AgMaster Report 05/29/2024

JULY WHT

Black Sea weather woes continue to plague the July Wheat – so far driving it up $1.70 (5.50-7.20)! Last night, the mkt opened 20 higher but couldn’t hold the gains – finishing only 3 cents higher! Maybe, an indication the weather mkt is losing some steam! When the mkt can no longer advance off dry, frosty forecasts from South Russia, a temporary top will be confirmed! But still supplies have been diminished & the US Southwest Plains continue to have issues! And Russia’s export dominance may be coming to an end!

 

JULY BEANS

Since May 1, July Beans have rallied an impressive $1.00 (1155-1255)! But with no export business yet from China this season, the upside is limited for now! Domestic demand however has been strong! Beans are 68% in (avg -63)! Higher energies & a lower US Dollar have supported! Now, that the crop is nearly planted, weekly crop condition reports will be paramount! And the mkt is $2.00 cheaper than last summer – which could pave the way for improved exports for June-Sept!

 

JULY CORN

July Corn is caught in the middle being pushed up by a surging July Wht & pulled down by a slumping July Beans! However, on its own, it has a very positive fundamental picture with exports running 35% over 2023! And it’s $1.70 cheaper than a year ago! Both Brazilian & Ukranian corn estimates have been lowered! Corn is 83% planted (avg – 82) with demand surging, there is “no margin for error” for the 2024 US Crop!

  

JUNE CAT

June Cat was the major beneficiary of Memorial Day Weekend beef demand last week driving it nearly to its contract highs! But now that’s over & bird flu demand fears still linger! The mkt may well consolidate for a while! The Cattle-on-Feed Report last Friday was neutral with placements at 95% – as expected! And the net long of managed money traders is about half of what it was last Fall! The mkt will need new upside fuel to challenge the March contract highs!

 

JUNE HOGS

The monthly Cold Storage Report issued last Friday at 2pm laid some more negative news on the Hog Mkt that doesn’t need any more indeed! Frozen pork in cold storage increased to 501 million pounds from 463 mp last month! The mkt also broke thru two levels that could have supported – the 200 day moving average & the 61% retracement on the plus side, the net fund longs have decreased to half of what they were! Finally, the disparity between pork & beef prices has widened appreciably in the past month – which should favor an increase in pork demand in the supermarket!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337