Grains Report 05/22/2024

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024
jslsa@comcast.net

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets in Turnaround Tuesday trading as more reports of frosts and freezing temperatures in Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. In addition, Ukraine sent drones to several Russian ports, including grains ports, to disrupt the export pace and cost Russia money. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed improved sales. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 676, 647, and 632 July, with resistance at 706, 712, and 718 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 685, 660, and 640 July, with resistance at 710, 716, and 722 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 747 July. Support is at 729, 710, and 700 July, and resistance is at 758, 764, and 768 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher yesterday in new crop months, but lower in July. The futures market overall remained in a short term trading range for the new crop months but brke lower in the July. The USDA export sales report indicated moderate sales. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Some more big storms are coming to this region in the next few days. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1854, 1827, and 1785 July and resistance is at 1918, 1948, and 1954 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 22
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 24.29 14.73 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 23.80 15.98 0.00
Brokens 14.69 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 48.82/19.56 6.76
Medium Grain/Short Grain 61.56/9.04 7.04

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday in line with the selloffs on Soybeans and Wheat. The weather in the Midwest has been very wet and more rains are coming to cause planting delays but to allow for rapid development of planted crops. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is the driving force. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 450, 444, and 440 July, and resistance is at 467, 475, and 483 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 357, 350, and 343 July, and resistance is at 383, 390, and 403 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday on ideas of improving demand for US Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are very strong and US products now compare favorably in price to those from South America. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling in US growing areas, especially the eastern sections of the Midwest. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1204, 1192, and 1187 July, and resistance is at 1250, 1256, and 1260 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 350.00 July, and resistance is at 388.00, 390.00, and 396.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4230, 4200, and 4140 July, with resistance at 4690, 4780, and 4880 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday on Chicago price action and despite news of weaker exports It was closed today for a holiday.. There is also talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are turning mixed on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was closed for a holiday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 688.00 and 723.00 July. Support is at 647.00, 639.00, and 616.00 July, with resistance at 689.00, 696.00, and 702.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3870, 3820, and 3760 August, with resistance at 3990, 4040, and 4210 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May

June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July

July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 107,903 lots, or 5.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,656 4,677 4,641 4,674 4,663 4,658 -5 72,857 108,753
Sep-24 4,648 4,664 4,633 4,661 4,656 4,650 -6 31,260 45,831
Nov-24 4,605 4,623 4,594 4,619 4,617 4,609 -8 861 6,408
Jan-25 4,594 4,615 4,586 4,613 4,607 4,604 -3 2,747 10,336
Mar-25 4,591 4,609 4,581 4,608 4,601 4,598 -3 160 783
May-25 4,604 4,615 4,597 4,613 4,607 4,608 1 18 64
Corn
Turnover: 665,095 lots, or 16.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,454 2,476 2,450 2,476 2,450 2,465 15 417,368 609,970
Sep-24 2,475 2,499 2,474 2,498 2,477 2,489 12 147,339 503,429
Nov-24 2,430 2,452 2,430 2,450 2,433 2,442 9 40,713 229,685
Jan-25 2,420 2,439 2,416 2,439 2,422 2,431 9 38,962 137,292
Mar-25 2,426 2,445 2,418 2,445 2,425 2,432 7 20,431 26,868
May-25 2,454 2,478 2,453 2,477 2,459 2,468 9 282 431
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,619,633 lots, or 57.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,480 3,520 3,473 3,519 3,507 3,498 -9 51,028 116,419
Aug-24 3,586 3,617 3,562 3,614 3,591 3,590 -1 9,055 70,644
Sep-24 3,582 3,624 3,568 3,622 3,601 3,594 -7 1,352,672 2,287,063
Nov-24 3,598 3,637 3,582 3,636 3,611 3,609 -2 44,678 391,394
Dec-24 3,569 3,606 3,556 3,606 3,584 3,581 -3 2,853 40,855
Jan-25 3,514 3,552 3,499 3,550 3,528 3,523 -5 117,455 335,277
Mar-25 3,334 3,358 3,320 3,358 3,348 3,339 -9 6,808 30,597
May-25 3,186 3,199 3,175 3,195 3,192 3,189 -3 35,084 59,594
Palm Oil
Turnover: 669,721 lots, or 51.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-24 7,734 7,766 7,694 7,728 7,770 7,726 -44 891 1,437
Jul-24 7,650 7,684 7,614 7,658 7,706 7,646 -60 4,959 8,331
Aug-24 7,644 7,666 7,594 7,644 7,696 7,632 -64 618 1,205
Sep-24 7,616 7,682 7,604 7,662 7,692 7,640 -52 621,716 575,549
Oct-24 7,602 7,670 7,602 7,668 7,690 7,640 -50 162 505
Nov-24 7,628 7,672 7,614 7,670 7,694 7,644 -50 30 672
Dec-24 7,616 7,680 7,600 7,676 7,694 7,640 -54 50 382
Jan-25 7,650 7,700 7,614 7,690 7,702 7,654 -48 40,824 105,579
Feb-25 7,640 7,682 7,636 7,660 7,696 7,652 -44 29 135
Mar-25 7,654 7,702 7,638 7,692 7,696 7,668 -28 129 1,453
Apr-25 7,674 7,710 7,660 7,710 7,728 7,682 -46 34 164
May-25 7,658 7,686 7,620 7,668 7,708 7,654 -54 279 361
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 577,736 lots, or 46.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,916 7,982 7,888 7,964 7,940 7,942 2 5,290 16,644
Aug-24 7,946 8,022 7,930 8,002 7,992 7,984 -8 3,286 21,885
Sep-24 8,000 8,062 7,960 8,042 8,020 8,014 -6 517,936 783,287
Nov-24 8,018 8,076 7,978 8,054 8,032 8,016 -16 897 6,971
Dec-24 8,062 8,138 8,048 8,138 8,102 8,108 6 56 1,765
Jan-25 8,062 8,138 8,038 8,120 8,096 8,092 -4 48,369 155,256
Mar-25 7,932 7,982 7,912 7,972 7,970 7,952 -18 142 3,367
May-25 7,846 7,870 7,802 7,860 7,860 7,842 -18 1,760 3,077
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322