Softs Report 05/28/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week and trends turned up on the charts on speculative buying tied to ideas of stronger export demand. The weekly export sales report showed much improved sales yesterday. Wire reports indicate that speculators were covering short positions. There are also some big problems with too much rain in the Delta and Southeast in recent days. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and demand for Cotton in world markets has started to increase.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8090 and 8240 July. Support is at 80.20, 78.50, and 75.90 July, with resistance of 82.50, 82.90 and 83.80 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 274,272
: Positions :
: 31,551 59,771 72,318 74,463 110,432 82,703 17,760 261,035 260,281: 13,238 13,992
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 (Change in open interest: 5,541) :
: -1,343 6,150 641 5,165 -1,306 1,802 2,043 6,266 7,528: -725 -1,987
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.5 21.8 26.4 27.1 40.3 30.2 6.5 95.2 94.9: 4.8 5.1
: Total Traders: 323 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 96 101 65 66 48 26 263 238:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week on what appeared to be speculative buying based on forecasts for tight supplies. USDA said that Florida production was estimated at 17,8 million boxes, down 5% from the last estimate but still 13% above the production of last year. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 421.00 July. Support is at 456.00, 441.00, and 438.00 July, with resistance at 480.00, 486.00, and 492.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,545 :
: Positions :
: 1,505 8,706 932 0 210 3,634 392 108 1,824 415 3,156 :
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 :
: -75 677 216 0 0 475 -175 -140 -185 -127 321 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.3 59.9 6.4 0.0 1.4 25.0 2.7 0.7 12.5 2.9 21.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 56 :
: 7 7 5 0 . 21 . . 13 5 10 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday and higher for the week on new speculative buying on ideas of reduced offers of Robusta and on forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam. Chart tends turned up with the price action. Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally. There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, buts in small amounts, Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. Exports from Brazil have remained strong. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is continuing.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 216.75 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 223.00 and 240.00 July. Support is at 212.00, 208.00, and 204.00 July, and resistance is at 223.00, 226.00 and 229.00 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 3380 and 3740. Support is at 3740, 3540, and 3430 July, with resistance at 4000, 4130, and 4240 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 276,219
: Positions :
: 55,670 14,293 88,216 60,350 152,755 62,168 14,021 266,404 269,284: 9,816 6,935
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 (Change in open interest: -1,398) :
: 1,135 -238 -2,034 -895 1,208 104 -199 -1,691 -1,262: 293 -136
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.2 5.2 31.9 21.8 55.3 22.5 5.1 96.4 97.5: 3.6 2.5
: Total Traders: 379 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 119 70 114 102 114 51 21 327 275:
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SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed a little higher last week and New York held to a trading range. Trends remain down on the daily charts in both markets and on the weekly charts in London. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries. Offers from Brazil are still active. Ukraine is stopping offers to the EU as the country has already shipped its quota.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1730 July. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 July and resistance is at 1860, 1890, and 1920 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 528.00 August. Support is at 526.00, 520.00, and 514.00 August, with resistance at 555.00, 566.00, and 571.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,016,817
: Positions :
: 83,243 152,733 226,140 394,083 476,992 249,476 81,767 952,942 937,632: 63,875 79,185
: :
: 188 11,405 -3,254 24,841 10,212 3,243 5,612 25,018 23,975: 64 1,107
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.2 15.0 22.2 38.8 46.9 24.5 8.0 93.7 92.2: 6.3 7.8
: Total Traders: 253 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 67 80 74 69 42 25 215 201:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were higher last week in recovery trading on what appeared to be some speculative short covering. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa. Main crop cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast ports are now 1.437 million metric tons since the start of the season on Oct. 1, down 29% from the same period last season.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 8710 and 9880 July Support is at 7370, 6770, and 5910 July, with resistance at 8440, 9090, and 9490 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6150, 4790, and 4700 July, with resistance at 7000, 7280, and 7930 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 246,433
: Positions :
: 21,094 12,426 122,193 63,554 93,194 27,752 12,464 234,593 240,277: 11,840 6,156
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 (Change in open interest: -6,838) :
: -82 -1,185 -4,334 -2,517 -731 -458 -944 -7,391 -7,193: 553 356
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.6 5.0 49.6 25.8 37.8 11.3 5.1 95.2 97.5: 4.8 2.5
: Total Traders: 165 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 39 65 39 33 28 15 154 121:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322