Grains Report 05/23/2024

DJ Global Grain Output Forecast Lowered Slightly on Trimmed Barley, Sorghum Prospects
By Joe Hoppe
The forecast for global grain production was trimmed for the year on lower barley and sorghum output expectations, the International Grains Council said in a report on Thursday.
The IGC now expects global grain output at 2.297 billion metric tons in 2023-24, down from April’s estimate of 2.301 billion tons. This remains a sharp rise on the prior-year’s estimated harvest of 2.266 billion tons, and would still be the highest on record, driven by a much larger than expected corn harvest.
For corn, now it expects output of 1.225 billion tons in 2023-24, broadly flat on last month’s forecast. This is a sharp rise from the prior-year harvest of 1.163 billion tons, when crop growth was hit by European droughts.
Wheat output is expected at 790 million tons, while rice is expected at 514 million tons. Soybean output is expected to be a record 391 million tons, reflecting a heavy crop in Argentina more than offsetting smaller harvests in the U.S and Brazil.
For 2024-25, production is expected to increase for a second successive season to 2.312 billion tons, down from expectations last month of 2.322 billion tons.
The projection cut is due to a fall in expectations for corn harvests in parts of the southern hemisphere, and wheat in the U.S., Ukraine and Russia, the grains body said.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 23
For the week ended May 16, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 17.9 224.9 18934.0 18841.4 1215.6 3488.7
hrw -24.3 99.6 3601.0 5123.2 249.8 761.1
srw 11.0 62.2 4345.3 2907.6 225.1 564.0
hrs 25.2 61.5 6458.3 5748.4 442.4 1195.4
white 6.0 24.0 3999.0 4610.0 271.5 900.8
durum 0.0 -22.5 530.5 452.2 26.9 67.5
corn 911.2 305.0 49277.3 37979.4 12432.5 2610.4
soybeans 279.4 65.5 42881.6 50839.9 3500.3 955.9
soymeal 145.3 51.4 11809.0 10564.3 2833.8 449.4
soyoil -1.0 4.0 131.1 124.8 50.5 17.1
upland cotton 202.9 47.9 12004.7 12762.9 3238.0 1648.9
pima cotton 9.9 0.7 318.3 307.5 54.5 4.9
sorghum 4.4 0.0 5161.3 1645.8 407.2 0.0
barley 0.0 0.1 11.8 12.0 5.7 14.1
rice 33.1 0.0 3090.0 1860.7 429.0 51.5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets after trading higher early in the session as the Illinois crop tour found the chance for very big yields. There were no more reports of frosts and freezing temperatures in Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. In addition, Ukraine sent drones to several Russian ports, including grains ports, to disrupt the export pace and cost Russia money. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 676, 647, and 632 July, with resistance at 706, 712, and 717 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 685, 660, and 640 July, with resistance at 710, 719, and 722 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 729, 710, and 700 July, and resistance is at 752, 758, and 764 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday in consolidation trading. The futures market overall remained in a short term trading range but at the low end of the range. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1854, 1827, and 1785 July and resistance is at 1918, 1948, and 1954 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little higher yesterday in line with the rally in Soybeans. The weather in the Midwest has been very wet and more rains are coming to cause planting delays but to allow for rapid development of planted crops. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is the driving force. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 450, 444, and 440 July, and resistance is at 467, 475, and 483 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 362, 357, and 350 July, and resistance is at 383, 390, and 403 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher yesterday on ideas of improving demand for US Soybeans. There were wire reports that China had bought two to four cargos of US Soybeans in recent days. Brazil basis levels are very strong and US products now compare favorably in price to those from South America. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling in US growing areas, especially the eastern sections of the Midwest. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1231, 1220, and 1210 July, and resistance is at 1250, 1256, and 1260 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 365.00, 361.00, and 350.00 July, and resistance is at 388.00, 390.00, and 396.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4540, 4470, and 4420 July, with resistance at 4690, 4780, and 4880 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on Chicago price action.. There is also talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are turning mixed on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 688.00 and 723.00 July. Support is at 655.00, 646.00, and 639.00 July, with resistance at 672.00, 678.00, and 684.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3870, 3820, and 3760 August, with resistance at 3990, 4040, and 4210 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May

June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July

July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 867.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 867.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 872.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 872.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 880.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 887.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 822.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 3,950.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 289.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.712)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 122,337 lots, or 5.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,674 4,691 4,664 4,677 4,658 4,678 20 91,185 106,773
Sep-24 4,660 4,679 4,652 4,658 4,650 4,663 13 25,308 45,918
Nov-24 4,619 4,630 4,611 4,611 4,609 4,621 12 1,486 6,714
Jan-25 4,600 4,623 4,600 4,607 4,604 4,612 8 4,002 10,876
Mar-25 4,601 4,616 4,596 4,600 4,598 4,606 8 324 845
May-25 4,618 4,622 4,604 4,611 4,608 4,613 5 32 75
Corn
Turnover: 632,486 lots, or 15.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,477 2,483 2,466 2,473 2,465 2,474 9 394,035 597,839
Sep-24 2,497 2,504 2,485 2,489 2,489 2,493 4 159,126 494,660
Nov-24 2,449 2,457 2,437 2,440 2,442 2,446 4 30,938 227,392
Jan-25 2,440 2,444 2,425 2,430 2,431 2,434 3 40,460 149,826
Mar-25 2,445 2,449 2,432 2,435 2,432 2,439 7 7,500 27,276
May-25 2,473 2,483 2,469 2,470 2,468 2,473 5 427 605
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,107,350 lots, or 75.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,510 3,529 3,484 3,517 3,498 3,510 12 51,092 110,516
Aug-24 3,607 3,627 3,581 3,617 3,590 3,607 17 15,132 68,531
Sep-24 3,614 3,633 3,585 3,622 3,594 3,613 19 1,813,993 2,280,409
Nov-24 3,628 3,647 3,601 3,636 3,609 3,628 19 38,838 395,954
Dec-24 3,597 3,618 3,575 3,610 3,581 3,596 15 3,039 41,059
Jan-25 3,542 3,562 3,518 3,551 3,523 3,540 17 154,180 337,400
Mar-25 3,352 3,366 3,336 3,360 3,339 3,352 13 5,911 30,150
May-25 3,193 3,207 3,190 3,205 3,189 3,198 9 25,165 66,242
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,003,376 lots, or 76.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-24 7,726 7,766 7,592 7,642 7,726 7,684 -42 1,152 1,220
Jul-24 7,646 7,704 7,518 7,596 7,646 7,616 -30 8,890 8,360
Aug-24 7,620 7,676 7,500 7,582 7,632 7,590 -42 466 1,121
Sep-24 7,650 7,698 7,502 7,598 7,640 7,610 -30 934,727 559,391
Oct-24 7,656 7,702 7,508 7,594 7,640 7,620 -20 442 529
Nov-24 7,664 7,692 7,528 7,608 7,644 7,622 -22 101 653
Dec-24 7,662 7,712 7,540 7,610 7,640 7,634 -6 60 380
Jan-25 7,684 7,724 7,544 7,634 7,654 7,640 -14 56,983 105,071
Feb-25 7,714 7,714 7,552 7,610 7,652 7,632 -20 29 133
Mar-25 7,706 7,734 7,576 7,650 7,668 7,644 -24 201 1,423
Apr-25 7,724 7,726 7,622 7,662 7,682 7,672 -10 21 163
May-25 7,676 7,710 7,552 7,640 7,654 7,628 -26 304 432
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 778,857 lots, or 62.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,968 8,014 7,856 7,918 7,942 7,942 0 6,395 16,172
Aug-24 8,008 8,056 7,902 7,964 7,984 7,990 6 1,896 22,222
Sep-24 8,024 8,098 7,942 8,008 8,014 8,026 12 683,914 772,471
Nov-24 8,072 8,108 7,964 8,010 8,016 8,028 12 3,069 7,377
Dec-24 8,144 8,170 8,026 8,080 8,108 8,096 -12 143 1,782
Jan-25 8,116 8,176 8,014 8,086 8,092 8,104 12 79,921 160,388
Mar-25 7,946 8,006 7,878 7,930 7,952 7,948 -4 436 3,357
May-25 7,864 7,892 7,770 7,818 7,842 7,838 -4 3,083 3,885
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322