About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower yesterday on follow through selling. USDA said that 60% of the US crop was rated good to excellent on Tuesday afternoon. The weekly export sales report showed much improved sales last week. Wire reports indicate that speculators were covering short positions. Big storms are reported in Texas that could damage crops. There are also some big problems with too much rain in the Delta and Southeast in recent days. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and demand for Cotton in world markets has started to increase.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 75.90, 73.70, and 72.00 July, with resistance of 83.80, 84.40 and 86.20 July.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 31
For the week ended May 23, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat cotton began Aug 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 222.6 78.1 12227.3 13030.6 3288.4 1727.0
pima cotton 5.4 0.2 323.7 311.1 53.6 5.1

General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower to limit down yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to profit taking, but the market remains well supported longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 456.00, 441.00, and 438.00 July, with resistance at 477.00, 495.00, and 504.00 July.

DJ Retail Prices for OJ Find New High — Market Talk
0933 ET – Retail prices for orange juice found a new record-high in May, according to the latest Nielsen data. The firm says that OJ prices have risen to $9.69 a gallon. That’s up 9% from this time last year. Earlier this week, the FCOJ contract on the ICE found a new record high of $4.87 a pound, reflecting concerns about an active hurricane season and the USDA cutting its outlook for Florida orange production as greening disease continues to impact those crops. FCOJ has since fallen back down, with the most-active contract down to $4.37 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

General Comments: New York was a little higher and London closed higher yesterday on new commercial and speculative trading on ideas of reduced offers of Robusta and on forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest. Chart tends turned up with the price action. Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally. There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, buts in small amounts, Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. Exports from Brazil have remained strong.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 240.61 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 240.00 July. Support is at 222.00, 212.00, and 208.00 July, and resistance is at 236.00, 238.00 and 241.00 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 4300. Support is at 3990, 3890, and 3740 July, with resistance at 4390, 4480, and 4540 July.

General Comments: Both markets closed lower again yesterday and the charts show that both markets have fallen back into a trading range. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries. Offers from Brazil are still active.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1740 July and resistance is at 1890, 1920, and 1950 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 536.00, 538.00, and 522.00 August, with resistance at 555.00, 566.00, and 571.00 August.

General Comments: Both markets were mixed yesterday, with New York a little higher and London lower, and trends are up for the short term on what appeared to be some speculative short covering. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed Support is at 7870, 7370, and 6770 July, with resistance at 9550, 9600, and 10210 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6610, 6160, and 5660 July, with resistance at 7930, 8190, and 8250 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322