts Last Week 1 3 33 58 5
Peanuts Last Year 1 5 25 63 6

Oats This Week 6 4 20 60 10
Oats Last Week 4 5 23 58 10
Oats Last Year 6 6 35 49 4

Barley This Week 0 1 23 74 2
Barley Last Week 0 5 21 70 4
Barley Last Year 1 5 36 56 2

Pastures and Ranges This Week 9 13 27 39 12
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 7 12 30 41 10
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 6 14 35 36 9

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Wednesday.
U.S. 2024 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA May USDA 2023
Corn Production 14,845 14,714-14,860 14,860 15,342
Corn Yield 180.8 179.0-181.0 181.0 177.3
Soybean Production 4,444 4,366-4,450 4,450 4,165
Soybean Yield 51.9 51.0-52.0 52.0 50.6
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2023-24
Average Range USDA May
Corn 1,984 1,817-2,031 2,022
Soybeans 348 319-371 340
Wheat 690 678-703 688
2024-25
Average Range USDA May
Corn 2,048 1,931-2,102 2,102
Soybeans 455 398-477 445
Wheat 782 741-837 766
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA May
Corn 311.5 309.0-313.5 313.1
Soybeans 110.8 107.0-112.5 111.8
Wheat 257.3 255.0-258.5 257.8
2024-25
Average Range USDA May
Corn 311.3 308.0-315.0 312.3
Soybeans 127.8 124.0-131.5 128.5
Wheat 252.0 248.9-255.0 253.6
****
2024-25 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA May USDA 2023-24
All Wheat 1,887 1,858-1,973 1,858 1,812
Winter Wheat 1,307 1,278-1,377 1,278 1,248
Hard Red Winter 724 705-788 705 601
Soft Red Winter 353 344-370 344 449
White Winter 228 219-235 229 198
****
2023-24
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 121.0 118.0-122.5 122.0
Soybeans 151.8 147.0-154.0 154.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 51.2 48.0-53.0 53.0
Soybeans 49.8 49.0-50.0 50.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets again yesterday as the US harvest expands and even as adverse world growing conditions are still around. There are more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. However, US producers are reporting strong yields so far and very good conditions. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 606, 595, and 569 July, with resistance at 630, 640, and 650 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 600, 623, and 598 July, with resistance at 660, 675, and 690 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 669, 659, and 648 July, and resistance is at 700, 710, and 725 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower in July yesterday as the contract continues to liquidate longs and shorts in a violent way. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop. Big storms have brought significant rains to crops in Texas, but the weather is better now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1763, 1741, and 1725 July and resistance is at 1798, 1825, and 1835 July

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday on news that Brazil has proposed new export taxes on Agricultural goods of 20%. Congress must approve the measure, but farmers there are already reported to be halting sales to see what happens next. The US Midwest is still seeing good growing conditions. The market anticipated that crop condition ratings would be very high in the USDA reports last week and will anticipate high crop ratings this week. Oats were lower on good growing conditions found in the northern US and into Canada. The weather in the Midwest has been very wet but it is drier now. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 438, 436, and 434 July, and resistance is at 454, 461, and 467 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 330, 323, and 317 July, and resistance is at 350, 368, and 374 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed mostly higher yesterday despite good growing conditions in the US against weaker demand ideas and on reports of increased taxes for Brazil farmers. The government there has proposed a new tax on farm production and exports of up to 20%. Congress must approve the measure, but reports indicate that Brazil farmers are pulling back from sales to see what happens next. There were wire reports that China prices are weakening amid veery strong imports from Brazil. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but might have to cut back on demand if the domestic market does not improve. China said that it has increased exports of Soybean Meal due to the weaker internal demand. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the biofuels market.
Overnight News: Chna bought 104,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1166, 1157, and 1146 July, and resistance is at 1210, 1224, and 1236 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 350.00 and 324.00 July. Support is at 350.00, 345.00, and 342.00 July, and resistance is at 373.00, 376.00, and 381.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4330 and 4130 July. Support is at 4310, 4270, and 4250 July, with resistance at 4530, 4690, and 4780 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was also mostly higher despite reports of generally good conditions in Canada as the Canadian Dollar rallied.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 614.00, 603.00, and 597.00 July, with resistance at 642.00, 645.00, and 660.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3850, 3780, and 3600 August, with resistance at 4080, 4140, and 4300 July.

DJ Malaysia’s May Palm Oil Exports 1.38M Tons; Up 12%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 12% on month at 1.38 million metric tons in May, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the May crop data and revised numbers for April, issued by the MPOB:
May April Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,704,455 1,501,995 Up 13.48%
Palm Oil Exports 1,378,443 1,234,502 Up 11.66%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 87,827 85,901 Up 2.24%
Palm Oil Imports 20,761 34,762 Dn 40.28%
Closing Stocks 1,753,544 1,744,860 Up 0.5%
Crude Palm Oil 979,352 964,049 Up 1.59%
Processed Palm Oil 774,192 780,811 Dn 0.85%

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 59 July 115 July
40 July
66 July

July 60 July 115 July 40 July 67 July

August 56 Sep 110 Sep 30 Sep 70 Aug

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 877.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 877.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 882.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 882.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 880.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 877.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 830.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 3,980.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 291.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7175)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 64,479 lots, or 2.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,658 4,660 4,641 4,645 4,651 4,647 -4 41,702 78,130
Sep-24 4,603 4,607 4,590 4,595 4,600 4,596 -4 19,416 67,885
Nov-24 4,532 4,535 4,516 4,516 4,529 4,521 -8 1,045 12,225
Jan-25 4,528 4,528 4,506 4,507 4,520 4,515 -5 2,093 19,767
Mar-25 4,521 4,522 4,497 4,497 4,513 4,504 -9 106 1,714
May-25 4,536 4,546 4,506 4,512 4,529 4,516 -13 117 772
Corn
Turnover: 477,900 lots, or 11.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,472 2,478 2,456 2,457 2,458 2,463 5 98,115 255,010
Sep-24 2,490 2,504 2,481 2,485 2,483 2,489 6 328,716 643,931
Nov-24 2,431 2,450 2,431 2,433 2,432 2,437 5 27,209 234,651
Jan-25 2,412 2,423 2,408 2,411 2,411 2,413 2 17,092 144,063
Mar-25 2,419 2,430 2,413 2,415 2,417 2,418 1 6,534 39,102
May-25 2,451 2,462 2,449 2,449 2,453 2,454 1 234 1,873
Soymeal
Turnover: 904,889 lots, or 31.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,383 3,398 3,350 3,353 3,390 3,369 -21 19,770 76,427
Aug-24 3,487 3,505 3,458 3,464 3,497 3,475 -22 9,530 82,311
Sep-24 3,498 3,520 3,472 3,477 3,510 3,489 -21 750,496 1,989,722
Nov-24 3,509 3,523 3,482 3,489 3,516 3,498 -18 16,187 393,549
Dec-24 3,465 3,473 3,435 3,439 3,468 3,450 -18 3,655 40,340
Jan-25 3,425 3,439 3,408 3,412 3,432 3,423 -9 85,832 449,283
Mar-25 3,260 3,273 3,249 3,253 3,277 3,258 -19 1,572 27,630
May-25 3,112 3,120 3,108 3,110 3,119 3,112 -7 17,847 160,455
Palm Oil
Turnover: 749,233 lots, or 57.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-24 7,750 7,750 7,322 7,700 7,830 7,594 -236 25 524
Jul-24 7,758 7,790 7,572 7,600 7,782 7,692 -90 6,518 5,300
Aug-24 7,722 7,764 7,550 7,572 7,776 7,670 -106 2,554 2,665
Sep-24 7,730 7,796 7,572 7,596 7,806 7,680 -126 675,042 535,284
Oct-24 7,716 7,778 7,592 7,616 7,788 7,702 -86 301 466
Nov-24 7,704 7,772 7,586 7,604 7,788 7,698 -90 148 622
Dec-24 7,730 7,780 7,594 7,606 7,796 7,690 -106 145 396
Jan-25 7,780 7,814 7,592 7,618 7,804 7,710 -94 61,794 141,430
Feb-25 7,718 7,764 7,604 7,614 7,798 7,704 -94 63 157
Mar-25 7,728 7,760 7,584 7,606 7,772 7,646 -126 100 1,612
Apr-25 7,700 7,744 7,592 7,608 7,760 7,630 -130 29 187
May-25 7,682 7,716 7,550 7,568 7,706 7,598 -108 2,514 9,279
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 479,776 lots, or 38.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,856 7,904 7,744 7,744 7,886 7,824 -62 5,752 9,960
Aug-24 7,952 7,974 7,806 7,806 7,946 7,882 -64 1,928 26,350
Sep-24 7,978 8,028 7,856 7,858 7,994 7,940 -54 420,663 691,249
Nov-24 7,978 8,034 7,878 7,882 8,002 7,970 -32 588 5,736
Dec-24 8,036 8,084 7,934 7,950 8,054 8,012 -42 63 1,528
Jan-25 8,016 8,070 7,904 7,908 8,036 7,984 -52 45,672 183,765
Mar-25 7,804 7,818 7,688 7,702 7,820 7,762 -58 143 3,432
May-25 7,722 7,760 7,636 7,642 7,742 7,674 -68 4,967 19,705
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322