About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Wheat:  Wheat was higher in all three markets on adverse world growing conditions.  There were no more reports of frosts and freezing temperatures in Russian growing areas.  It has also been very dry there.  In addition, Ukraine sent drones to several Russian ports, including grains ports, to disrupt the export pace and cost Russia money.  The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe.  Big world supplies and low world prices are still around.  Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period.  Black Sea offers are still plentiful.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures


Corn:  Corn and Oats closed higher last week with Corn higher on the back of strong weekly export sales released Thursday.  The weather in the Midwest has been very wet and more rain is coming to cause planting delays but to allow for rapid development of planted crops.  The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather.  Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is a driving force.  Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong.  Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately.  There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures



Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher last week on reports of reduced offers and higher basis levels from South America.  Soybean Oil closed a little lower.  The weekly export sales report showed less than expected demand for US Soybeans.  There were wire reports that China had bought two to four cargos of US Soybeans in recent days.  Brazil basis levels are very strong and US products now compare favorably in price to those from South America.  Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling in US growing areas, especially the eastern sections of the Midwest.  Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil.  Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures


Rice:  Rice closed lower last week on speculative selling tied to weaker demand ideas.  The futures market overall remained in a short term trading range but at the low end of the range.  Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US.  The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston.  Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.  These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures


Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil was higher last week on Chicago Soybean Oil price action and despite ideas of increasing production.  There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are turning mixed on the daily and weekly charts.  Canola was also lower last week on reports of generally good conditions in Canada.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures


Cotton:  Cotton was higher last week and trends turned up on the charts on speculative buying tied to ideas of stronger export demand.  The weekly export sales report showed much improved sales.  Wire reports indicate that speculators were covering short positions.  There are also some big problems with too much rain in the Delta and Southeast in recent days.  Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.  The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around.   However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and demand for Cotton in world markets has started to increase.

Weekly US Cotton Futures


Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  FCOJ closed higher last week on what appeared to be speculative buying based on forecasts for tight supplies.  USDA said that Florida production was estimated at 17,8 million boxes, down 5% from the last estimate but still 13% above the production of last year.  The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.  The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.

Weekly FCOJ Futures


Coffee:  New York and London closed higher on Friday and higher for the week on new speculative buying on ideas of reduced offers of Robusta and on forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam.  Chart tends turned up with the price action.  Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally.  There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, buts in small amounts, Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year.  Exports from Brazil have remained strong.  The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is continuing.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures


Sugar:  Both markets closed a little higher last week and New York held to a trading range.  Trends remain down on the daily charts in both markets and on the weekly charts.  There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer.  Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil.  There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries.  Offers from Brazil are still active.  Ukraine is stopping offers to the EU as the country has already shipped its quota.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures


Cocoa:  Both markets were higher last week in recovery trading on what appeared to be some speculative short covering.  Trends are turning up on the daily charts.  Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures.  Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions.  The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing.  Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue.  Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest.  Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.  Main crop cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast ports are now 1.437 million metric tons since the start of the season on Oct. 1, down 29% from the same period last season.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322