Grains Report 05/20/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was a little higher last week in Chicago and Minneapolis, but lower in Kansas City after more reports of frosts and freezing temperatures in Russian growing areas. Reports indicate that Russia will still have plenty of Wheat for export in the coming year. USDA issued its latest reports Friday and included a field survey of Winter Wheat production. Winter Wheat production was estimated at 1.288 billion bushels which was a little below the average trade estimate. Ending stocks for Wheat were also below the trade estimate at 766 million bushels. The Kansas Wheat Tour has been this week and has found the best crop in five years with yields over 43 bushels per acre. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed improved sales. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 647, 632, and 610 July, with resistance at 697, 706, and 712 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 646, 640, and 630 July, with resistance at 710, 716, and 722 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 747 July. Support is at 710, 700, and 697 July, and resistance is at 731, 758, and 764 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 14, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 492,012
: Positions :
: 44,816 113,964 163,548 77,973 120,434 174,728 53,132 461,065 451,078: 30,947 40,933
: Changes from: May 7, 2024 (Change in open interest: 43,281) :
: 5,278 -4,656 20,985 5,128 20,522 8,801 3,379 40,191 40,230: 3,090 3,051
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 23.2 33.2 15.8 24.5 35.5 10.8 93.7 91.7: 6.3 8.3
: Total Traders: 346 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 98 115 81 97 47 35 278 280:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 14, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 267,408
: Positions :
: 21,402 59,911 73,131 60,777 94,966 95,475 17,138 250,785 245,146: 16,623 22,261
: Changes from: May 7, 2024 (Change in open interest: 8,515) :
: 1,587 -4,339 5,541 2,241 8,781 -1,002 -252 8,367 9,731: 148 -1,216
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.0 22.4 27.3 22.7 35.5 35.7 6.4 93.8 91.7: 6.2 8.3
: Total Traders: 238 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 38 57 64 74 80 41 24 195 187:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 14, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 51,782 :
: Positions :
: 22,127 27,236 3,782 325 396 9,544 6,771 2,794 2,210 265 2,692 :
: Changes from: May 7, 2024 :
: 306 4,897 121 -66 -126 945 -4,838 208 -351 0 567 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 42.7 52.6 7.3 0.6 0.8 18.4 13.1 5.4 4.3 0.5 5.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 96 :
: 46 36 5 . . 13 14 10 7 . 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mixed on Friday in consolidation trading, with July lower but the new crop months higher. Futures were lower for the week. The futures market overall remained in a short term trading range. The USDA export sales report indicated moderate sales. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Some more big storms are coming to this region in the next few days. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1827, 1785, and 1750 July and resistance is at 1945, 1955, and 1972 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 14, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,807 :
: Positions :
: 3,695 7,639 188 0 0 1,941 410 5 1,446 37 668 :
: Changes from: May 7, 2024 :
: 336 125 -1 0 0 -267 0 0 20 -156 25 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 37.7 77.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 19.8 4.2 0.1 14.7 0.4 6.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 52 :
: 19 19 . 0 0 10 . . 9 4 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower last week. The USDA reports are helping to support futures as are ideas of better demand. USDA estimated high production at 14.860 billion bushels, but ending stocks were a little below trade expectations at 2.102 billion bushels. USDQ anticipates better demand for US Corn with the cheaper prices seen now. USDA made no real changes to South American production estimates. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is the driving force. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 450, 444, and 440 July, and resistance is at 457, 467, and 475 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 357, 350, and 343 July, and resistance is at 383, 390, and 403 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 14, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,973,804
: Positions :
: 160,074 266,466 623,640 482,417 658,949 516,104 188,493 1,782,235 1,737,548: 191,570 236,257
: Changes from: May 7, 2024 (Change in open interest: 78,722) :
: 13,990 -18,473 41,141 8,640 30,650 16,358 9,335 80,129 62,653: -1,407 16,069
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 13.5 31.6 24.4 33.4 26.1 9.5 90.3 88.0: 9.7 12.0
: Total Traders: 781 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 142 138 200 349 356 52 39 646 649:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 14, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,490 :
: Positions :
: 665 3,445 194 0 0 676 0 0 685 196 54 :
: Changes from: May 7, 2024 :
: . . . . . . . . . . . :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.8 76.7 4.3 0.0 0.0 15.1 0.0 0.0 15.2 4.4 1.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 20 :
: 5 8 . 0 0 6 0 0 4 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed a little higher last week. Soybean Oil was higher on spreads against Soybean Meal. Soybean Meal was only slightly higher. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling in US growing areas, especially the eastern sections of the Midwest. USDA released its first estimates for the coming crop year and held production potential at high levels at 4.450 billion bushels. Export and domestic demand were increased but ending stocks also were estimated higher qt 450 million bushels. Futures rallied anyway and the rally on what appeared to be negative news can often mean that higher prices are coming this week and for the next couple of weeks. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1204, 1192, and 1187 July, and resistance is at 1250, 1256, and 1260 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 350.00 July, and resistance is at 388.00, 390.00, and 396.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4230, 4200, and 4140 July, with resistance at 4610, 4690, and 4780 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 14, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 966,137
: Positions :
: 55,756 140,650 286,593 355,706 400,001 205,597 57,191 903,653 884,435: 62,484 81,702
: Changes from: May 7, 2024 (Change in open interest: 11,863) :
: -9,972 -5,089 2,314 15,618 13,510 849 -4,372 8,809 6,363: 3,054 5,500
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.8 14.6 29.7 36.8 41.4 21.3 5.9 93.5 91.5: 6.5 8.5
: Total Traders: 543 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 157 178 195 210 48 28 454 460:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 14, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 591,019
: Positions :
: 55,756 142,569 138,309 195,574 243,048 167,220 37,975 556,860 561,901: 34,159 29,118
: Changes from: May 7, 2024 (Change in open interest: -913) :
: -4,558 -1,450 4,349 236 1,349 -2,873 -4,674 -2,847 -427: 1,934 -486
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.4 24.1 23.4 33.1 41.1 28.3 6.4 94.2 95.1: 5.8 4.9
: Total Traders: 346 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 100 105 94 91 45 23 271 265:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 14, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 534,529
: Positions :
: 105,038 49,531 123,940 116,293 310,499 133,291 21,692 478,562 505,663: 55,968 28,867
: Changes from: May 7, 2024 (Change in open interest: 8,149) :
: 13,092 1,004 -367 -6,160 8,192 -2,649 -189 3,916 8,641: 4,233 -491
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.7 9.3 23.2 21.8 58.1 24.9 4.1 89.5 94.6: 10.5 5.4
: Total Traders: 343 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 80 89 111 124 43 24 278 266:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on Chicago price action and despite news of weaker exports. There is also talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are turning mixed on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was higher despite weaker prices in world vegetable oils markets as the market pays attention to Chicago price action and the flooding in Brazil. Farmers concentrate on fieldwork and not selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 688.00 and 723.00 July. Support is at 647.00, 639.00, and 616.00 July, with resistance at 689.00, 696.00, and 702.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3780, 3760, and 3720 July, with resistance at 3810, 3850, and 3890 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 14, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 48,590 :
: Positions :
: 38,610 15,670 1,050 17,230 50 480 2,730 80 900 5,410 7,410 :
: Changes from: May 7, 2024 :
: 3,180 1,320 0 1,740 0 -80 140 0 60 -40 1,280 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 79.5 32.2 2.2 35.5 0.1 1.0 5.6 0.2 1.9 11.1 15.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :
: 8 10 . 4 . . . . . 8 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 14, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 252,573 :
: Positions :
: 188,573 129,689 5,187 9,372 1,969 8,283 65,063 27,169 12,414 9,913 7,322 :
: Changes from: May 7, 2024 :
: 6,039 16,264 122 1,353 117 -836 -15,568 8,624 -1,376 1,306 1,360 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 74.7 51.3 2.1 3.7 0.8 3.3 25.8 10.8 4.9 3.9 2.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 322 :
: 62 58 4 5 6 27 65 23 65 69 49 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May

June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July

July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 870.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 870.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 875.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 875.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 890.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 825.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 3,950.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 290.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.683)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 95,591 lots, or 4.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,669 4,675 4,651 4,661 4,645 4,661 16 73,162 109,904
Sep-24 4,669 4,669 4,644 4,656 4,638 4,653 15 19,603 42,576
Nov-24 4,617 4,619 4,604 4,615 4,603 4,611 8 621 6,064
Jan-25 4,610 4,612 4,595 4,605 4,590 4,602 12 1,984 9,364
Mar-25 4,605 4,605 4,588 4,598 4,587 4,594 7 204 769
May-25 4,609 4,609 4,573 4,583 4,587 4,585 -2 17 14
Corn
Turnover: 593,805 lots, or 14.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,458 2,465 2,448 2,454 2,464 2,455 -9 393,038 622,791
Sep-24 2,484 2,490 2,474 2,481 2,490 2,481 -9 135,178 483,676
Nov-24 2,435 2,438 2,425 2,433 2,442 2,430 -12 30,384 224,844
Jan-25 2,420 2,422 2,409 2,420 2,425 2,416 -9 30,226 123,074
Mar-25 2,423 2,425 2,414 2,425 2,429 2,419 -10 4,764 26,055
May-25 2,439 2,445 2,427 2,441 2,429 2,435 6 215 139
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,664,302 lots, or 59.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,506 3,507 3,469 3,491 3,483 3,486 3 41,071 128,635
Aug-24 3,587 3,595 3,555 3,581 3,566 3,572 6 20,680 70,240
Sep-24 3,590 3,601 3,558 3,583 3,571 3,578 7 1,330,361 2,272,486
Nov-24 3,601 3,609 3,566 3,593 3,576 3,586 10 48,079 361,755
Dec-24 3,571 3,581 3,543 3,563 3,550 3,560 10 6,674 38,801
Jan-25 3,528 3,533 3,491 3,514 3,501 3,510 9 146,792 334,710
Mar-25 3,332 3,348 3,316 3,331 3,314 3,332 18 11,704 31,988
May-25 3,285 3,285 3,169 3,184 3,314 3,206 -108 58,941 45,610
Palm Oil
Turnover: 754,671 lots, or 57.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-24 7,678 7,760 7,670 7,758 7,628 7,714 86 3,244 2,161
Jul-24 7,630 7,716 7,626 7,680 7,566 7,668 102 9,789 7,767
Aug-24 7,646 7,716 7,622 7,666 7,538 7,668 130 771 1,332
Sep-24 7,658 7,714 7,614 7,664 7,550 7,660 110 693,751 572,763
Oct-24 7,638 7,700 7,616 7,658 7,566 7,652 86 176 456
Nov-24 7,642 7,688 7,616 7,662 7,550 7,650 100 80 639
Dec-24 7,648 7,690 7,620 7,660 7,552 7,656 104 279 410
Jan-25 7,662 7,712 7,622 7,670 7,548 7,662 114 46,098 102,476
Feb-25 7,630 7,698 7,628 7,660 7,546 7,656 110 39 128
Mar-25 7,618 7,712 7,612 7,672 7,560 7,662 102 255 1,486
Apr-25 7,634 7,726 7,634 7,700 7,580 7,688 108 19 173
May-25 7,684 7,702 7,630 7,678 7,580 7,662 82 170 120
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 663,056 lots, or 52.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,868 7,898 7,820 7,884 7,788 7,862 74 8,550 17,194
Aug-24 7,922 7,990 7,918 7,944 7,834 7,938 104 4,276 17,922
Sep-24 7,966 8,028 7,944 7,986 7,868 7,980 112 580,955 802,100
Nov-24 7,978 8,032 7,958 7,994 7,896 7,990 94 1,504 7,317
Dec-24 8,040 8,100 8,024 8,064 7,932 8,072 140 226 1,788
Jan-25 8,046 8,104 8,024 8,062 7,954 8,056 102 65,514 146,329
Mar-25 7,952 7,996 7,932 7,952 7,874 7,962 88 377 3,415
May-25 7,852 8,072 7,788 7,830 7,874 7,832 -42 1,654 1,406
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322