Grains Report 05/16/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 16
For the week ended May 9, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 78.5 304.3 18916.1 18886.5 1394.9 3263.9
hrw 25.8 -8.8 3625.2 5109.6 345.7 661.4
srw 40.2 49.2 4334.3 2900.1 220.3 501.8
hrs 4.4 149.8 6433.2 5754.1 472.2 1133.9
white 4.5 94.1 3993.0 4670.7 329.8 876.8
durum 3.5 20.0 530.5 451.9 26.9 90.0
corn 742.2 128.2 48366.1 38054.6 12969.9 2305.5
soybeans 265.7 25.2 42602.2 50724.9 3479.7 890.4
soymeal 300.4 31.1 11663.6 10223.0 2867.2 398.0
soyoil 9.1 1.0 132.1 118.6 72.1 13.0
upland cotton 156.5 140.6 11801.8 12631.6 3239.1 1601.0
pima cotton 3.6 1.0 308.5 304.1 57.9 4.3
sorghum 11.9 0.0 5156.9 1640.2 529.8 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 11.7 12.0 6.1 14.0
rice 25.8 0.0 3056.9 1830.4 529.1 51.5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday after more reports of frosts and freezing temperatures in Russian growing areas The short covering from funds finally ran out of steam. Reports indicate that Russia will still have plenty of Wheat for export in the coming year. USDA issued its latest reports on Friday and included a field survey of Winter Wheat production. Winter Wheat production was estimated at 1.288 billion bushels which was a little below the average trade estimate. Ending stocks for Wheat were also below the trade estimate at 766 million bushels. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again and sales are not likely to improve anytime soon with the Dollar strength. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 699 July. Support is at 647, 632, and 610 July, with resistance at 700, 706, and 712 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 665, 646, and 640 July, with resistance at 710, 716, and 722 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 747 July. Support is at 721, 716, and 711 July, and resistance is at 762, 758, and 764 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mostly lower, but higher in July. The futures market overall remained in a short term trading range. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the cold crop and the new crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1827, 1785, and 1750 July and resistance is at 1945, 1955, and 1972 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower after trading higher early in the day as the fund short covering fainally ran out. The USDA reports are helping to support futures as are ideas of better demand USDA estimated high production at 14.860 billion bushels, but ending stocks were a little below trade expectations at 2.102 billion bushels. USDQ anticipates better demand for US Corn with the cheaper prices seen now. USDA made no real changes to South American production estimates. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is the driving force. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 470 July. Support is at 465, 454, and 450 July, and resistance is at 477, 483, and 490 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 428 July. Support is at 390, 383, and 376 July, and resistance is at 432, 438, and 444 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower. Soybean Oil was higher on spreads against Soybean Meal. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling on unharvested crops in southern Brazil. Rains up to 400 mm were reported by newswires. USDA released its first estimates for the coming crop year and held production potential at high levels at 4.450 billion bush3els. Export and domestic demand were increased but ending stocks also were estimated higher qt 450 million bushels. Futures rallied anyway and the rally on what appeared to be negative news can often mean that higher prices are coming this week and for the next couple of weeks. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market. Funds remain short in the market.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 180,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1204, 1192, and 1187 July, and resistance is at 1250, 1256, and 1260 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 350.00 July, and resistance is at 368.00, 388.00, and 390.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4230, 4200, and 4140 July, with resistance at 4530, 4610, and 4690 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on Chicago price action and despite news of weaker exports.. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was higher despite weaker prices in world vegetable oils markets as the market pays attention to Chicago price action and the flooding in Brazil. Farmers concentrate on fieldwork and not selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 688.00 and 723.00 July. Support is at 647.00, 639.00, and 616.00 July, with resistance at 672.00, 679.00, and 589.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3650 July. Support is at 3740, 3700, and 3660 July, with resistance at 3870, 3930, and 4020 July.

DJ Malaysia May 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Fell 17.6% on Month to 574,760 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the May 1-15 period are estimated down 17.6% on month at 574,760 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-15 April 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 159,426 210,663
RBD Palm Oil 38,207 107,434
RBD Palm Stearin 43,443 45,186
Crude Palm Oil 92,266 136,849
Total* 574,760 697,449
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May

June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July

July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 852.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 850.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 845.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 850.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 857.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 855.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 850.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 855.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 885.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 815.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 3,880.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 289.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6825)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 68,807 lots, or .32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,670 4,650 -20 25 25
Jul-24 4,640 4,644 4,618 4,627 4,626 4,630 4 53,892 113,790
Sep-24 4,625 4,634 4,607 4,619 4,614 4,622 8 12,965 40,884
Nov-24 4,593 4,597 4,576 4,584 4,579 4,589 10 467 5,712
Jan-25 4,580 4,588 4,566 4,575 4,570 4,578 8 1,369 9,162
Mar-25 4,573 4,582 4,565 4,569 4,564 4,574 10 89 798
Corn
Turnover: 546,937 lots, or 13.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 – – – 2,426 2,426 2,426 0 0 1
Jul-24 2,460 2,471 2,457 2,467 2,454 2,464 10 346,944 666,715
Sep-24 2,488 2,498 2,483 2,495 2,480 2,491 11 128,112 448,231
Nov-24 2,432 2,445 2,429 2,443 2,430 2,438 8 32,486 208,040
Jan-25 2,421 2,429 2,415 2,428 2,417 2,423 6 26,092 111,264
Mar-25 2,426 2,432 2,418 2,431 2,421 2,426 5 13,303 26,053
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,424,006 lots, or 50.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 – – – 3,455 3,455 3,455 0 500 1,989
Jul-24 3,494 3,497 3,456 3,463 3,465 3,477 12 33,617 134,272
Aug-24 3,572 3,578 3,539 3,546 3,546 3,561 15 8,509 65,941
Sep-24 3,580 3,583 3,541 3,550 3,549 3,562 13 1,199,995 2,292,083
Nov-24 3,585 3,589 3,548 3,555 3,555 3,567 12 65,720 317,603
Dec-24 3,553 3,561 3,523 3,531 3,525 3,543 18 5,438 37,474
Jan-25 3,502 3,506 3,467 3,475 3,472 3,485 13 103,804 319,943
Mar-25 3,305 3,313 3,288 3,293 3,290 3,301 11 6,423 32,641
Palm Oil
Turnover: 871,559 lots, or 65.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 – – – 7,580 7,580 7,580 0 0 1,304
Jun-24 7,616 7,654 7,500 7,530 7,546 7,584 38 3,218 3,738
Jul-24 7,552 7,586 7,438 7,468 7,480 7,518 38 7,818 7,612
Aug-24 7,526 7,566 7,426 7,460 7,418 7,496 78 1,018 1,103
Sep-24 7,508 7,564 7,424 7,456 7,438 7,506 68 812,416 531,896
Oct-24 7,500 7,548 7,422 7,462 7,432 7,470 38 272 477
Nov-24 7,500 7,526 7,434 7,448 7,402 7,494 92 84 622
Dec-24 7,510 7,526 7,426 7,456 7,402 7,490 88 57 503
Jan-25 7,476 7,532 7,412 7,448 7,420 7,482 62 46,317 100,607
Feb-25 7,492 7,504 7,430 7,444 7,440 7,480 40 44 116
Mar-25 7,496 7,514 7,418 7,458 7,420 7,476 56 233 1,562
Apr-25 7,508 7,540 7,466 7,492 7,424 7,522 98 82 173
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 681,275 lots, or 53.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,710 7,710 7,680 7,680 7,574 7,688 114 17 900
Jul-24 7,738 7,754 7,662 7,690 7,618 7,712 94 5,329 18,443
Aug-24 7,772 7,808 7,728 7,756 7,690 7,766 76 2,317 16,137
Sep-24 7,792 7,838 7,754 7,788 7,706 7,804 98 624,391 768,788
Nov-24 7,832 7,860 7,780 7,816 7,740 7,830 90 1,477 8,464
Dec-24 7,902 7,920 7,848 7,852 7,818 7,890 72 68 1,882
Jan-25 7,892 7,922 7,836 7,868 7,786 7,888 102 46,965 145,014
Mar-25 7,790 7,810 7,738 7,776 7,704 7,782 78 711 3,469
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322