Softs Report 05/13/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week and trends are still mixed in the market. USDA increased production for the coming year and also increased demand and ending stocks. The report was bearish for futures. Demand remains a problem. The export sales report showed poor sales once again and demand is not likely to improve with the Dollar stronger. USDA made no changes to the domestic supply or demand sides of the balance sheets, but did cut world ending stocks slightly. Trends are still down on the weekly charts. Demand has been weaker so far this year. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and rains and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices werepost4ed for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 412 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 74.90, 74.00, and 73.40 July, with resistance of 79.80, 80.70 and 81.40 July.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Apr May
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 13.75 10.23 NA 10.67*
Harvested 7.29 6.44 NA 9.13*
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 953 899 NA 842*
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.05 4.25 NA 2.40
Production 14.47 12.07 NA 16.00
Imports 0.00 0.01 NA 0.01
Supply, Total 18.52 16.32 NA 18.41
Domestic Use 2.05 1.80 NA 1.90
Exports, Total 12.77 12.30 NA 13.00
Use, Total 14.82 14.10 NA 14.90
Unaccounted 2/ -0.55 -0.18 NA -0.20
Ending Stocks 4.25 2.40 NA 3.70
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 84.8 76.0 NA 74.0
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WASDE – 648 – 18 May 2024

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2024/25 Proj.
World
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 80.48 119.05 44.95 116.86 44.98 -0.37 83.01
World Less China
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 39.35 92.05 32.95 77.86 44.88 -0.37 41.98
United States
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.40 16.00 0.01 1.90 13.00 -0.20 3.70
Total Foreign
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 78.08 103.05 44.94 114.96 31.98 -0.18 79.31
Major Exporters 4/
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 26.56 59.83 2.22 34.43 27.77 -0.18 26.59

Major Importers 8/
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 48.21 39.82 40.02 76.57 2.42 0.00 49.06
================================================================================
WASDE – 648 – 28 May 2024

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 07, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 257,425
: Positions :
: 32,261 50,969 66,054 66,462 111,943 78,781 14,561 243,557 243,527: 13,868 13,898
: Changes from: April 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: 10,789) :
: -3,542 6,936 9,076 6,755 -7,946 -1,332 3,213 10,956 11,279: -167 -490
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.5 19.8 25.7 25.8 43.5 30.6 5.7 94.6 94.6: 5.4 5.4
: Total Traders: 310 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 89 92 64 65 48 26 252 224:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher last week and broke out of the trading range for higher levels. USDA released its latest production estimates and Florida production was estimated at 17,8 million boxes, down 5% from the last estimate but still 13% above the production of last year. Florida early and mid season and navel production was left at 6.80 million boxes, unchanged from the previous estimate, but Valencia production was cut 8% to 11 million boxes. Nielsen is reporting less retail demand due to the higher prices and volumes sold at retail have sagged. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 402.00 and 421.00 July. Support is at 388.00, 382.00, and 360.00 July, with resistance at 402.00, 408.00, and 414.00 July.

The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is
2.69 million tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast but up 5 percent
from the 2022-2023 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at
17.8 million boxes (801,000 tons), is down 5 percent from the previous
forecast but up 13 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida,
early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 6.80 million boxes
(306,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 11 percent from
last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at
11.0 million boxes (495,000 tons), is down 8 percent from the previous
forecast but up 14 percent from last season’s final utilization.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 7, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 10,915 :
: Positions :
: 1,891 5,902 585 0 137 2,619 1,072 7 1,632 762 1,756 :
: Changes from: April 30, 2024 :
: 135 347 -21 0 37 14 -27 -1 40 -66 288 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.3 54.1 5.4 0.0 1.3 24.0 9.8 0.1 15.0 7.0 16.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 56 :
: 6 8 . 0 . 17 6 . 10 9 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed slightly higher last week and London closed lower and traders say that the market could have made a low on the charts. There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is continuing and offers for all Coffee increased last week in part on weakness in the Real. Roasters and other buyers are pulling back from the market in hopes of lower prices down the road.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 198.88 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 24 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,105 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 201.00 July. Support is at 197.00, 193.00, and 187.00 July, and resistance is at 200.00, 208.00 and 212.00 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 3400, 3370, and 3330 July, with resistance at 3770, 3810, and 3950 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 07, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 288,117
: Positions :
: 61,211 17,868 90,027 63,496 158,827 63,599 14,809 278,332 281,530: 9,785 6,587
: Changes from: April 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: -1,360) :
: -7,591 -1,958 4,224 1,067 -6,783 168 2,030 -2,133 -2,487: 773 1,128
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.2 6.2 31.2 22.0 55.1 22.1 5.1 96.6 97.7: 3.4 2.3
: Total Traders: 396 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 126 73 118 95 119 53 23 330 289:
——————————————————————————————————————-

\SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed lower last week and both markets remain in a trading range. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer and production data released a few weeks ago by CONAB indicated that the cane harvest could be less, but that Sugar production could be higher. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2040 and 2130 July. Support is at 1950, 1890, and 1860 July and resistance is at 2050, 2100, and 2100 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 591.00 and 607.00 August. Support is at 569.00, 560.00, and 554.00 August, with resistance at 590.00, 601.00, and 608.00 August.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Apr May May
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1820 1843 1843 1758
Production 2/ 9250 9215 9131 9232
Beet Sugar 5187 5144 5095 5111
Cane Sugar 4063 4071 4036 4121
Florida 1985 2095 2060 2036
Louisiana 2001 1936 1936 2085
Texas 76 40 40 0
Imports 3614 3417 3438 3028
TRQ 3/ 1862 1775 1798 1415
Other Program 4/ 141 288 288 200
Non-program 1611 1354 1352 1413
Mexico 1156 499 497 1197
High-tier tariff/other 455 855 855 216
Total Supply 14685 14474 14411 14019
Exports 82 198 198 100
Deliveries 12589 12555 12455 12455
Food 12473 12450 12350 12350
Other 5/ 116 105 105 105
Miscellaneous 171 0 0 0
Total Use 12843 12753 12653 12555
Ending Stocks 1843 1722 1758 1464
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 13.5 13.9 11.7
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2023/24 Est.
Apr 835 4572 575 4618 471 894
May 835 4649 575 4618 569 872
2024/25 Proj.
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 872 5189 525 4661 1024 900
================================================================================
WASDE – 648 – 17 May 2024

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 07, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 977,882
: Positions :
: 87,014 131,368 218,936 357,860 473,966 244,866 81,075 908,676 905,345: 69,206 72,537
: Changes from: April 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: -5,249) :
: 1,166 7,837 13,901 -21,723 -23,922 -1,373 1,547 -8,028 -637: 2,779 -4,613
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 13.4 22.4 36.6 48.5 25.0 8.3 92.9 92.6: 7.1 7.4
: Total Traders: 241 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 59 77 70 64 41 22 205 187:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were higher last week in recovery trading. Trends are trying to turn up on the daily charts. It seemed that speculators were liquidating long positions. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tig8ht supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 904 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed Support is at 8170, 7410, and 6900 July, with resistance at 8790, 9670, and 10210 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6330, 5960, and 5230 July, with resistance at 7630, 7730, and 7970 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 07, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 261,708
: Positions :
: 21,387 13,827 132,365 67,355 95,318 28,567 14,020 249,674 255,530: 12,034 6,177
: Changes from: April 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: -6,546) :
: -1,710 -1,989 -5,097 418 -654 -519 1,882 -6,908 -5,858: 362 -688
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.2 5.3 50.6 25.7 36.4 10.9 5.4 95.4 97.6: 4.6 2.4
: Total Traders: 173 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 38 69 38 32 29 16 158 127:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322