About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

General Comments:  Cotton was higher yesterday on a weaker US Dollar that created new demand ideas.  Trends turned up on the charts on speculative buying.  The weekly export sales report showed much improved sales last week.  Wire reports indicate that speculators were covering short positions.  There are also some big problems with too much rain in the Delta and Southeast in recent days.  Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.  The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around.   However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and demand for Cotton in world markets has started to increase.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives.  Support is at 80.20, 78.50, and 75.90 July, with resistance of 83.80, 84.40 and 86.20 July.
      This Week   Last Qeek   Last Year   Average
Cotton Planted    59    44    56    57
Cotton Squaring   4           3     5
      Very Poor   Poor  Fair  Good  Excellent
Cotton This Week  1     4     35    52    8
Cotton Last Week
Cotton Last Year  1     12    39    41    7
General Comments:  FCOJ closed sharply higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying based on forecasts for tight supplies.  The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.  The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives.  Support is at 469.00, 456.00, and 441.00 July, with resistance at 498.00, 504.00, and 510.00 July.
General Comments:  New York and London closed sharply higher yesterday on new commercial and speculative buying on ideas of reduced offers of Robusta and on forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam.  Chart tends turned up with the price action.  Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally.  There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, buts in small amounts, Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year.  Exports from Brazil have remained strong.  The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is continuing.
Overnight News:  The ICO daily average price is now 227.41 ct/lb.  Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get mostly dry conditions.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 240.00 July.  Support is at 222.00, 212.00, and 208.00 July, and resistance is at 235.00, 238.00 and 241.00 July.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 4300.  Support is at 3990, 3890, and 3740 July, with resistance at 4240, 4360, and 4480 July.
General Comments:  Both markets closed higher yesterday and the charts indicate that futures could move higher out of a trading range this week.  There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer.  Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil.  There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries.  Offers from Brazil are still active.  Ukraine is stopping offers to the EU as the country has already shipped its quota. France, the European Union’s largest sugar maker, produced 4.2 million metric tons of white sugar in the 2023/24 season, up 5.8% from the previous season but 1% below the average.
Overnight News:  Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north.  Temperatures should average above normal.  India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1850, 1800, and 1770 July and resistance is at 1890, 1920, and 1950 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 546.00, 536.00, and 528.00 August, with resistance at 555.00, 566.00, and 571.00 August.
General Comments:  Both markets were higher again yesterday and trends are turning up for the short term on what appeared to be some speculative short covering.  Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures.  Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions.  The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing.  Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue.  Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest.  Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.  Main crop cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast ports are now 1.437 million metric tons since the start of the season on Oct. 1, down 29% from the same period last season.
Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed    Support is at 7870, 7370, and 6770 July, with resistance at 9090, 9490, and 9690 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 6610, 6160, and 5660 July, with resistance at 7280, 7930, and 8190 July.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322