
Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 05/30/2024
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets as adverse world growing conditions appear to be part of the price now. Russian analytical services cut production estimates over the weekend to between 80 and 82 million tons, from over 85 million previously. There were no more reports of frosts and freezing temperatures in Russian growing areas, but rain ia also now in the forecasts. It has also been very dry there. In addition, Ukraine sent drones to several Russian ports, including grains ports, to disrupt the export pace and cost Russia money. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 682, 676, and 670 July, with resistance at 706, 715, and 722 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 685, 660, and 640 July, with resistance at 734, 740, and 746 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 743, 721, and 715 July, and resistance is at 768, 770, and 789 July.
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday on speculative selling tied to weaker demand ideas. Most of the weakness was in the front months due to many buyers holding off making purchases until the cheaper new crop Rice becomes available in a few months. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop. Big storms continue to bring significant and potentially damaging rains to crops in Texas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1750, 1725, and 1674 July and resistance is at 1825, 1843, and 1859 July.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on forecasts for improved planting weather for the Midwest and on reports of increased competition for export sales from South America. Oats were higher. The weather in the Midwest has been very wet and more rain is coming to cause planting delays but to allow for rapid development of planted crops. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather, but sellers in both countries are offering. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 450, 444, and 438 July, and resistance is at 467, 475, and 483 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 362, 357, and 350 July, and resistance is at 390, 403, and 409 July.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower yesterday on reports of increased offers from South America. Soybean Oil closed a little higher. The weekly export sales report showed less than expected demand for US Soybeans. There were wire reports that China had bought two to four cargos of US Soybeans in recent days. Brazil basis levels are very strong and US products now compare favorably in price to those from South America. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling in US growing areas, especially the eastern sections of the Midwest. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1210, 1204, and 1197 July, and resistance is at 1256, 1260, and 1266 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 365.00, 361.00, and 350.00 July, and resistance is at 391.00, 394.00, and 396.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4470, 4470, and 4420 July, with resistance at 4690, 4780, and 4880 July.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on Chicago Soybean Oil price action and despite ideas of increasing production. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are turning mixed on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was also lower yesterday on reports of generally good conditions in Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 655.00, 646.00, and 639.00 July, with resistance at 675.00, 678.00, and 684.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3870, 3820, and 3760 August, with resistance at 3990, 4040, and 4210 July.
Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average above normal.
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May
June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July
July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 882.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 885.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 885.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 887.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 890.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 890.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 887.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 827.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 4,030.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 290.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.702)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 30
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 124,208 lots, or 5.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,670 4,692 4,652 4,653 4,657 4,672 15 92,996 90,116
Sep-24 4,630 4,646 4,615 4,618 4,625 4,630 5 26,989 51,926
Nov-24 4,580 4,581 4,556 4,561 4,571 4,570 -1 785 7,872
Jan-25 4,571 4,572 4,546 4,553 4,560 4,559 -1 2,989 14,487
Mar-25 4,561 4,565 4,540 4,548 4,553 4,551 -2 256 1,247
May-25 4,568 4,573 4,545 4,545 4,566 4,555 -11 193 532
Corn
Turnover: 636,504 lots, or 15.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,437 2,445 2,422 2,428 2,438 2,431 -7 366,706 462,395
Sep-24 2,461 2,473 2,451 2,453 2,465 2,458 -7 217,716 537,234
Nov-24 2,416 2,426 2,409 2,414 2,417 2,415 -2 28,499 232,385
Jan-25 2,403 2,414 2,398 2,400 2,407 2,403 -4 18,799 160,328
Mar-25 2,415 2,421 2,407 2,408 2,415 2,411 -4 4,623 36,124
May-25 2,451 2,461 2,450 2,452 2,457 2,452 -5 161 1,199
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,601,656 lots, or 55.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,390 3,395 3,354 3,369 3,395 3,376 -19 30,188 94,686
Aug-24 3,489 3,489 3,448 3,465 3,487 3,469 -18 8,065 86,358
Sep-24 3,497 3,505 3,462 3,481 3,503 3,486 -17 1,345,371 2,030,757
Nov-24 3,521 3,530 3,486 3,504 3,529 3,509 -20 31,677 424,760
Dec-24 3,488 3,488 3,457 3,470 3,493 3,473 -20 1,314 40,517
Jan-25 3,449 3,450 3,421 3,433 3,444 3,436 -8 155,485 398,194
Mar-25 3,303 3,306 3,284 3,293 3,311 3,294 -17 3,204 28,478
May-25 3,153 3,160 3,139 3,146 3,154 3,148 -6 26,352 109,117
Palm Oil
Turnover: 799,587 lots, or 62.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-24 7,864 7,886 7,710 7,738 7,868 7,852 -16 853 705
Jul-24 7,848 7,872 7,698 7,708 7,832 7,772 -60 9,608 8,190
Aug-24 7,838 7,842 7,690 7,704 7,824 7,776 -48 863 1,500
Sep-24 7,852 7,876 7,726 7,742 7,826 7,808 -18 721,436 595,796
Oct-24 7,842 7,856 7,724 7,728 7,822 7,812 -10 109 527
Nov-24 7,848 7,852 7,740 7,746 7,820 7,810 -10 33 630
Dec-24 7,850 7,872 7,750 7,752 7,824 7,806 -18 87 390
Jan-25 7,872 7,898 7,766 7,782 7,842 7,830 -12 65,227 113,890
Feb-25 7,856 7,868 7,764 7,784 7,828 7,826 -2 35 132
Mar-25 7,828 7,878 7,774 7,796 7,848 7,828 -20 97 1,365
Apr-25 7,848 7,862 7,796 7,796 7,846 7,826 -20 15 167
May-25 7,774 7,824 7,726 7,740 7,790 7,782 -8 1,224 978
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 704,094 lots, or 57.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 8,016 8,048 7,904 7,908 7,998 7,972 -26 6,615 14,801
Aug-24 8,106 8,132 7,976 7,980 8,068 8,060 -8 648 27,204
Sep-24 8,150 8,188 8,024 8,030 8,114 8,114 0 625,071 783,786
Nov-24 8,156 8,186 8,044 8,046 8,120 8,124 4 959 6,725
Dec-24 8,202 8,246 8,114 8,114 8,180 8,178 -2 178 1,579
Jan-25 8,192 8,238 8,090 8,096 8,168 8,166 -2 68,406 178,758
Mar-25 7,994 8,030 7,914 7,924 7,982 7,986 4 264 3,338
May-25 7,910 7,936 7,800 7,810 7,892 7,884 -8 1,953 5,326
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.