Grains Report 05/15/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May 16, 2024 13 May 14, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL May May 16, 2024 153 May 14, 2024
ROUGH RICE May May 16, 2024 6 May 13, 2024
CORN May May 16, 2024 56 May 14, 2024
OATS May May 16, 2024 7 May 13, 2024
SOYBEAN May May 16, 2024 6 May 14, 2024
WHEAT May May 16, 2024 19 May 14, 2024
MINI-SIZED WHEAT May May 16, 2024 5 Apr 30, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday as there were no more reports of frosts and freezing temperatures in Russian growing areas Reports indicate that Russia will still have plenty of Wheat for export in the coming year. USDA issued its latest reports on Friday and included a field survey of Winter Wheat production. Winter Wheat production was estimated at 1.288 billion bushels which was a little below the average trade estimate. Ending stocks for Wheat were also below the trade estimate at 766 million bushels. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again and sales are not likely to improve anytime soon with the Dollar strength. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 699 July. Support is at 647, 632, and 610 July, with resistance at 694, 700, and 706 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 679, 66a5, and 646 July, with resistance at 710, 716, and 722 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 747 July. Support is at 721, 716, and 711 July, and resistance is at 746, 752, and 758 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher in consolidation trading yesterday. The futures market overall remained in a short term trading range. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the cold crop and the new crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1827, 1785, and 1750 July and resistance is at 1945, 1955, and 1972 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 15
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 23.97 14.54 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 23.49 15.77 0.00
Brokens 14.50 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 48.82/19.56 6.76
Medium Grain/Short Grain 61.56/9.04 7.04

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower in consolidation trading. The USDA reports are helping to support futures as are ideas of better demand USDA estimated high production at 14.860 billion bushels, but ending stocks were a little below trade expectations at 2.102 billion bushels. USDQ anticipates better demand for US Corn with the cheaper prices seen now. USDA made no real changes to South American production estimates. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is the driving force. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 470 July. Support is at 465, 454, and 450 July, and resistance is at 477, 483, and 490 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 428 July. Support is at 400, 390, and 383 July, and resistance is at 432, 438, and 444 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower. Soybean meal was higher on spreads against Soybean Oil. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling on unharvested crops in southern Brazil. Rains up to 400 mm were reported by newswires. USDA released its first estimates for the coming crop year and held production potential at high levels at 4.450 billion bush3els. Export and domestic demand were increased but ending stocks also were estimated higher qt 450 million bushels. Futures rallied anyway and the rally on what appeared to be negative news can often mean that higher prices are coming this week and for the next couple of weeks. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market. Funds remain short in the market.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 180,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1204, 1192, and 1187 July, and resistance is at 1250, 1256, and 1260 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 350.00 July, and resistance is at 368.00, 388.00, and 390.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4230, 4200, and 4140 July, with resistance at 4530, 4610, and 4690 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on Chicago price action and despite news of weaker exports.. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was higher despite weaker prices in world vegetable oils markets as the market pays attention to Chicago price action and the flooding in Brazil. Farmers concentrate on fieldwork and not selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 688.00 and 723.00 July. Support is at 647.00, 639.00, and 616.00 July, with resistance at 672.00, 679.00, and 589.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3650 July. Support is at 3740, 3700, and 3660 July, with resistance at 3870, 3930, and 4020 July.

DJ Malaysia May 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Fell 17.6% on Month to 574,760 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the May 1-15 period are estimated down 17.6% on month at 574,760 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-15 April 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 159,426 210,663
RBD Palm Oil 38,207 107,434
RBD Palm Stearin 43,443 45,186
Crude Palm Oil 92,266 136,849
Total* 574,760 697,449
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May

June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July

July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 855.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 855.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 855.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 860.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 860.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 860.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 860.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 865.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 890.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 820.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 3,900.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 290.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.705)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 110,972 lots, or 5.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,670 4,670 4,670 4,670 4,637 4,670 33 87 303
Jul-24 4,646 4,648 4,607 4,628 4,633 4,626 -7 88,616 110,733
Sep-24 4,630 4,636 4,597 4,619 4,622 4,614 -8 19,172 40,394
Nov-24 4,594 4,597 4,565 4,585 4,593 4,579 -14 745 5,559
Jan-25 4,584 4,588 4,556 4,574 4,581 4,570 -11 2,200 8,834
Mar-25 4,574 4,579 4,551 4,566 4,574 4,564 -10 152 791
Corn
Turnover: 491,442 lots, or 12.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,432 2,432 2,420 2,423 2,429 2,426 -3 152 6,097
Jul-24 2,457 2,460 2,446 2,459 2,457 2,454 -3 330,356 679,479
Sep-24 2,480 2,487 2,472 2,485 2,483 2,480 -3 106,214 418,268
Nov-24 2,432 2,436 2,423 2,434 2,430 2,430 0 23,029 199,937
Jan-25 2,414 2,422 2,409 2,420 2,416 2,417 1 21,581 114,416
Mar-25 2,421 2,427 2,414 2,423 2,420 2,421 1 10,110 25,437
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,439,443 lots, or 50.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,460 3,460 3,450 3,450 3,449 3,455 6 86 2,489
Jul-24 3,450 3,488 3,440 3,483 3,483 3,465 -18 45,599 135,678
Aug-24 3,528 3,568 3,516 3,563 3,558 3,546 -12 9,358 66,459
Sep-24 3,527 3,571 3,521 3,565 3,559 3,549 -10 1,202,660 2,302,477
Nov-24 3,535 3,575 3,528 3,575 3,563 3,555 -8 60,343 284,183
Dec-24 3,509 3,545 3,499 3,545 3,531 3,525 -6 5,432 36,600
Jan-25 3,456 3,494 3,448 3,489 3,474 3,472 -2 108,094 323,810
Mar-25 3,275 3,306 3,264 3,300 3,294 3,290 -4 7,871 32,206
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,104,791 lots, or 82.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,580 7,580 7,580 7,580 7,728 7,580 -148 10 1,304
Jun-24 7,492 7,660 7,410 7,634 7,592 7,546 -46 3,532 4,178
Jul-24 7,430 7,596 7,346 7,560 7,540 7,480 -60 8,814 7,849
Aug-24 7,408 7,572 7,330 7,544 7,526 7,418 -108 885 1,129
Sep-24 7,400 7,580 7,316 7,532 7,516 7,438 -78 1,029,051 537,343
Oct-24 7,374 7,564 7,322 7,516 7,504 7,432 -72 409 411
Nov-24 7,342 7,550 7,318 7,504 7,494 7,402 -92 223 642
Dec-24 7,380 7,534 7,312 7,512 7,482 7,402 -80 153 505
Jan-25 7,380 7,538 7,308 7,500 7,484 7,420 -64 61,275 100,735
Feb-25 7,362 7,514 7,324 7,488 7,498 7,440 -58 53 114
Mar-25 7,378 7,526 7,320 7,484 7,518 7,420 -98 334 1,558
Apr-25 7,356 7,542 7,356 7,520 7,514 7,424 -90 52 106
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 814,285 lots, or 62.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,574 7,574 7,574 7,574 7,518 7,574 56 1 917
Jul-24 7,618 7,742 7,544 7,732 7,692 7,618 -74 8,845 19,101
Aug-24 7,648 7,788 7,578 7,784 7,738 7,690 -48 900 15,479
Sep-24 7,658 7,820 7,602 7,810 7,768 7,706 -62 739,339 771,858
Nov-24 7,722 7,844 7,636 7,828 7,788 7,740 -48 1,513 8,517
Dec-24 7,752 7,902 7,700 7,900 7,852 7,818 -34 87 1,909
Jan-25 7,732 7,902 7,694 7,892 7,844 7,786 -58 62,926 144,559
Mar-25 7,686 7,798 7,636 7,778 7,782 7,704 -78 674 3,447
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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