Grains Report 05/10/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May 13, 2024 111 May 09, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL May May 13, 2024 167 May 09, 2024
ROUGH RICE May May 13, 2024 3 Apr 30, 2024
OATS May May 13, 2024 9 May 06, 2024
SOYBEAN May May 13, 2024 6 May 06, 2024
WHEAT May May 13, 2024 88 May 09, 2024

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Average Range USDA 2023
Corn Production 14,897 14,720-15,342 15,342
Soybean Production 4,430 4,165-4,496 4,165
****
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,098 1,967-2,350 2,122
Soybeans 341 304-365 340
Wheat 689 598-710 698
U.S. 2024-25 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,256 2,032-2,513 N/A
Soybeans 432 315-552 N/A
Wheat 786 652-862 N/A
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA April
Corn 315.3 311.0-317.2 318.3
Soybeans 112.4 109.0-115.0 114.2
Wheat 258.1 257.0-259.5 258.3
2024-25
Average Range USDA April
Corn 317.4 312.0-321.2 N/A
Soybeans 120.0 109.5-130.2 N/A
Wheat 256.9 241.8-264.4 N/A
****
2024-25 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA 2023-24
All Wheat 1,895 1,775-1,952 1,812
Winter Wheat 1,311 1,210-1,395 1,248
Hard Red Winter 681 570-775 601
Soft Red Winter 413 343-486 449
White Winter 210 190-224 198
****
2023-24 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 122.5 120.0-125.6 124.0
Soybeans 152.6 147.0-155.0 155.0
2023-24 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 52.0 50.0-55.0 55.0
Soybeans 49.5 48.0-50.0 50.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher yesterday on reports of frosts and freezing temperatures in Russian growing areas Reports indicate that Russia will still have plenty of Wheat for export in the coming year so much of the rally was given back later in the session Traders were preparing for the USDA reports coming later this week.. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again and sales are not likely to improve anytime soon with the Dollar strength. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 610, 596, and 593 July, with resistance at 661, 667, and 673 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 664, 637, and 630 July, with resistance at 682, 688, and 604 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 747 July. Support is at 697, 686, and 671 July, and resistance is at 733, 738, and 746 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday. The futures market overall remained in a short term trading range. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the cold crop and the new crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1827, 1785, and 1750 July and resistance is at 1915, 1955, and 1972 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a littler lower and Oats closed higher yesterday on traders prepared for the next round of USDA reports to ne released later today. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is the driving force. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 470 July. Support is at 460, 454, and 450 July, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 483 July. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 383, 378, and 362 July, and resistance is at 402, 408, and 414 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed mostly lower yesterday as traders prepared for the USDA reports that will be released later today. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling on unharvested crops in southern Brazil. Rains up to 400 mm were reported by newswires. Ideas of less bio fuels demand have hurt Soybean Oil prices. Some selling from Brazil and Argentina was noted on the early rally attempt last week. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market. Funds remain short in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1248 July. Support is at 1401, 1221, and 1216 July, and resistance is at 1260, 1269, and 1280 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 375.00, 370.00, and 361.00 July, and resistance is at 390.00, 393.00, and 397.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4260, 4200, and 4140 July, with resistance at 4530, 4610, and 4690 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on weaker bio fuels demand but found some support late in the week on reports of strong demand from India and reports of reduced production. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was higher despite weaker prices in world vegetable oils markets. Farmers concentrate on fieldwork and not selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 660.00, 639.00, and 616.00 July, with resistance at 672.00, 679.00, and 589.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3790 and 3650 July. Support is at 3780, 3740, and 3700 July, with resistance at 3930, 4020, and 4040 July.

DJ Malaysia May 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Fell 15% on Month to 362,790 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the May 1-10 period are estimated down 15% on month at 362,790 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-10 April 1-9
RBD Palm Olein 68,865 137,993
RBD Palm Oil 23,997 81,845
RBD Palm Stearin 20,131 30,386
Crude Palm Oil 77,766 58,465
Total* 362,790 425,603
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Malaysia’s April Palm Oil Exports 1.23M Tons; Down 7%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 7% on month at 1.23 million metric tons in April, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the April crop data and revised numbers for March, issued by MPOB:
April March Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,501,941 1,392,471 Up 7.86%
Palm Oil Exports 1,234,208 1,326,666 Dn 6.97%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 80,335 82,389 Dn 2.49%
Palm Oil Imports 34,762 21,894 Up 58.77%
Closing Stocks 1,744,459 1,712,719 Up 1.85%
Crude Palm Oil 963,524 796,584 Up 20.96%
Processed Palm Oil 780,935 916,135 Dn 14.76%

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May

June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July

July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 178,390 lots, or 8.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,661 4,661 4,640 4,640 4,705 4,645 -60 137 654
Jul-24 4,684 4,696 4,591 4,597 4,670 4,630 -40 140,952 111,867
Sep-24 4,675 4,687 4,587 4,595 4,666 4,622 -44 32,267 40,551
Nov-24 4,624 4,637 4,554 4,565 4,619 4,584 -35 1,583 5,223
Jan-25 4,612 4,624 4,541 4,552 4,609 4,571 -38 3,004 7,997
Mar-25 4,604 4,615 4,540 4,547 4,602 4,571 -31 447 696
Corn
Turnover: 619,836 lots, or 1.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,420 2,421 2,408 2,421 2,420 2,417 -3 2,755 23,205
Jul-24 2,442 2,457 2,439 2,453 2,452 2,446 -6 408,313 708,415
Sep-24 2,466 2,477 2,459 2,472 2,473 2,466 -7 138,293 402,260
Nov-24 2,419 2,428 2,411 2,421 2,423 2,419 -4 36,060 166,238
Jan-25 2,403 2,413 2,397 2,408 2,408 2,404 -4 27,225 111,201
Mar-25 2,406 2,418 2,403 2,412 2,409 2,409 0 7,190 19,129
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,472,860 lots, or 8.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,411 3,411 3,411 3,411 3,474 3,411 -63 8 2,993
Jul-24 3,480 3,497 3,430 3,450 3,506 3,458 -48 71,929 144,564
Aug-24 3,561 3,572 3,503 3,518 3,582 3,535 -47 22,460 71,580
Sep-24 3,561 3,573 3,503 3,523 3,582 3,536 -46 2,077,687 2,262,983
Nov-24 3,559 3,571 3,501 3,522 3,577 3,533 -44 60,534 212,816
Dec-24 3,547 3,559 3,484 3,496 3,569 3,525 -44 11,014 29,542
Jan-25 3,492 3,506 3,432 3,446 3,514 3,460 -54 216,421 344,503
Mar-25 3,317 3,328 3,265 3,275 3,337 3,292 -45 12,807 27,333
Palm Oil
Turnover: 830,903 lots, or 60.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,666 7,700 7,520 7,698 7,690 7,622 -68 82 1,348
Jun-24 7,506 7,518 7,394 7,398 7,536 7,452 -84 21,934 9,700
Jul-24 7,444 7,458 7,308 7,330 7,484 7,370 -114 7,841 7,512
Aug-24 7,400 7,432 7,280 7,300 7,448 7,360 -88 937 1,081
Sep-24 7,382 7,422 7,250 7,286 7,438 7,326 -112 739,984 572,135
Oct-24 7,436 7,436 7,248 7,286 7,436 7,332 -104 272 495
Nov-24 7,426 7,426 7,244 7,284 7,426 7,322 -104 144 730
Dec-24 7,396 7,396 7,246 7,296 7,416 7,312 -104 103 552
Jan-25 7,360 7,396 7,242 7,302 7,418 7,300 -118 58,122 100,837
Feb-25 7,422 7,422 7,274 7,338 7,422 7,386 -36 269 152
Mar-25 7,398 7,432 7,320 7,376 7,442 7,370 -72 1,166 2,526
Apr-25 7,432 7,432 7,310 7,366 7,434 7,350 -84 49 67
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 626,902 lots, or 4.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,700 7,700 7,328 7,450 7,730 7,518 -212 10 2,041
Jul-24 7,624 7,656 7,488 7,508 7,682 7,546 -136 6,480 20,669
Aug-24 7,658 7,686 7,518 7,550 7,704 7,582 -122 372 15,497
Sep-24 7,684 7,714 7,542 7,570 7,728 7,610 -118 557,171 772,366
Nov-24 7,702 7,730 7,574 7,598 7,750 7,628 -122 876 8,689
Dec-24 7,768 7,790 7,642 7,662 7,808 7,694 -114 109 1,900
Jan-25 7,754 7,788 7,630 7,654 7,804 7,692 -112 60,593 132,896
Mar-25 7,674 7,706 7,580 7,616 7,710 7,634 -76 1,291 3,650
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322